2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreISU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:28 · Jaylon Jackson run for 2 yds to the HOU 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 2:12: Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +11.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:39: Kyle Konrardy 34 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +6.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:26: Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the HOU 6 — HOU win probability +5.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:38: Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ISU 23 — ISU win probability +7.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:39: Abu Sama III run for 77 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +4.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 12:36HOU 4th & 4 at ISU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.9%48% to convertField goal16.9%−0.151% to makePunt16.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:06ISU 4th & 2 at HOU 5, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snapGo for it80.8%51% to convertField goalTheir call80.6%−0.292% to makePunt79.7%−1.0average punt
- Q1 5:25HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it19.4%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q1 2:35ISU 4th & 4 at HOU 45, up 3Close callPunted · 79.2% before the snapGo for it79.4%48% to convertField goal78.8%−0.525% to makePuntTheir call79.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:11HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it21.8%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.3%average punt
- Q2 13:06ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 9, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snapGo for it75.7%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.2%average punt
- Q2 11:07HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 47, down 3Close callPunted · 24.0% before the snapGo for it24.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 8:26ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 43, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snapGo for it74.8%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.3%average punt
- Q2 6:13HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 37, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%average punt
- Q2 0:47ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 45, up 3Close callPunted · 73.6% before the snapGo for it73.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.1%−0.6average punt
- Q3 9:09ISU 4th & 18 at HOU 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snapGo for it66.0%−3.312% to convertField goalTheir call69.3%68% to makePunt60.7%−8.5average punt
- Q3 4:50HOU 4th & 11 at ISU 39, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it32.6%−0.227% to convertField goal32.6%−0.236% to makePuntTheir call32.7%average punt
- Q4 11:39ISU 4th & 7 at HOU 16, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.0% before the snapGo for it82.6%−0.735% to convertField goalTheir call83.3%81% to makePunt75.2%−8.1average punt
- Q4 4:13HOU 4th & 16 at HOU 19, down 20Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q3 2:12ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.7%97% to makeGo for two82.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:39ISU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHOUDrive 1DOWNS6 plays · 45 yds · 2:2414% → 15%
Q1 12:36
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+2
15.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 2 yds to the ISU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2FG11 plays · 65 yds · 5:2585% → 83%
Q1 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+13
15.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 13 yds to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+7
15.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 7 yds to the HOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+10
15.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 10 yds to the HOU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4117% → 18%
Q1 5:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
17.5%
Liam Dougherty punt for 43 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for no gain to the ISU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4282% → 81%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
18.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 3 yds to the ISU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 3:2319% → 20%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
18.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jonah Wilson for 6 yds to the HOU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-15
20.5%
(15:00) SMITH, Donovan pass up the middle complete for 0 yards to WILLIAMS, Devan caught at the HOU48 and advanced to the HOU48 (KLOSTERMAN, John), clock 14:54. PENALTY HOU Chop Block on SNEED, Stacy enforced 15 yards from the HOU48 to the HOU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5679% → 78%
HOUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5322% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3378% → 77%
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
22.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 4 yds to the ISU 24Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
22.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 14 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
23.0%
Tyler Perkins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0723% → 23%
ISUDrive 10PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 5:2177% → 76%
Q2 5:28
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+10
23.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 10 yds to the ISU 21Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+8
24.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 8 yds to the ISU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
22.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 3 yds to the ISU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
25.4%
(00:42) [NH] Kneel down by SMITH, Donovan at HOU11 (team loss of 2), clock 00:34.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12MISSED FG13 plays · 51 yds · 5:5174% → 71%
Q3 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
25.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 7 yds to the ISU 32Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+9
25.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+20
25.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 20 yds to the HOU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
24.6%
(11:16) BECHT, Rocco pass deep up the middle complete for 16 yards to HIGGINS, Jayden caught at the HOU0 and advanced to the HOU0, TOUCHDOWN ISU, score nullified by penalty, clock 11:14 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY ISU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BARRETT, Dylan enforced 5 yards from the HOU16 to the HOU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 15
OPP 21
-1
24.9%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 22 Carson Hansen fumbled, recovered by ISU Carson Hansen C. Hansen return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+5
25.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the HOU 17Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 11
OPP 17
-7
25.6%
Rocco Becht sacked by Anthony Holmes Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the HOU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 4:0830% → 31%
Q3 6:23
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-10
35.6%
(06:23) CHRISS, Zeon pass to the left incomplete intended for MEWS, Mekhi broken up by WILLIAMS, Jontez at the ISU23, clock 06:17. PENALTY HOU Holding on HUNTER, Demetrius enforced 10 yards from the ISU37 to the ISU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:3171% → 85%
HOUDrive 15FUMBLE3 plays · 19 yds · 1:0717% → 16%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
17.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jayden York for 1 yd to the HOU 29Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-1
16.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 14 yds Stephon Johnson fumbled, recovered by ISU Jacob Ellis J. Ellis return for 0 yds Houston Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Maliq Carr) to the HOU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16FG7 plays · 16 yds · 3:5886% → 92%
HOUDrive 17INT9 plays · 72 yds · 4:3913% → 13%
Q4 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+15
12.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jayden York for 15 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
11.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 20 yds to the HOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
12.6%
Donovan Smith run for 10 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST down Iowa State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Myles Purchase) to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
12.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 7 yds to the ISU 32Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
13.0%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted, touchback. Jontez Williams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD2 plays · 80 yds · 0:5995% → 99%
HOUDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 17 yds · 1:261% → 1%
ISUDrive 20END OF GAME6 plays · 18 yds · 3:4299% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:12
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)
-11.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:38
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ISU 23
-7.6
FG · Q4 11:39
Kyle Konrardy 34 yd FG GOOD
-6