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BAY

Baylor 49 at Iowa State 28

ISU
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · Silas Nacita run for 4 yds to the IowSt 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:26: Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 11 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +2.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:51: Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 25 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +2.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:45: Shock Linwood run for 24 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +3.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:52: Sam B. Richardson run for 47 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +3.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:01: Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +5.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 14:04BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:02ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:43ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:52ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:40BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:06BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:47ISU 4th & 14 at BAY 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:54ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:07ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 17, down 28
    Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:49BAY 4th & 8 at ISU 33, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:29BAY 4th & 1 at ISU 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:51BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 33, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:31ISU 4th & 18 at ISU 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:58BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.5%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:01ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:43BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 3, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:19ISU 4th & 1 at BAY 24, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:07BAY 4th & 6 at ISU 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:06BAY 4th & 3 at ISU 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:58BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:51BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:26ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:51BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:45BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:36BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:52ISU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:06BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:01ISU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:54BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:42ISU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5293% → 93%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.8%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
6.8%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
7.1%
Spencer Roth punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the IowSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:517% → 8%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
7.1%
Aaron Wimberly run for no gain to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
7.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Brock Dagel) to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+4
7.3%
Aaron Wimberly run for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+1
7.5%
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
7.7%
Colin Downing punt for 41 yds , Cal Spangler returns for no gain to the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 1:5292% → 92%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+31
7.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 31 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
7.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Encroachment (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 41Similar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+6
7.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+10
7.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 10 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
8.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 11 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
8.1%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
8.1%
Bryce Petty run for 2 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
8.3%
IOWA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Sam E. Richardson) to the IowSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.8%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:498% → 8%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
8.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 5 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
8.2%
DeVondrick Nealy run for no gain to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
8.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jarvis WestSimilar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
8.1%
Colin Downing punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cal Spangler at the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4492% → 93%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
8.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 42 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
8.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 11 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
8.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
7.4%
Bryce Petty run for 16 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:488% → 8%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
7.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jarvis WestSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
7.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Tad EcbySimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-6
7.7%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 22Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 16
OWN 22
0
7.8%
Colin Downing punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cal Spangler at the Bayl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0093% → 92%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
7.5%
KD Cannon run for 8 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-5
7.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
7.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
7.6%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
7.7%
Spencer Roth punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the IowSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 2:548% → 11%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
7.9%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 2 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
8.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Aaron WimberlySimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+27
8.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 27 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
8.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
8.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ishmael Zamora) to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
8.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 9 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
8.2%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
8.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+24
8.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 24 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
8.4%
Sam B. Richardson run for 7 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+11
10.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 11 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1090% → 90%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
9.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
9.9%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+11
9.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+2
9.9%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
10.2%
Spencer Roth punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the IowSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:1010% → 11%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
10.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
10.1%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+12
10.1%
Sam B. Richardson run for 12 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
10.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted Orion Stewart return for no gain to the IowSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 0:5690% → 92%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
9.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
9.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 5 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
9.9%
Bryce Petty run for 5 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+25
8.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 25 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:189% → 9%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
8.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
8.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 7 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1492% → 92%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
8.3%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
8.4%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+10
8.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 10 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
8.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 2 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
8.1%
Bryce Petty pass intercepted T.J. Mutcherson return for 3 yds to the IowSt 49 T.J. Mutcherson fumbled, recovered by IowSt Levi PetersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:389% → 9%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
9.0%
Aaron Wimberly run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 48Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+13
9.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 13 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
9.2%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Jamal Palmer for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
8.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 14
OPP 43
0
8.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
8.7%
Holden Kramer punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Cal Spangler at the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 0:4792% → 95%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
8.5%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+12
8.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 12 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
8.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
50
+26
8.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (T.J. Mutcherson) to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
4.8%
Shock Linwood run for 24 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:266% → 6%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
6.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 23Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
6.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
