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ISU

Iowa State 42 at Kansas State 35

KSU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [SG] Kneel down by ISU at ISU9 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:36: Will Howard run for 5 yds for a TD (Will Howard pass to Phillip Brooks for Two-Point Conversion) — KSU win probability +16.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:53: Abu Sama III run for 60 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK) — ISU win probability +18.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:49: Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +19.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:31: Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 33 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK) — ISU win probability +26.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:04: Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 82 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK) — ISU win probability +32.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 13:21KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:17KSU 4th & 5 at ISU 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:45ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:16KSU 4th & 5 at ISU 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:10ISU 4th & 22 at midfield, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:11KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 28, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:28ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 35, up 1
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:04KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:53KSU 4th & 4 at ISU 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:25KSU 4th & 3 at ISU 48, up 6
    Close callPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:53KSU 4th & 3 at ISU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−1.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:07KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:47ISU 4th & 7 at KSU 38, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.7%−1.0
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:47KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 17, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:49KSU 4th & 8 at ISU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−3.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−5.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:42ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:47ISU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:55KSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:15KSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:37ISU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:36KSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:53ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:49KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:31ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:04ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
74.3%
Abu Sama III run for 71 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:1474% → 74%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
74.2%
Iowa State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the KSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
74.2%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 29Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
74.2%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q1 14:35
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
74.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
73.6%
Jack Blumer punt for 48 yds, downed at the ISU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:2826% → 27%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
73.6%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 20Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+11
73.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Abu Sama III for 11 yds to the ISU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
72.8%
Abu Sama III run for 8 yds to the ISU 39 Abu Sama III fumbled, recovered by KSU Austin Moore [NHSG] SAMA, Abu rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards, SAMA, Abu fumbled at ISU36 forced by PURNELL, Desmond, recovered by KSU MOORE, Austin at the ISU39, returned 0 yards to the ISU39, End of Play, clock 11:53.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:3673% → 72%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
73.1%
Will Howard run for 5 yds to the ISU 34Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
73.2%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the ISU 30Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+5
73.1%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the ISU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
73.2%
HOWARD, Will pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for GARCIA II, RJ thrown to the ISU0. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on TAMPA, T.J. enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the ISU11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
73.2%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 12Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
73.2%
Will Howard run for 10 yds to the ISU 2Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
73.1%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 5Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
72.3%
Chris Tennant 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3228% → 28%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.0%
Carson Hansen run for 6 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
72.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 30Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
71.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 44 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for no gain to the KSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6FG
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:2971% → 71%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
71.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the KSU 21Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+6
71.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the KSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
71.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
71.8%
Will Howard run for 5 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
71.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 13 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
72.1%
HOWARD, Will pass up the middle complete for 26 yards to BROOKS, Phillip caught at the ISU42 and advanced to the ISU23 (MCLAUGHLIN, Will;SURGES, Drew). PENALTY KSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BEEBE, Cooper enforced 5 yards from the ISU49 to the KSU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+20
71.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 20 yds to the ISU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
72.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+13
72.4%
Will Howard run for 13 yds to the ISU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
72.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 9 yds to the ISU 9Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+2
72.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the ISU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
72.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 2 yds to the ISU 5Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.4%
Will Howard run for no gain to the ISU 5Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.1%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
70.7%
Chris Tennant 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:1331% → 36%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
69.3%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ISU 23Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+77
64.1%
Abu Sama III run for 77 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 5:4464% → 70%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
63.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 7 yds to the KSU 20Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+6
64.0%
DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the KSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
64.0%
HOWARD, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for GIDDENS, DJ thrown to the KSU32. PENALTY ISU Holding on TAMPA, T.J. enforced 10 yards from the KSU26 to the KSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
64.2%
Will Howard run for 8 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+25
65.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 25 yds to the ISU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
66.2%
DJ Giddens run for 7 yds to the ISU 24Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+4
66.2%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the ISU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
66.2%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the ISU 18Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
66.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:39
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+15
65.4%
DJ Giddens run for 15 yds to the ISU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
66.2%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the ISU 1Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.2%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the ISU 1Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.1%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:4034% → 34%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+31
66.5%
Abu Sama III run for 31 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-18
65.0%
run for a loss of 18 yards to the ISU 44 fumbled, recovered by ISU Rocco Becht [NHSG] ISU rush up the middle for a loss of 18 yards, fumbled at KSU38 , recovered by ISU BECHT, Rocco at the ISU44, returned 0 yards to the ISU44, End of Play.Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 28
OWN 44
0
66.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for no gain to the ISU 44Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 28
OWN 44
+6
67.0%
Carson Hansen run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 22
50
0
65.7%
Tyler Perkins punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5966% → 65%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
66.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the KSU 20Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+3
66.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 3 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+5
65.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
64.5%
