ARDLINETry the model
IS

Iowa State 42 at Miami 41

MIA
2024 · Week 1 · Dec 28, 2024 · Camping World Stadium
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadIS aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTD
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Jace T. Gilbert kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:53
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ISU Cael Brezina
+1.6
Q1 14:53
Miami Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ahmad Moten Sr.) to the MIA 17
-4.2
Q1 14:48
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the MIA 16
0.0
Q1 14:13
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Isaiah Alston
-0.1
Q1 14:08
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 3 yds to the MIA 13
0.0
Q1 13:19
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the MIA 9 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q1 12:34
Rocco Becht run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 12 Rocco Becht fumbled, recovered by ISU Rocco Becht
-0.6
Q1 12:03
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 3 yds to the MIA 9
0.0
Q1 11:23
Gabe Burkle 9 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
-15.2
Q1 11:23
Jace T. Gilbert kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.8
Q1 11:10
Damien Martinez 75 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)
+17.9
Q1 11:10
Andres Borregales kickoff for 55 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 11:07
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the ISU 25
-2.3
Q1 10:29
Rocco Becht run for 10 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:00
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 20 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 9:25
Jaylin Noel run for 12 yds to the MIA 33 for a 1ST down
-2.0
Q1 8:54
Rocco Becht pass complete to Eli Green for 3 yds to the MIA 30
-0.4
Q1 8:34
Carson Hansen 30 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
-15.3
Q1 8:34
Jace T. Gilbert kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.8
Q1 8:29
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MIA 30
+3.2
Q1 7:48
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 3 yds to the MIA 33
0.0
Q1 7:04
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:22
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 44
-0.2
Q1 5:41
Cam Ward pass complete to Elija Lofton for 17 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q1 4:58
Ward, Cam pass incomplete to Lofton, Elija, PENALTY IOWAST pass interference (Freyler, Beau) 15 yards to the IOWAST24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.
+2.2
Q1 4:51
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 20 yds to the ISU 4 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 4:12
Jacolby George 4 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)
+13.7
Q1 4:12
Andres Borregales kickoff for 60 yds
-1.8
Q1 4:12
Rocco Becht pass incomplete
-2.4
Q1 4:05
Aiden Flora run for 12 yds to the ISU 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 3:24
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Eli Green
-1.9
Q1 3:19
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q1 2:35
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 49 yds to the MIA 1 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Roughing Passer (Yards) to the MIA 1 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 2:23
Carson Hansen 1 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
-15.4
Q1 2:23
Jace T. Gilbert kickoff for 40 yds , Syncere Sampson return for no gain to the MIA 25
+1.8
Q1 2:18
Jordan Lyle run for 4 yds to the MIA 29
+3.2
Q1 1:45
Jordan Lyle run for 5 yds to the MIA 34
+0.1
Q1 1:05
Cam Ward run for 2 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 0:27
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Jacolby George
0.0
Q1 0:21
Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 39
0.0
Q2 14:55
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 24 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 14:25
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Ray Ray Joseph
+2.7
Q2 14:21
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 40
0.0
Q2 13:33
Joshisa Trader 40 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)
+13.6
Q2 13:33
Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.7
Q2 13:30
Rocco Becht pass complete to Eli Green for 11 yds to the ISU 36 for a 1ST down
-2.7
Q2 13:06
Rocco Becht pass complete to Eli Green for 6 yds to the ISU 42
-0.2
Q2 12:34
Rocco Becht pass incomplete
-1.0
Q2 12:29
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 12:01
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 48
-0.9
Q2 11:04
Rocco Becht pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 39 yds to the MIA 13 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q2 10:48
Timeout Miami, clock 10:48
-2.5
Q2 10:43
Carson Hansen 13 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
-15.3
Q2 10:43
Jace T. Gilbert kickoff for 63 yds , Jordan Lyle return for 26 yds to the MIA 28
+1.9
Q2 10:40
Damien Martinez run for 8 yds to the MIA 36
+5.1
Q2 10:08
Damien Martinez run for 31 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 9:25
Elijah Arroyo 33 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)
+16.8
Q2 9:25
Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.9
Q2 9:25
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Isaiah Alston
-4.2
Q2 9:24
Becht, Rocco pass incomplete to Noel, Jaylin, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Hill, D'Yoni) 8 yards to the IOWAST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.
