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TEX

Texas 7 at Iowa State 30

ISU
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG—ISU 99.7%Andrew Mevis 51 Yd Field GoalAWAY 7 - HOME 30 · Q4 4:29
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:29 · Andrew Mevis 51 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Pregame prior+1.4Home team on offense+33.1Score differential+22.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+22.3Garbage-time factor+12.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+9.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:29: Xavier Worthy 4 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Cameron Dicker Kick) — TEX win probability +10.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:45: Breece Hall 47 Yd Run (Andrew Mevis Kick) — ISU win probability +13.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:10: Tarique Milton 49 Yd pass from Xavier Hutchinson (Andrew Mevis Kick) — ISU win probability +13.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:00: Breece Hall 2 Yd Run (Andrew Mevis Kick) — ISU win probability +12.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 11:47: Andrew Mevis 29 Yd Field Goal — ISU win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TEX made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:27ISU 4th & 7 at TEX 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:09ISU 4th & 5 at TEX 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:01TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:21TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 27, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:51TEX 4th & 2 at ISU 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−0.9
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:07ISU 4th & 17 at ISU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:09ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:36TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:49ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:15TEX 4th & 19 at TEX 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:20TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−3.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:40ISU 4th & 4 at TEX 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:19TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:41TEX 4th & 19 at TEX 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−3.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:47TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:47ISU 4th & 5 at TEX 12, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−3.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:29ISU 4th & 8 at TEX 34, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:02TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 30, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:35ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 14, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TEX made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 5:29TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:45ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:10ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:00ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:2631% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
69.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 14 yds to the Texas 39 run for 14 yds to the Texas 39 Bijan Robinson fumbled, forced by Isheem Young, recovered by IowSt Isheem YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0769% → 69%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
69.3%
Breece Hall run for 11 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
69.3%
run for 8 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+10
69.3%
Brock Purdy run for 10 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
69.3%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
69.3%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
69.3%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
69.3%
Andrew Mevis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0631% → 31%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-4
69.1%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Bijan Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
69.2%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
69.4%
Cameron Dicker punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:1269% → 69%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
69.1%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+19
69.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 19 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
69.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 6 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+9
69.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 9 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
69.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 4 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-3
69.5%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 41Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+4
69.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 4 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+4
69.0%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the Texas 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0831% → 31%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
69.0%
Casey Thompson sacked by Eyioma Uwazurike and Will McDonald IV for 0 yards to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+6
69.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 6 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
69.4%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
69.1%
Cameron Dicker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
69.2%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+15
69.2%
HALL, Breece rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU28 (BROCKERMEYER, Luke). PENALTY TEX Personal Foul on OJOMO, Moro enforced 15 yards from the ISU30 to the ISU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
70.0%
PURDY, Brock scrambles to the left for a gain of 27 yards to the TEX28 (FORD, Jaylan), out of bounds. PENALTY ISU Holding on DOWNING, Trevor enforced 10 yards from the ISU45 to the ISU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+11
69.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 11 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
69.9%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
69.3%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2931% → 31%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
68.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
68.7%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+8
69.1%
Casey Thompson run for 8 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
69.5%
Cameron Dicker punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
69.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 24 yds to the Texas 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2032% → 32%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
67.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+6
67.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
67.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 2 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
67.5%
Roschon Johnson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-1
67.3%
Hudson Card run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
68.1%
Cameron Dicker punt for 38 yds, downed at the IowSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:4469% → 68%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
69.2%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the IowSt 4Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+10
69.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jared Rus for 10 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
68.9%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 14Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+10
68.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 10 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
69.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 23 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
70.3%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-10
70.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 16
OWN 41
0
69.3%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 16
OWN 41
-1
68.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 40Similar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
67.8%
Andrew Mevis punt for 38 yds, downed at the Texas 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 5:3830% → 43%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
70.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 3 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+24
70.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Joshua Moore for 24 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
68.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 14 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
68.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
67.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+3
68.4%
Hudson Card run for 3 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
67.4%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+4
67.4%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
67.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 6 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+6
67.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the IowSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
67.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 3Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
67.1%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 4Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
57.1%
