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ISU

Iowa State 23 at Texas 20

TEX
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2020 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:58 · Joe Rivera punt for 31 yds, downed at the Texas 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout marginScore differential
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Blowout margin+0.1Score differential+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:21: Cameron Dicker 42 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +3.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:21: Connor Assalley 26 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +3.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:30: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jared Wiley for 7 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +12.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:48: Connor Assalley 38 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +6.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:25: Breece Hall run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +54.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:29TEX 4th & 3 at ISU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:13ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:21TEX 4th & 5 at ISU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:38ISU 4th & 1 at TEX 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−2.0
    87% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−7.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:21ISU 4th & 8 at TEX 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−6.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:47TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00ISU 4th & 10 at TEX 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−7.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:16ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:54ISU 4th & 12 at TEX 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−9.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:37TEX 4th & 8 at ISU 48, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:48ISU 4th & 17 at TEX 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−4.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−11.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:05TEX 4th & 2 at ISU 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%−2.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−17.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:09ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 37, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:09TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−1.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:39TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:45ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:30TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:25ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:2250% → 51%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
49.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
49.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+59
50.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 59 yds to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
50.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 1Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
50.7%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 3Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
50.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Bijan RobinsonSimilar
Q1 11:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
50.9%
Cameron Dicker 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2749% → 49%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.7%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-1
50.6%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
50.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Breece HallSimilar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
51.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 3 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
51.4%
Joe Rivera punt for 31 yds, downed at the Texas 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1451% → 55%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
51.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 10 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
51.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 7
50
+18
51.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 18 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
52.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 18 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
52.5%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 17Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+17
54.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 17 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5046% → 49%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.8%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
54.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 5 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
54.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 7 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
54.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 1 yd to the Texas 40 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jacoby Jones) to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
53.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 5 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+5
54.0%
Hall, Breece rush for 1 yard to the TEXAS39, PENALTY TEXAS offside (Ossai, Joseph) 5 yards to the TEXAS35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
51.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:2152% → 54%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
52.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 8 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+13
53.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 13 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
53.3%
Roschon Johnson run for 11 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
54.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brenden SchoolerSimilar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+31
54.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tarik Black for 31 yds Tarik Black fumbled, forced by Isheem Young, recovered by IowSt Lawrence White IV , return for no gain to the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5147% → 46%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
53.2%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
53.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 6 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
53.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+4
53.9%
Joe Rivera punt for 37 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for 4 yds to the Texas 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:4454% → 58%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
53.9%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Moore, Joshua, PENALTY IOWAST pass interference (Kyle, Tayvonn) 15 yards to the IOWAST41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
54.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
54.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 12 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
54.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-2
54.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
55.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+5
53.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
57.5%
Cameron Dicker 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 7:5743% → 44%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.2%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
56.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 5 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
57.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Dylan Soehner for 20 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
56.1%
Breece Hall run for 7 yds to the Texas 37 IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derek Schweiger) to the Texas 47Similar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 13
OPP 47
+13
57.0%
Brock Purdy run for 13 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
55.7%
Kene Nwangwu run for 5 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+9
55.8%
Breece Hall run for 9 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
56.1%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 21Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+3
56.4%
Kene Nwangwu run for 3 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+7
57.8%
Brock Purdy run for 7 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+6
58.4%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the Texas 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
56.7%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the Texas 2Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
57.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Darrell Simmons Jr.) to the Texas 7Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
58.0%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Chase AllenSimilar
Q2 7:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
55.7%
Connor Assalley 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:2958% → 57%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
57.5%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+11
57.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 11 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
59.5%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
59.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jordan Whittington for no gain to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-6
59.3%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Latrell Bankston for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
57.1%
Cameron Dicker punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10DOWNS
21 plays · 60 yds · 3:4242% → 39%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
57.7%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 17Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-5
58.1%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Jake Remsburg) to the IowSt 12Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+14
58.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Dylan Soehner for 14 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
57.8%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
57.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
58.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 9 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
55.4%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
55.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 11 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
54.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Dylan Soehner for 9 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
53.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
53.2%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
55.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 16 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
54.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
54.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Xavier HutchinsonSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
58.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Xavier HutchinsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
61.3%
Connor Assalley 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:3942% → 42%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.6%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
57.0%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
57.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 6 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
56.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 4 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
55.3%
Kene Nwangwu run for 5 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-2
55.5%
Kene Nwangwu run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
57.8%
Joe Rivera punt for 43 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 3:4160% → 78%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
59.5%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
59.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 5 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+17
58.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 17 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
61.3%
Roschon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
63.5%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+45
63.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 45 yds to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
65.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
78.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jared Wiley for 7 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:3124% → 29%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
75.2%
Breece Hall run for 8 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
74.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 31 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
72.3%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+17
72.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 17 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
73.0%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the Texas 9Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
73.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Dylan Soehner for 4 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
75.1%
Brock Purdy sacked by Keondre Coburn for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 12Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
71.4%
Connor Assalley 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0079% → 76%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
50
0
79.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
50
+2
78.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
78.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 8
OPP 48
+5
76.3%
Cameron Dicker pass complete to Cade Brewer for 5 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:3928% → 34%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+44
71.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 44 yds to the Texas 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
67.8%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the Texas 10Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-10
68.0%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete, PENALTY IOWAST holding (Simmons Jr., Darrell) 10 yards to the TEXAS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 17
OPP 20
0
70.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 17
OPP 20
0
72.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 17
OPP 20
+38
66.5%
Connor Assalley 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16DOWNS
15 plays · 68 yds · 6:2968% → 74%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
68.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
68.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+15
66.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 15 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
70.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
71.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
71.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
72.6%
Johnson, Roschon rush for 4 yards to the IOWAST48, PENALTY TEXAS illegal motion (Eagles, Brennan) 5 yards to the TEXAS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+6
70.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+30
72.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 30 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
74.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 3 yds to the IowSt 18 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tarik Black) to the IowSt 28Similar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 17
OPP 28
+10
74.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 10 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
75.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+1
74.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the IowSt 13Similar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 2
OPP 13
0
74.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the IowSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:5232% → 25%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
67.7%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+6
68.2%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Shaw Jr., Sean, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Jamison, D'Shawn) 6 yards to the IOWAST24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
68.1%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+10
68.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Landen Akers for 10 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
66.6%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
66.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 5 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
66.4%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 3
OWN 42
-5
72.1%
IOWA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 37Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
75.1%
Joe Rivera punt for 39 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5584% → 82%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
83.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
84.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
83.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
82.0%
Cameron Dicker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:3627% → 91%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
72.6%
Breece Hall run for 18 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
68.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Dylan Soehner for 22 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
66.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 17 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
65.4%
Breece Hall run for 9 yds to the Texas 3Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
8.9%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20Uncategorized
16 plays · 37 yds · 1:0927% → 19%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
26.7%
Ehlinger, Sam rush for no gain to the TEXAS23, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Jones, Christian) 10 yards to the TEXAS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 20
OWN 13
0
24.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+9
23.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 9 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+13
20.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 13 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
22.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 13 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
25.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 9 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+7
29.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 7 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
22.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
22.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-4
19.2%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Latrell Bankston for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:25
Breece Hall run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
-54.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-13.2
TD · Q3 7:30
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jared Wiley for 7 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com