0.0
Q2 9:08
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 32
0.0
Q2 8:36
Rocco Becht pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 8:27
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds to the ISU 41 Iowa State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jarrod Hufford) to the ISU 26
0.0
Q2 8:04
Tyler Perkins punt for 34 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for 12 yds to the ISU 48
-1.8
Q2 8:04
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Damien Martinez
+8.3
Q2 7:56
Cam Ward pass complete to Joshisa Trader for 8 yds to the ISU 40
0.0
Q2 7:09
Cam Ward run for 6 yds to the ISU 34 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 6:28
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Jacolby George
+0.2
Q2 6:21
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the ISU 31
0.0
Q2 5:19
Cam Ward pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 7 yds Mark Fletcher Jr. fumbled, forced by Myles Mendeszoon, recovered by ISU Ta'Shawn James Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Elijah Arroyo) to the ISU 39
-0.1
Q2 5:19
Carson Hansen run for 21 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down
-9.2
Q2 4:37
Rocco Becht pass incomplete
-1.7
Q2 4:29
Rocco Becht pass complete to Aiden Flora for 6 yds to the MIA 34
0.0
Q2 3:55
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Carson Hansen
0.0
Q2 3:51
Timeout Iowa State, clock 03:51
+0.4
Q2 3:51
Timeout Miami, clock 03:51
0.0
Q2 3:46
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 1 yd to the MIA 33
0.0
Q2 3:46
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MIA 39
+7.8
Q2 3:11
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q2 2:32
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 6 yds to the ISU 48
-0.2
Q2 2:00
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the ISU 45
+0.6
Q2 1:21
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the ISU 43 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 0:57
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Elijah Arroyo
+0.5
Q2 0:49
Cam Ward pass complete to Shemar Kirk for 15 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:40
Cam Ward pass complete to Joshisa Trader for 13 yds to the ISU 15 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 0:34
Timeout Iowa State, clock 00:34
0.0
Q2 0:34
Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the ISU 12
0.0
Q2 0:28
Timeout Miami, clock 00:28
+0.3
Q2 0:28
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Elijah Arroyo
0.0
Q2 0:23
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Ray Ray Joseph
-0.2
Q2 0:16
Andres Borregales 30 Yd Field Goal
+3.5
Q2 0:16
Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.8
Q2 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 24
-0.8
Q3 15:00
Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.6
Q3 15:00
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jaylin Noel
-2.1
Q3 14:52
Rocco Becht run for 4 yds to the ISU 29
0.0
Q3 14:23
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Gabe Burkle
0.0
Q3 14:10
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 29
0.0
Q3 14:10
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MIA 34
+2.9
Q3 13:46
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MIA 39 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q3 13:04
Emory Williams pass complete to Ray Ray Joseph for 8 yds to the MIA 47
+1.6
Q3 12:25
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the ISU 48 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q3 11:44
Damien Martinez run for 15 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 10:56
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the ISU 29
+0.2
Q3 10:18
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 20 yds to the ISU 9 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:37
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the ISU 6
+1.5
Q3 9:01
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the ISU 1
0.0
Q3 8:09
Mark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)
+8.5
Q3 8:09
Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.1
Q3 8:09
Carson Hansen run for 27 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST down
-0.5
Q3 7:25
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the MIA 48
-0.2
Q3 6:47
Becht, Rocco pass incomplete to Noel, Jaylin, PENALTY MIAMI roughing passer (Barrow Jr., Simeon) 15 yards to the MIAMI33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.
