2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:12 · Joe Rivera punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 1:18: Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 65 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +25.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:48: Gabe Brkic 51 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +14.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:17: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 3 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +25.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:26: Brock Purdy run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +31.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:06: Breece Hall run for 8 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +32.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:36OU 4th & 1 at ISU 1, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snapGo for it66.4%59% to convertField goalTheir call66.2%−0.294% to makePunt65.7%−0.7average punt
- Q1 8:38ISU 4th & 5 at OU 18, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snapGo for it34.6%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call34.6%79% to makePunt33.8%−0.8average punt
- Q1 5:00OU 4th & 1 at ISU 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.1%71% to convertField goal63.6%−0.587% to makePunt62.1%−1.9average punt
- Q2 14:45ISU 4th & 9 at OU 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snapGo for it32.6%−0.725% to convertField goalTheir call33.3%89% to makePunt29.1%−4.2average punt
- Q2 10:12ISU 4th & 6 at OU 42, down 11Close callPunted · 29.8% before the snapGo for it29.8%40% to convertField goal29.0%−0.830% to makePuntTheir call29.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 7:37OU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snapGo for it71.7%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.8%average punt
- Q2 0:00OU 4th & 19 at ISU 37, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snapGo for it60.9%−2.112% to convertField goalTheir call62.7%−0.340% to makePunt63.0%average punt
- Q3 8:19ISU 4th & 15 at OU 15, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snapGo for it33.9%−3.115% to convertField goalTheir call37.0%83% to makePunt27.7%−9.3average punt
- Q3 5:00OU 4th & 1 at ISU 46, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.1%70% to convertField goal52.4%−6.723% to makePunt55.0%−4.1average punt
- Q3 2:01OU 4th & 5 at ISU 16, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snapGo for it55.2%−0.939% to convertField goalTheir call56.2%81% to makePunt41.7%−14.5average punt
- Q4 12:48OU 4th & 12 at ISU 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snapGo for it35.4%−1.824% to convertField goalTheir call37.2%47% to makePunt35.1%−2.1average punt
- Q4 6:02OU 4th & 17 at OU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snapGo for it36.0%−12.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.3%average punt
- Q4 1:47OU 4th & 4 at OU 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.6%−3.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 3:59OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.8%97% to makeGo for two65.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:49OU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.9%97% to makeGo for two70.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:53ISU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.5%97% to makeGo for two35.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:18ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.0%97% to makeGo for two56.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:17OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.0%97% to makeGo for two73.7%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 7:26ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.0%97% to makeGo for two46.2%−0.845% to convert
- Q4 4:06ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.9%97% to makeGo for two83.2%−1.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1FG8 plays · 74 yds · 3:0569% → 68%
ISUDrive 2FG10 plays · 57 yds · 2:4532% → 34%
OUDrive 3TD11 plays · 85 yds · 4:2166% → 70%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
33.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 16 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+35
33.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Seth McGowan for 35 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
33.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 10 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
33.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 2 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4FG14 plays · 63 yds · 3:4832% → 35%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
31.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 21 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+7
32.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 7 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
33.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 22 yds to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+8
33.0%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Kolar, Charlie, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding 8 yards to the OKLAHOMA8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD8 plays · 67 yds · 2:1166% → 73%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
34.0%
Spencer Rattler run for 2 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+31
34.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 31 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+14
32.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 14 yds to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 1:0829% → 29%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
29.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 8 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
28.6%
Joe Rivera punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 2:0872% → 73%
ISUDrive 8TD9 plays · 85 yds · 3:2726% → 40%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+42
26.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 42 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
28.0%
Dylan Soehner pass complete to Chase Allen for 28 yds to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
28.2%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference 6 yards to the OKLAHOMA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9DOWNS11 plays · 13 yds · 3:3368% → 66%
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+18
31.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to T.J. Pledger for 18 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
29.6%
Rattler, Spencer pass complete to Pledger, T.J. for 9 yards to the IOWAST19, PENALTY OKLAHOMA personal foul 15 yards to the IOWAST43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 24
OPP 42
-1
32.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Seth McGowan for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 25
OPP 43
+6
33.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to T.J. Pledger for 6 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10FG17 plays · 58 yds · 6:0637% → 40%
Q3 12:45
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+13
40.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 13 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
42.5%
Nwangwu, Kene rush for 31 yards to the OKLAHOMA2, PENALTY IOWAST illegal formation 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+15
39.0%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Hutchinson, Xavier, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+12
40.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 12 yds to the Okla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-10
42.7%
Purdy, Brock pass complete to Hall, Breece for 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA4, PENALTY IOWAST holding 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA24, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11FG13 plays · 50 yds · 5:4961% → 71%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
39.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 10 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-9
36.4%
Rattler, Spencer rush for 4 yards to the IOWAST42, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding 9 yards to the OKLAHOMA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-3
38.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Charleston Rambo for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 41Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+9
39.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Drake Stoops for 9 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+11
34.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 11 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD5 plays · 75 yds · 0:3434% → 58%
OUDrive 13FG13 plays · 41 yds · 3:0243% → 52%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
56.8%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Aric Horne for a loss of 8 yards to the Okla 17Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+15
58.0%
Rattler, Spencer pass incomplete, PENALTY IOWAST personal foul 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+14
57.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Theo Howard for 14 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
56.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Seth McGowan for 8 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+15
53.8%
Rattler, Spencer pass incomplete to Rambo, Charleston, PENALTY IOWAST pass interference 15 yards to the IOWAST32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14FUMBLE6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2752% → 57%
Q4 11:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
52.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 8 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-4
56.8%
Brock Purdy sacked by Isaiah Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 39 Brock Purdy fumbled, forced by Isaiah Thomas, recovered by Okla Josh Ellison , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD4 plays · 39 yds · 1:4358% → 85%
ISUDrive 16TD4 plays · 13 yds · 0:2730% → 62%
Q4 7:30
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+9
29.7%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Kolar, Charlie, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference 9 yards to the OKLAHOMA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17Uncategorized6 plays · -7 yds · 1:1253% → 48%
ISUDrive 18TD4 plays · 55 yds · 1:4459% → 93%
Q4 5:08
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+10
58.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 10 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19INT11 plays · 31 yds · 2:3614% → 17%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 5 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
89.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Theo Wease for 6 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+8
88.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 8 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+12
85.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 12 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
83.0%
Spencer Rattler pass intercepted, touchback. Isheem Young return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4298% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:06
Breece Hall run for 8 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
+32.1
TD · Q4 7:26
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
+31.8
TD · Q3 1:18
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 65 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
+25.4