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OKST

Oklahoma State 21 at Iowa State 24

ISU
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:15 · Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for no gain to the OKSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Pregame prior+20.9Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:59: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 42 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +13.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:21: Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +14.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:36: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 25 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +36.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:29: Breece Hall run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK) — ISU win probability +32.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:30: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 39 — ISU win probability +19.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:15ISU 4th & 1 at OKST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:21OKST 4th & 6 at ISU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:09ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:30ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:14OKST 4th & 2 at ISU 33, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:39ISU 4th & 1 at OKST 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−10.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:33OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:45ISU 4th & 13 at ISU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:34ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:02OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 40, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:48OKST 4th & 1 at ISU 15, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%−3.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−13.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:41ISU 4th & 8 at OKST 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−11.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:28OKST 4th & 14 at OKST 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−3.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:41ISU 4th & 2 at OKST 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−6.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−4.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:21OKST 4th & 21 at OKST 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−3.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:18ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 43, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:09OKST 4th & 2 at ISU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%−2.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−10.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:55OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:39ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:59OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:21ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:36OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:29ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:1572% → 72%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
71.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 34 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
71.8%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the OKSt 41Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
71.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 7 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
71.7%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
71.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for no gain to the OKSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2929% → 29%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
71.2%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+10
70.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 10 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
70.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
70.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braden CassitySimilar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
70.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
70.9%
Tom Hutton punt for 41 yds, downed at the IowSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0171% → 71%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
71.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 5 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
70.9%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 12Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
70.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
70.5%
Andrew Mevis punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the IowSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:5030% → 34%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
70.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 18 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
69.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
69.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+13
69.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 13 yds to the IowSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
69.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 5 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:5067% → 65%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-12
66.7%
Brock Purdy sacked by Devin Harper for a loss of 12 yards to the IowSt 10Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 22
OWN 10
+5
66.3%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 17
OWN 15
+10
65.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 10 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 7
OWN 25
-5
65.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 20Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 12
OWN 20
-4
65.0%
Andrew Mevis punt for 50 yds , Brennan Presley returns for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:0235% → 38%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
65.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+7
64.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
63.6%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the OKSt 38Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+21
63.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 21 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
61.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 8 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
61.4%
Spencer Sanders run for no gain to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
61.3%
Spencer Sanders run for no gain to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+50
62.0%
Tanner Brown 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
18 plays · 67 yds · 9:2163% → 68%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
62.9%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
62.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+1
62.9%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
62.7%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tanner McCalister) to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
63.2%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 48Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+11
62.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 11 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
62.0%
Breece Hall run for 8 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 2
OPP 29
-1
62.0%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 30Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+6
60.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
60.6%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
60.2%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+8
58.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jared Rus for 8 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
59.3%
Brock Purdy run for 6 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.0%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.6%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 4:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3737% → 35%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-14
62.7%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Hunter Anthony) to the OKSt 14Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
63.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+10
64.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 10 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
64.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2568% → 64%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
67.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
68.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-8
66.8%
Brock Purdy sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
63.9%
Andrew Mevis punt for 35 yds , Brennan Presley returns for no gain to the OKSt 28 Brennan Presley fumbled, recovered by OKSt Brennan PresleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 0:3138% → 55%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
62.0%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+25
62.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 25 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
58.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+42
45.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 42 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:2052% → 51%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 7 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
53.3%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
51.5%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+45
51.0%
Andrew Mevis punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the IOWAST 33 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Korie Black) to the OKSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
48.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1353% → 53%
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
47.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+7
47.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
45.7%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
46.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 2:1949% → 68%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+28
48.6%
Breece Hall run for 28 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
50.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for 5 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+36
51.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 51 yds to the IOWAST 3 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Xavier Hutchinson) to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
53.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+3
53.1%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the OKSt 9Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
67.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:1239% → 42%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
61.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 22 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
57.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Blaine Green for 13 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
57.2%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the IowSt 39Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
57.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Anthony Johnson Jr.) to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
55.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
55.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+4
56.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+32
58.3%
Tanner Brown 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:3463% → 70%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
63.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jared Rus for 10 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
63.7%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+15
65.8%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Christian Holmes) to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
67.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+6
67.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 6 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
67.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 7 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+13
68.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jarrick Bernard-Converse) to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
67.9%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
67.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
66.3%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
69.9%
Andrew Mevis 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:5231% → 29%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
68.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 7 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
67.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
67.1%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Eyioma Uwazurike for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
69.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
70.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
71.4%
Tom Hutton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:2969% → 74%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
68.9%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
68.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Collin Oliver) to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+10
70.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 10 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
74.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 7 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
75.4%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+3
74.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
50
+6
75.8%
Jirehl Brock run for 6 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+1
76.2%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
75.2%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
73.9%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the OKSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:2934% → 74%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
65.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+6
63.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
62.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+20
62.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 20 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
26.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 25 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:3140% → 80%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
40.2%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+30
39.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 30 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
43.9%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
50
+13
43.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 13 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+33
44.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 33 yds to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.8%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:0332% → 28%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
67.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-8
69.1%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Will McDonald IV for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 19Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 18
OWN 19
-3
71.2%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Will McDonald IV for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 16Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 21
OWN 16
0
72.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4280% → 83%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.4%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
81.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 5 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
82.8%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
83.4%
Andrew Mevis punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:5123% → 24%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
76.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 7 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
74.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 4 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
77.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
50
-5
72.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Tay Martin) to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+10
77.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 10 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
71.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+3
73.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
75.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 1 yd to the IowSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:3095% → 96%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-1
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:36
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 25 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)
-36.3
TD · Q4 5:29
Breece Hall run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)
+32.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:30
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 39
+19
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com