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ISU

Iowa State 37 at TCU 34

TCU
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:46 · Corey Dunn punt for 39 yds , Jd Spielman returns for 10 yds to the TCU 28 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the TCU 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense−21.2Pregame prior−1.2Score differential−10.4Garbage-time factor−11.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:39: Kene Nwangwu 49 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick) — ISU win probability +13.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:23: Taye Barber 27 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +25.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:52: Breece Hall 1 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick) — ISU win probability +14.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:51: Artayvious Lynn 48 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +35.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 2:54: Breece Hall 32 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick) — ISU win probability +15.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 9:54TCU 4th & 12 at ISU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:10ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:38TCU 4th & 13 at ISU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:38ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:49ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:10TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:41ISU 4th & 3 at TCU 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−7.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:04TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 44, down 9
    Numbers favored punt by 3.2 ptsWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.2%−3.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:05TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:53ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 36, up 9
    Close callPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:32TCU 4th & 15 at ISU 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:58ISU 4th & 14 at ISU 7, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−4.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:04TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 42, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:46ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 18, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−3.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:05ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 39, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 9:50ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:37TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:53ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:50TCU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:39ISU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:23TCU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:52ISU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:51TCU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−2.0
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:54ISU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1MISSED FG
16 plays · 43 yds · 4:5840% → 42%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
40.2%
Matthew Downing run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
40.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
40.5%
Matthew Downing run for 4 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
40.7%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
41.0%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 10 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
41.2%
Matthew Downing pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
41.2%
Matthew Downing run for 1 yd to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+11
41.1%
Emari Demercado run for 11 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
41.6%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+6
41.6%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 6 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
41.9%
Demercado, Emari rush for 1 yard to the IOWAST29, PENALTY TCU false start (Coker, Andrew) 5 yards to the IOWAST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+8
41.9%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 8 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
42.3%
Matthew Downing pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-5
42.1%
Matthew Downing sacked by JaQuan Bailey and Latrell Bankston for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+49
41.6%
Griffin Kell 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3758% → 58%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
41.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 6 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-2
41.5%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 36Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
42.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Landen AkersSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
42.4%
Joe Rivera punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:2742% → 43%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
42.3%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+17
42.2%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 17 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
42.9%
Taye Barber run for 4 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+16
43.4%
Darwin Barlow run for 16 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
43.7%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Emari Demercado for 10 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
44.0%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-5
44.4%
Matthew Downing sacked by JaQuan Bailey for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 13
OPP 33
0
43.8%
Matthew Downing pass incomplete to Daimarqua FosterSimilar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 13
OPP 33
0
43.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 33 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5457% → 57%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
43.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Dylan Soehner for 15 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
42.9%
Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 3 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
42.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 2 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
43.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
43.5%
Joe Rivera punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3844% → 45%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
44.2%
Taye Barber run for 8 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+8
45.0%
Emari Demercado run for 8 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
45.1%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
44.6%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
44.7%
Matthew Downing run for no gain to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+13
44.2%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 13 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
45.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Greg Eisworth II at the IowSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5856% → 55%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
43.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 3 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
44.2%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+6
44.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 6 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+51
45.3%
Joe Rivera punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jd Spielman at the TCU 32 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TCU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3446% → 45%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
45.7%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+15
45.9%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Taye Barber for 15 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
47.1%
Matthew Downing pass incomplete to Darwin BarlowSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
46.9%
Matthew Downing pass incomplete to Jd SpielmanSimilar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
46.1%
Matthew Downing pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
45.2%
Jordy Sandy punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Greg Eisworth II at the IowSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 87 yds · 1:1655% → 62%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
45.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 6 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+11
45.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Landen Akers for 11 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
44.7%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 25Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+75
37.8%
Breece Hall 75 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:0437% → 52%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
37.3%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Blair Conwright for 13 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
37.9%
Matthew Downing pass incomplete to Daimarqua FosterSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
37.7%
Matthew Downing run for 7 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
39.8%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Derius Davis for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
50
-1
40.6%
Taye Barber run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+11
38.6%
Matthew Downing run for 11 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
39.9%
Daimarqua Foster run for 3 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
39.9%
Daimarqua Foster run for no gain to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+37
51.7%
Quentin Johnston 37 Yd pass from Matthew Downing (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:5054% → 60%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Joe ScatesSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 7 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
45.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 4 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
45.2%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+49
45.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Landen Akers for 49 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
41.8%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
41.8%
