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ISU

Iowa State 42 at Miami 41

MIA
2024 · Pop-Tarts Bowl · Dec 28, 2024 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Emory Williams pass intercepted Drew Surges return for 4 yds to the ISU 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+18.5+9.30−9.3−18.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:25: Elijah Arroyo 33 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick) — MIA win probability +10.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:09: Mark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick) — MIA win probability +9.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:20: Jaylin Noel 4 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick) — ISU win probability +15.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 9:40: Andres Borregales 21 Yd Field Goal — MIA win probability +9.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:56: Rocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick) — ISU win probability +57.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:19ISU 4th & 1 at MIA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:04ISU 4th & 17 at ISU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:46ISU 4th & 4 at MIA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:16MIA 4th & 7 at ISU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−5.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:10ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:00ISU 4th & 1 at MIA 2, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    16.4%−3.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−13.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:31MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 29, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.6%
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:40MIA 4th & 3 at ISU 3, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%−3.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−21.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:11ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:34MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:56ISU 4th & 1 at MIA 1, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−28.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−31.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:32MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.7%−9.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%−14.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:23ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:10MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:34ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:12MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 2:23ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 13:33MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 10:43ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 9:25MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:09MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:20ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:56ISU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−4.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
65.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ISU Cael BrezinaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:3035% → 36%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
65.5%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ahmad Moten Sr.) to the MIA 17Similar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 5
OPP 17
+1
65.5%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the MIA 16Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
65.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+3
65.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 3 yds to the MIA 13Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+4
65.3%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the MIA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
65.0%
Rocco Becht run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 12 Rocco Becht fumbled, recovered by ISU Rocco BechtSimilar
Q1 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
65.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 3 yds to the MIA 9Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
63.7%
Gabe Burkle 9 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
65.3%
Damien Martinez 75 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3335% → 38%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.2%
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the ISU 25Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
65.1%
Rocco Becht run for 10 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
65.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 20 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
64.5%
Jaylin Noel run for 12 yds to the MIA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
64.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Eli Green for 3 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+30
61.7%
Carson Hansen 30 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1763% → 66%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.6%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
62.4%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 3 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
62.1%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
61.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+17
62.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elija Lofton for 17 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
62.1%
Ward, Cam pass incomplete to Lofton, Elija, PENALTY IOWAST pass interference (Freyler, Beau) 15 yards to the IOWAST24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
62.5%
Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 20 yds to the ISU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.8%
Jacolby George 4 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:4936% → 42%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
64.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
64.2%
Aiden Flora run for 12 yds to the ISU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
63.2%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Eli GreenSimilar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
63.4%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 7
50
+49
62.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 49 yds to the MIA 1 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Roughing Passer (Yards) to the MIA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.8%
Carson Hansen 1 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4559% → 65%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.3%
Jordan Lyle run for 4 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
59.2%
Jordan Lyle run for 5 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
59.0%
Cam Ward run for 2 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
58.7%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
58.5%
Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 39Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+24
58.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 24 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
59.5%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Ray Ray JosephSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-3
59.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 40Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+40
64.5%
Joshisa Trader 40 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4737% → 48%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
63.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Eli Green for 11 yds to the ISU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
62.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Eli Green for 6 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
61.5%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
61.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
50
-2
61.0%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 48Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+39
61.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 39 yds to the MIA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
52.2%
Carson Hansen 13 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:1555% → 66%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
55.3%
Damien Martinez run for 8 yds to the MIA 36Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+31
56.2%
Damien Martinez run for 31 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
66.2%
Elijah Arroyo 33 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:2138% → 38%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.8%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
62.0%
Becht, Rocco pass incomplete to Noel, Jaylin, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Hill, D'Yoni) 8 yards to the IOWAST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
61.1%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 32Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
61.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 11
OWN 32
-6
62.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds to the ISU 41 Iowa State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jarrod Hufford) to the ISU 26Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 17
OWN 26
+12
62.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 34 yds , Ray Ray Joseph returns for 12 yds to the ISU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:4566% → 65%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
65.7%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Damien MartinezSimilar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
65.3%
Cam Ward pass complete to Joshisa Trader for 8 yds to the ISU 40Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+6
65.1%
Cam Ward run for 6 yds to the ISU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
66.1%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
66.0%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-8
65.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 7 yds Mark Fletcher Jr. fumbled, forced by Myles Mendeszoon, recovered by ISU Ta'Shawn James Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (Elijah Arroyo) to the ISU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:3342% → 42%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
58.2%