Xavier Worthy 4 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2063% → 62%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
63.7%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
62.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
61.6%
Andrew Mevis punt for 31 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3342% → 36%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
58.4%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
59.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
58.8%
Hudson Card sacked by Eyioma Uwazurike for 0 yards to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
64.4%
Cameron Dicker punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:4761% → 60%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
60.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
61.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 2 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+4
60.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 4 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
61.7%
Jirehl Brock run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
61.0%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+4
60.2%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
60.3%
punt blocked by Kelvontay Dixon blocked by Kelvontay DixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:3437% → 33%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
62.6%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
63.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Cade Brewer for 3 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-15
63.3%
TEXAS Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unsportsmanlike Conduct on WORTHY, Xavier enforced (-15 Yards) to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
67.2%
Cameron Dicker punt for 38 yds, downed at the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1557% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
56.9%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
57.6%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Darrell Simmons Jr.) to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
55.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 10 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
57.8%
PURDY, Brock pass to the right incomplete intended for HUTCHINSON, Xavier thrown to the TEX28. PENALTY TEX Pass Interference on THOMPSON, Josh enforced 15 yards to the TEX47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
71.3%
Breece Hall 47 Yd Run (Andrew Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:1833% → 31%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
66.9%
Hudson Card run for 1 yd to the Texas 21Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
67.2%
Hudson Card pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 5 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
69.4%
Cameron Dicker punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:4070% → 68%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.5%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
68.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 10 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
71.3%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Jarrod Hufford) to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+5
69.7%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
69.2%
Brock Purdy sacked by Byron Murphy II for 0 yards to the IowSt 45Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+7
67.6%
Brock Purdy run for 7 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
68.1%
Corey Dunn punt for 44 yds, downed at the Texas 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2134% → 31%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
66.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+1
66.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 8Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
67.9%
Hudson Card pass incomplete TEXAS Penalty, Holding Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on IMADE, Tope (Christian Jones) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
68.8%
Cameron Dicker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the Texas 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21TD
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
84.7%
Tarique Milton 49 Yd pass from Xavier Hutchinson (Andrew Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2220% → 19%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
79.7%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 20Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
80.0%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Christian Jones) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
81.0%
Hudson Card sacked by Will McDonald IV for 0 yards to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
81.5%
Cameron Dicker punt for 38 yds, downed at the Texas 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:4185% → 97%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
85.2%
Breece Hall run for 21 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
85.4%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+23
84.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 23 yds to the Texas 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.8%
Breece Hall 2 Yd Run (Andrew Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:138% → 7%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Joshua Moore for 8 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
91.9%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Junior Angilau) to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
92.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 9 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
91.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
92.0%
Hudson Card sacked for 0 yards to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
92.1%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
93.5%
Cameron Dicker punt for 59 yds, downed at the IowSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25FG
13 plays · 86 yds · 5:0098% → 100%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
97.9%
Breece Hall run for 7 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+11
97.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 11 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
97.3%
Breece Hall run for 7 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
97.9%
TEXAS Penalty, Offsides (Moro Ojomo) to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
97.9%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+16
97.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 16 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
98.1%
Breece Hall run for 12 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
98.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 19 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
98.0%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
98.1%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the Texas 12Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
98.0%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
99.6%
Andrew Mevis 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26FUMBLE
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:181% → 1%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
98.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to Cade Brewer for no gain to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
98.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+8
98.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for 8 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
99.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 9 yds to the IowSt 38 TEXAS Penalty, Holding Holding on ANGILAU, Junior (Cade Brewer) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 5:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
99.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 15 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.8%
Jirehl Brock run for 5 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
99.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 3 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
99.7%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
99.8%
Deon Silas run for 4 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+4
99.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 4 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-1
99.7%
Jirehl Brock run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 3
OPP 29
-5
99.7%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Joey Ramos) to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
99.7%
Andrew Mevis 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+18
99.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 18 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 2 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Cameron Dicker punt for 45 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for no gain to the IowSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
99.8%
Deon Silas run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+1
99.8%
Deon Silas run for 1 yd to the IowSt 15Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 11
OWN 15
-1
99.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 12
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Andrew Mevis punt for 43 yds, downed at the Texas 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.7%
Keilan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
99.7%
Keilan Robinson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.7%
Keilan Robinson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:10
Tarique Milton 49 Yd pass from Xavier Hutchinson (Andrew Mevis Kick)
+13.5
TD · Q3 12:45
Breece Hall 47 Yd Run (Andrew Mevis Kick)
+13.4
TD · Q3 4:00
Breece Hall 2 Yd Run (Andrew Mevis Kick)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com