Brock Purdy run for 6 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+1
42.8%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the TCU 7Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
40.1%
Connor Assalley 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:2743% → 43%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
43.2%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-13
43.3%
Matthew Downing sacked by JaQuan Bailey for a loss of 13 yards to the TCU 17 Matthew Downing fumbled, forced by JaQuan Bailey, recovered by IowSt JaQuan Bailey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0663% → 71%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
37.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Xavier HutchinsonSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
28.8%
Darren Wilson Jr. 17 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Connor Assalley PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:3133% → 31%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
32.7%
Matthew Downing run for 9 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+24
33.5%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Taye Barber for 24 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-9
35.2%
Matthew Downing sacked by JaQuan Bailey for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 18
OWN 44
0
32.0%
Matthew Downing pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr.Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 18
OWN 44
0
31.3%
Matthew Downing pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr.Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 18
OWN 44
0
31.0%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5569% → 60%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
31.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
30.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 5 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+24
40.4%
La'Kendrick Van Zandt 24 Yd Fumble Return (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0457% → 71%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.7%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+22
42.0%
Breece Hall run for 22 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
28.8%
Kene Nwangwu 49 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2932% → 30%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.7%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
31.5%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
30.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
29.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Greg Eisworth II at the IowSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0470% → 71%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
30.0%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
28.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Dylan Soehner for 3 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
29.1%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the IowSt 36Similar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
28.8%
Corey Dunn punt for 49 yds, downed at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 6:1529% → 26%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
29.2%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+8
28.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 8 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.8%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
28.9%
Miller, Kendre rush for 9 yards to the TCU37, PENALTY TCU holding 10 yards to the TCU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
28.2%
Kendre Miller run for 7 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+24
26.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 24 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
30.6%
Emari Demercado run for 8 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+5
31.4%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
30.9%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 16
OPP 44
-7
29.3%
Max Duggan sacked by Eyioma Uwazurike for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 23
OWN 49
+8
26.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 8 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
25.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Greg Eisworth II at the IowSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2774% → 74%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
25.8%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 12Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
25.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 9
OWN 12
-5
26.0%
Brock Purdy sacked by Parker Workman for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 7Similar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 14
OWN 7
+17
25.7%
Joe Rivera punt for 46 yds , Jd Spielman returns for 17 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:2628% → 53%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
28.0%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+27
53.2%
Taye Barber 27 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2359% → 81%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
40.7%
Brock Purdy run for 19 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+44
37.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Joe Scates for 44 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
35.3%
Breece Hall run for 8 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+1
35.2%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the TCU 3Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
36.1%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.9%
Purdy, Brock rush for no gain to the TCU1, PENALTY TCU offside 0 yards to the TCU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.2%
Breece Hall 1 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3723% → 17%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.1%
Jd Spielman run for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
23.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 12 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-14
23.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 24
OWN 28
0
20.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre MillerSimilar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 24
OWN 28
+14
19.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 14 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
16.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Greg Eisworth II at the IowSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:1281% → 84%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
18.7%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
17.2%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-5
16.3%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 18Similar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+10
16.5%
Corey Dunn punt for 39 yds , Jd Spielman returns for 10 yds to the TCU 28 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the TCU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:5018% → 54%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
17.8%
Derius Davis run for 10 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
18.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 4 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+48
54.0%
Artayvious Lynn 48 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3461% → 68%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
39.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 13 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
37.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 4 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-2
34.0%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+6
34.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 6 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
31.7%
Joe Rivera punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jd Spielman at the TCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26INT
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0543% → 45%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
43.3%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Lynn, Artayvious, PENALTY IOWAST personal foul 15 yards to the TCU36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
44.9%
Max Duggan pass intercepted Mike Rose return for no gain to the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:5774% → 93%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
26.2%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
22.5%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+32
7.2%
Breece Hall 32 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28END OF GAME
18 plays · 92 yds · 2:417% → 18%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
6.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 8 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+1
6.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 1 yd to the TCU 17Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 1
OWN 17
-8
5.8%
Duggan, Max pass complete to Barber, Taye for 23 yards to the TCU40, PENALTY TCU holding 8 yards to the TCU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+12
5.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jd Spielman for 12 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
6.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 9 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+8
6.3%
Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
6.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jd Spielman for 4 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+30
4.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 30 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
6.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 1 yd to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+8
6.5%
Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
6.0%
Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
6.7%
Max Duggan sacked by TEAM for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 19 TCU Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Max Duggan) to the IowSt 19Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-7
6.3%
Max Duggan sacked by Will McDonald IV for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 19
OPP 26
-5
5.1%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 31Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 24
OPP 31
+31
17.7%
Blair Conwright 31 Yd pass from Max Duggan Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:51
Artayvious Lynn 48 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)
+35.9
TD · Q3 0:23
Taye Barber 27 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)
+25.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com