Carson Hansen run for 21 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
56.8%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
56.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Aiden Flora for 6 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
56.5%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Carson HansenSimilar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+1
58.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 1 yd to the MIA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 3:3063% → 67%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
63.1%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MIA 39Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+7
64.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
64.8%
Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 6 yds to the ISU 48Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
65.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the ISU 45Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
64.7%
Jordan Lyle run for 2 yds to the ISU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
65.4%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Elijah ArroyoSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
65.1%
Cam Ward pass complete to Shemar Kirk for 15 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
66.2%
Cam Ward pass complete to Joshisa Trader for 13 yds to the ISU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
66.5%
Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the ISU 12Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
66.2%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Elijah ArroyoSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
64.9%
Cam Ward pass incomplete to Ray Ray JosephSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
67.2%
Andres Borregales 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
67.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5034% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.6%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.9%
Rocco Becht run for 4 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
66.3%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Gabe BurkleSimilar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
67.7%
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 6:0167% → 81%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
67.2%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+5
68.1%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MIA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
68.3%
Emory Williams pass complete to Ray Ray Joseph for 8 yds to the MIA 47Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+5
69.3%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the ISU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
69.5%
Damien Martinez run for 15 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
70.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+20
70.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 20 yds to the ISU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
71.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the ISU 6Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
71.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the ISU 1Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4920% → 39%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
79.7%
Carson Hansen run for 27 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
77.8%
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the MIA 48Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
78.4%
Becht, Rocco pass incomplete to Noel, Jaylin, PENALTY MIAMI roughing passer (Barrow Jr., Simeon) 15 yards to the MIAMI33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+22
76.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 22 yds to the MIA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
76.5%
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the MIA 11Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-4
76.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Stevo Klotz for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 15Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+13
80.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 13 yds to the MIA 2Similar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
79.1%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the MIA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.5%
Rocco Becht run for no gain to the MIA 1Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
76.6%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 4Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
61.3%
Jaylin Noel 4 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 7:4067% → 84%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.6%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
66.8%
Emory Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
65.5%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Ny CarrSimilar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+28
63.6%
Elija Lofton run for 28 yds to the ISU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
71.1%
Jordan Lyle run for 8 yds to the ISU 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+6
72.0%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the ISU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
75.3%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the ISU 22Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+4
75.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the ISU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
75.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 9 yds to the ISU 9Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+2
75.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the ISU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
75.9%
Jordan Lyle run for 4 yds to the ISU 3Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.8%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Shemar KirkSimilar
Q4 10:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
75.3%
Jordan Lyle run for no gain to the ISU 3Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
84.4%
Andres Borregales 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2925% → 22%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.2%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ISU 28Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
74.3%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
77.1%
Rocco Becht sacked by Wesley Bissainthe for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 27Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
78.5%
Tyler Perkins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3786% → 86%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
85.5%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Ray Ray JosephSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
85.1%
Jordan Lyle run for 5 yds to the MIA 42Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-2
86.2%
Emory Williams pass complete to Jordan Lyle for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 40Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
85.7%
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21TD
18 plays · 84 yds · 5:3823% → 79%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
76.8%
Jaylin Noel run for 4 yds to the ISU 20Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
77.9%
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the ISU 20Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+11
80.3%
Rocco Becht run for 11 yds to the ISU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
76.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 4 yds to the ISU 35Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+10
75.9%
Abu Sama III run for 10 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
74.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds to the MIA 46Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
71.4%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the MIA 46Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+29
72.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 29 yds to the MIA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
70.2%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Stevo KlotzSimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+13
71.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 13 yds to the MIA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
66.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 0
OPP 4
+2
62.4%
Becht, Rocco pass incomplete to Burkle, Gabe, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Patterson, Zaquan) 2 yards to the MIAMI2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.9%
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the MIA 2Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
69.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Gabe BurkleSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.2%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the MIA 1Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.6%
Rocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22INT
11 plays · 20 yds · 0:5141% → 17%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
40.6%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Shemar KirkSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
39.7%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Ray Ray JosephSimilar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+7
36.9%
Emory Williams pass complete to Shemar Kirk for 7 yds to the MIA 27Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+4
34.3%
Emory Williams pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 4 yds to the MIA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
33.5%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Ray Ray JosephSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
32.0%
Emory Williams pass incomplete to Ray Ray JosephSimilar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+9
27.9%
Emory Williams pass complete to Ray Ray Joseph for 9 yds to the MIA 40Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-4
17.3%
Emory Williams pass intercepted Drew Surges return for 4 yds to the ISU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:56
Rocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
-57.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.3
TD · Q3 2:20
Jaylin Noel 4 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
-15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com