6.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to DeVondrick NealySimilar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+7
6.2%
Colin Downing punt for 48 yds , Cal Spangler returns for 7 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:0695% → 95%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
5.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
5.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 5 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
5.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
5.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
4.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
5.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
5.0%
Bryce Petty run for 6 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+9
4.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 9 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
4.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 8 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
4.7%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+5
4.9%
Bryce Petty run for 5 yds to the IowSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
4.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:014% → 3%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
4.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 2 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
4.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
2.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
2.7%
Colin Downing punt for 41 yds, downed at the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 25 yds · 2:1195% → 96%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
5.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
5.1%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+7
5.3%
Bryce Petty run for 7 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+5
5.1%
IOWA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
5.0%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
4.2%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+4
3.6%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
3.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
3.8%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
3.6%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
4.2%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:202% → 2%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
1.8%
Martinez Syria run for 4 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
1.5%
Martinez Syria run for no gain to the IowSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:583% → 7%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
2.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 10 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
2.7%
Martinez Syria run for 3 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
3.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+15
3.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
6.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 47 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
6.7%
Netten, Cole kickoff 16 yards to the BAYLOR49, on-side kick, recovered by BAYLOR on IOWAST49, PENALTY IOWAST illegal procedure 5 yards to the IOWAST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22DOWNS TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:2496% → 98%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
4.4%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
4.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 5 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
4.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for no gain to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+4
4.3%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
3.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Davion Hall for 8 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+19
3.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 19 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
3.5%
Bryce Petty run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 7Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.0%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:553% → 8%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.6%
Aaron Wimberly run for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
2.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
2.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 8 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
2.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 3 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
2.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the IowSt 45Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
2.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+21
2.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 21 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
3.1%
Aaron Wimberly run for no gain to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
2.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+13
2.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 13 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
3.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
2.8%
Sam B. Richardson run for no gain to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+20
2.6%
Sam B. Richardson run for 20 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.7%
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4998% → 98%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Gus Penning for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
2.1%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
1.9%
Bryce Petty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
1.9%
Spencer Roth punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the IowSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:133% → 3%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
3.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 12 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
3.5%
Martinez Syria run for 3 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-17
3.4%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Beau Blackshear for a loss of 17 yards to the IowSt 24 IOWA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Sam B. Richardson) to the IowSt 24Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 24
OWN 24
+6
3.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Martinez Syria for 6 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
3.0%
Colin Downing punt for 38 yds , Cal Spangler returns for no gain to the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 2:2699% → 99%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
1.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-5
1.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the Bayl 46 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
1.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 5 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
1.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for no gain to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+3
1.3%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+42
1.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 42 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
1.0%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+4
1.0%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the IowSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.0%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the IowSt 1Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.7%
Bryce Petty run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:291% → 1%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
0.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
0.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
0.9%
Colin Downing punt for 64 yds, downed at the Bayl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0599% → 99%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
0.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for no gain to the Bayl 5Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+2
0.6%
Seth Russell run for 2 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 7
-3
0.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Blake Muir) to the Bayl 4Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 11
OWN 4
-1
0.7%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 3Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 12
OWN 3
0
0.7%
Spencer Roth punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the Bayl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:040% → 0%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
0.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 6 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
0.4%
Sam B. Richardson run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+5
0.4%
Martinez Syria run for 5 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
0.4%
Martinez Syria run for 1 yd to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+8
0.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 8 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
0.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for no gain to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 1
OPP 24
-5
0.2%
Martinez Syria run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
0.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
0.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+9
0.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Clay Fuller for 9 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
0.2%
Seth Russell run for 12 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
0.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Clay Fuller for 12 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
0.2%
Seth Russell run for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
0.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Clay FullerSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
0.2%
Chris Callahan 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 31TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:190% → 1%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tion Wright) to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
0.1%
Sam B. Richardson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
0.1%
Martinez Syria run for 4 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+51
1.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Tad Ecby for 51 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 32END OF GAME
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:10100% → 100%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Clay FullerSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
0.4%
Silas Nacita run for 3 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+4
0.4%
Silas Nacita run for 4 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+18
0.4%
Seth Russell run for 18 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
0.3%
Seth Russell run for 9 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+2
0.3%
Silas Nacita run for 2 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
0.3%
Silas Nacita run for 2 yds to the IowSt 4Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
0.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 9Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
0.3%
Silas Nacita run for 4 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:01
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q3 13:52
Sam B. Richardson run for 47 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q2 8:45
Shock Linwood run for 24 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com