Iowa State

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2485th
  Defense+0.0476th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.7%87th
  Defense39.0%80th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1922nd
  Defense+1.2833rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2088th
  Defense−0.0689th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2871st
  Defense+0.1363rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense55.1%91st
  Defense43.6%79th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.3%47th
  Defense30.3%67th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0972nd
  Defense2.6575th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.8%64th
  Defense23.9%83rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.7%83rd
  Defense18.1%70th

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Iowa State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   UL
2. W
   TCU
3. W
   OU
4. W
   TTU
5. L
   OKST
6. W
   KU
7. W
   BAY
8. W
   KSU
9. W
   TEX
10. W
    WVU
11. L
    OU
12. W
    ORE

Bars above the line: better than expected for Iowa State.

Players, 2020

1. Brock PurdyQB395 plays · +0.158 pts/play · 15th of 212 QBs
   1.17WAR0.51 to 1.87
2. Breece HallRB265 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 1st of 338 RBs
   0.97WAR0.72 to 1.21
3. Xavier HutchinsonWR81 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 35th of 409 WRs
   0.17WAR0.07 to 0.27
4. Charlie KolarTE58 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 1st of 191 TEs
   0.15WAR0.04 to 0.25
5. Kene NwangwuRB40 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 227th of 338 RBs
   0.13WAR0.10 to 0.15
6. Sean Shaw Jr.WR26 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 261st of 409 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.08
7. Landen AkersWR20 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 271st of 409 WRs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.07
8. Tarique MiltonWR21 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 285th of 409 WRs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Iowa State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  60360356th of 127Roster talent: 603, 56th of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  18718749th of 127Recruiting: 187, 49th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  75%75%38th of 127Returning production: 75%, 38th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +13.3+13.319th of 127SP+ rating: +13.3, 19th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Iowa State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at TCUQ4 4:05 4th & 2 at ISU 39, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
2. at OKSTQ2 6:27 4th & 2 at OKST 42, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
3. at TEXQ4 4:09 4th & 8 at ISU 37, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
4. vs OUQ3 7:42 4th & 1 at ISU 32, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
5. at TCUQ2 12:49 4th & 1 at ISU 27, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at TEXQ3 11:16 4th & 3 at ISU 46, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs TTUQ2 1:18 4th & 9 at TTU 35, up 14Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at TCUQ2 1:41 4th & 3 at TCU 7, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

20th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Iowa State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   UL
2. W

   TCU
3. W

   OU
4. W

   TTU
5. L

   OKST
6. W

   KU
7. W

   BAY
8. W

   KSU
9. W

   TEX
10. W

    WVU
11. L

    OU
12. W

    ORE

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Iowa State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.30
• Possession & field position+0.06
• Clock+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.36

Game by game

• ULL 14-31 vs UL82% → 2%Before kickoff +32 · On the field −80: Scoreboard −62, Clock −2
• TCUW 37-34 at TCU60% → 82%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +35, Clock +2
• OUW 37-30 vs OU31% → 98%Before kickoff −19 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +49
• TTUW 31-15 vs TTU77% → 97%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +26
• OKSTL 21-24 at OKST42% → 5%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −37: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts −2
• KUW 52-22 at KU96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +7
• BAYW 38-31 vs BAY83% → 96%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts +1
• KSUW 45-0 vs KSU83% → 100%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +20
• TEXW 23-20 at TEX50% → 87%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +39, Clock +4
• WVUW 42-6 vs WVU65% → 100%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +36
• OUL 21-27 vs OU38% → 6%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −44, Clock −3
• OREW 34-17 vs ORE63% → 99%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Iowa State's side.

Closest call

ISU 38-31 OU (2017) - Iowa State dropped to a 3.3% win probability before pulling it out.