0.0
Q3 6:41
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 22 yds to the MIA 11 for a 1ST down
-0.5
Q3 6:18
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the MIA 11
0.0
Q3 5:31
Rocco Becht pass complete to Stevo Klotz for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 15
0.0
Q3 4:56
Rocco Becht pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 13 yds to the MIA 2
0.0
Q3 4:03
Timeout Miami, clock 04:03
-0.8
Q3 4:00
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the MIA 1 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:51
Rocco Becht run for no gain to the MIA 1
-0.3
Q3 3:07
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 4
0.0
Q3 2:20
Jaylin Noel 4 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
-12.8
Q3 2:20
Jace T. Gilbert kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.1
Q3 2:20
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the MIA 29
+3.1
Q3 1:42
Emory Williams pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 1:37
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Ny Carr
0.0
Q3 1:31
Elija Lofton run for 28 yds to the ISU 43 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q3 0:00
Jordan Lyle run for 8 yds to the ISU 35
+1.4
Q4 15:00
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the ISU 29 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:18
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the ISU 22
+0.7
Q4 13:32
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the ISU 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:01
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 9 yds to the ISU 9
0.0
Q4 12:16
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the ISU 7 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 11:22
Jordan Lyle run for 4 yds to the ISU 3
-0.1
Q4 10:39
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Shemar Kirk
0.0
Q4 10:32
Jordan Lyle run for no gain to the ISU 3
-0.1
Q4 9:40
Andres Borregales 21 Yd Field Goal
+7.3
Q4 9:40
Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.4
Q4 9:40
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ISU 28
-3.0
Q4 9:04
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Isaiah Alston
+0.2
Q4 8:53
Rocco Becht sacked by Wesley Bissainthe for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 27
0.0
Q4 8:11
Tyler Perkins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 37
0.0
Q4 8:11
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Ray Ray Joseph
+3.1
Q4 8:06
Jordan Lyle run for 5 yds to the MIA 42
0.0
Q4 7:27
Emory Williams pass complete to Jordan Lyle for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 40
0.0
Q4 6:34
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 16
-0.2
Q4 6:34
Jaylin Noel run for 4 yds to the ISU 20
-2.4
Q4 5:54
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the ISU 20
+0.2
Q4 5:17
Rocco Becht run for 11 yds to the ISU 31 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q4 4:50
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 4 yds to the ISU 35
-0.4
Q4 4:18
Abu Sama III run for 10 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q4 3:59
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds to the MIA 46
-0.1
Q4 3:37
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the MIA 46
-1.0
Q4 2:56
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 29 yds to the MIA 17 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q4 2:14
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Stevo Klotz
+1.3
Q4 2:09
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 13 yds to the MIA 4 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 2:00
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Isaiah Alston
0.0
Q4 1:55
Becht, Rocco pass incomplete to Burkle, Gabe, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Patterson, Zaquan) 2 yards to the MIAMI2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.
+0.2
Q4 1:50
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the MIA 2
0.0
Q4 1:13
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Gabe Burkle
-0.1
Q4 1:05
Timeout Iowa State, clock 01:05
-0.1
Q4 1:05
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the MIA 1
0.0
Q4 0:59
Timeout Miami, clock 00:59
0.0
Q4 0:56
Rocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
-37.3
Q4 0:56
Jace T. Gilbert kickoff for 65 yds , Jordan Lyle return for 20 yds to the MIA 20
+1.1
Q4 0:51
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Shemar Kirk
+9.0
Q4 0:47
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Ray Ray Joseph
0.0
Q4 0:41
Emory Williams pass complete to Shemar Kirk for 7 yds to the MIA 27
-0.9
Q4 0:32
Emory Williams pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 4 yds to the MIA 31 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q4 0:18
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Ray Ray Joseph
-6.5
Q4 0:14
Timeout Iowa State, clock 00:14
-1.7
Q4 0:14
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Ray Ray Joseph
0.0
Q4 0:09
Emory Williams pass complete to Ray Ray Joseph for 9 yds to the MIA 40
-1.3
Q4 0:04
Timeout Miami, clock 00:04
-3.3
Q4 0:00
Emory Williams pass intercepted Drew Surges return for 4 yds to the ISU 14
-6.2
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:56
Rocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
-37.3
TD · Q1 11:10
Damien Martinez 75 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)
+17.9
TD · Q2 9:25
Elijah Arroyo 33 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)
+16.8
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com