Jack Blumer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4337% → 36%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
63.5%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ISU 30Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
63.9%
Abu Sama III run for 5 yds to the ISU 35Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
63.8%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
64.1%
Tyler Perkins punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2465% → 62%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
64.9%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 30Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
64.6%
Will Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 28Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
63.4%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
62.0%
Jack Blumer punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:4967% → 78%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
67.4%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
66.9%
DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the ISU 35Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
66.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+6
65.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 6 yds to the ISU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
68.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 14 yds to the ISU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
68.3%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
68.3%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
77.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 15 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
75.6%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:2876% → 77%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
76.4%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
76.2%
DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
76.5%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
76.6%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
76.5%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 34Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+11
75.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 11 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
78.0%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (Ben Sinnott) to the KSU 40Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
77.1%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
76.9%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+12
76.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 12 yds to the ISU 48Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
76.5%
Jack Blumer punt for 30 yds, downed at the ISU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:4826% → 39%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
74.1%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ISU 21Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+79
60.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 79 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:5562% → 83%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
61.7%
DJ Giddens run for 11 yds to the KSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
62.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
62.0%
Will Howard run for 3 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+44
61.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 44 yds to the ISU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
66.9%
DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the ISU 15Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-1
66.9%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 16Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+7
65.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 7 yds to the ISU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
66.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 4 yds to the ISU 5Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.1%
Will Howard run for 5 yds for a TD (Will Howard pass to Phillip Brooks for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:3723% → 42%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
76.8%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
77.3%
Abu Sama III run for 8 yds to the ISU 36Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+4
76.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Stevo Klotz for 4 yds to the ISU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
57.9%
Abu Sama III run for 60 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0464% → 87%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
65.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
66.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 4
50
0
67.8%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 4
50
+13
66.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Will Swanson for 13 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
68.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the ISU 34Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
69.0%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+4
67.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 4 yds to the ISU 30Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+18
65.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Jayce Brown for 18 yds to the ISU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
68.3%
Will Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+13
68.0%
HOWARD, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for OAKLEY, Garrett thrown to the ISU0. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on SURGES, Drew enforced 13 yards to the ISU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 2:0822% → 49%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
78.2%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ISU 44Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
77.1%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 45Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+22
77.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 22 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
50.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 33 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2462% → 62%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
61.6%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 24Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
61.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 14 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
63.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 4 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
65.4%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
64.3%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
61.7%
Jack Blumer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 2:0344% → 75%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
56.4%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ISU 24Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
56.7%
BECHT, Rocco pass short up the middle complete for 7 yards to HANSEN, Carson caught at the ISU25 and advanced to the ISU31 (MATLACK, Nate). PENALTY ISU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HUFFORD, Jarrod enforced 5 yards from the ISU24 to the ISU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 15
OWN 19
-1
57.2%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 18Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 16
OWN 18
+82
25.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 82 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4029% → 29%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.1%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the KSU 26Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.5%
Will Howard pass intercepted Gerry Vaughn return for no gain to the KSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3781% → 82%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
19.4%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-1
19.2%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 38Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
19.9%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
18.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 36 yds, downed at the KSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25DOWNS
21 plays · 80 yds · 4:5824% → 16%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
23.9%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the KSU 10Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+1
23.6%
Keagan Johnson run for 1 yd to the KSU 11Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+3
22.3%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
23.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
23.3%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 17Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
22.3%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 7
OWN 17
+10
20.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 10 yds to the KSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
24.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 22 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
28.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
27.4%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+2
17.5%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the ISU 49Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+15
17.2%
HOWARD, Will pass deep to the left incomplete intended for OAKLEY, Garrett thrown to the ISU15. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on FREYLER, Beau enforced 15 yards to the ISU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
24.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
23.1%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the ISU 26Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+6
23.4%
DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the ISU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
26.3%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
23.7%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the ISU 18Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
20.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 8
OPP 18
0
15.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:4594% → 95%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
5.9%
[SG] Kneel down by ISU at ISU12 (team loss of 6).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 12
0
5.2%
[SG] Kneel down by ISU at ISU9 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:04
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 82 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)
-32.2
TD · Q4 12:31
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 33 yds for a TD (Chase Contreraz KICK)
-26.7
TD · Q4 14:49
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
+19.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com