ARDLINETry the model
IS

Iowa State 19 at Arizona State 45

AS
2024 · Week 15 · Dec 7, 2024 · AT&T Stadium
Win probability · AS
modelAS aheadIS aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGKEY PLAYTDTDTD
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 13
No driver breakdown computed for this play yet.
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Jace T. Gilbert kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:29
Cam Skattebo run for 28 yds to the ISU 47 for a 1ST down
+3.2
Q1 14:20
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ISU 44
+2.1
Q1 13:20
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 22 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 12:50
Kyson Brown run for no gain to the ISU 22
+0.4
Q1 12:40
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Xavier Guillory
0.0
Q1 12:25
Sam Leavitt run for 7 yds to the ISU 15
-0.3
Q1 11:51
Carston Kieffer 32 Yd Field Goal
+4.9
Q1 11:51
Ian Hershey kickoff for 64 yds for a touchback
-1.4
Q1 11:48
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden Higgins
-2.6
Q1 11:40
Abu Sama III run for 10 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 11:25
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 5 yds to the ISU 40
0.0
Q1 11:00
Carson Hansen run for 6 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST down Arizona State Penalty, Personal Foul (Keyshaun Elliott) to the ASU 39 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q1 10:45
Carson Hansen run for 11 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST down
-2.0
Q1 9:15
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 7 yds to the ASU 21
+0.1
Q1 9:00
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ASU 19
-0.2
Q1 8:18
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the ASU 18 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q1 7:54
Rocco Becht run for 5 yds to the ASU 13
0.0
Q1 7:30
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 7 yds to the ASU 6 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:37
Hansen, Carson rush for 3 yards to the ASU3, PENALTY ASU substitution infraction 3 yards to the ASU3, NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 6:30
Carson Hansen 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
-13.2
Q1 6:30
Jace T. Gilbert kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.8
Q1 6:04
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 5 yds to the ASU 30
+4.6
Q1 5:45
Cam Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 34
0.0
Q1 5:00
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 34
0.0
Q1 3:50
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 63 yds to the ISU 3 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 3:39
Timeout Arizona State, clock 03:39
+1.0
Q1 3:30
Cam Skattebo pass incomplete
0.0
Q1 3:15
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ISU 3
0.0
Q1 2:46
Sam Leavitt 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)
+13.0
Q1 2:46
Ian Hershey kickoff for 58 yds for a touchback
-1.5
Q1 2:20
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 19 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST down
-2.8
Q1 2:15
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Gabe Burkle
-1.8
Q1 1:45
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 17 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 1:09
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 14 yds to the ASU 25 for a 1ST down
-1.3
Q1 0:57
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the ASU 21
0.0
Q1 0:19
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 12 yds to the ASU 9 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 14:45
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ASU 8
+0.1
Q2 14:20
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden Higgins
0.0
Q2 14:20
Iowa State Penalty, False Start (Jayden Higgins) to the ASU 13
0.0
Q2 14:05
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for a loss of 5 yards to the ASU 18
+0.7
Q2 13:51
Kyle Konrardy 36 Yd Field Goal
-7.4
Q2 13:51
Jace T. Gilbert kickoff for 64 yds for a touchback
+2.0
Q2 13:45
Cam Skattebo run for 47 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST down
+5.0
Q2 12:00
Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the ISU 26
+2.5
Q2 11:44
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 9 yds to the ISU 17 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 11:00
Sam Leavitt run for 14 yds to the ISU 3 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 10:49
Cam Skattebo 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)
+15.3
Q2 10:49
Ian Hershey kickoff for 60 yds for a touchback
-1.2
Q2 10:16
Carson Hansen run for 9 yds to the ISU 34
-2.6
Q2 10:05
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden Higgins
0.0
Q2 9:55
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 9:30
Jaylon Jackson run for 9 yds to the ISU 48
-0.6
Q2 8:36
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden Higgins
-0.8
Q2 8:25
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 7:24
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ASU 47
+0.6
Q2 6:53
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 17 yds to the ASU 30 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q2 6:30
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the ASU 30
-0.4
Q2 5:25
Jaylin Noel run for 2 yds to the ASU 28
+0.1
Q2 5:16
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Carson Brown
0.0
Q2 5:13
Kyle Konrardy 46 yd FG MISSED
+0.8
Q2 4:37
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Malik McClain for 43 yds to the ISU 29 for a 1ST down
+4.6
Q2 4:23
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Xavier Guillory
+1.2
Q2 4:10
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ISU 29
0.0
Q2 3:45
Sam Leavitt sacked by Domonique Orange for a loss of 8 yards to the ISU 37
-0.2
Q2 2:46
Arizona State Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the ISU 42
-0.3
Q2 2:39
Kanyon Floyd punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 10
0.0
Q2 2:22
Jaylon Jackson run for no gain to the ISU 10
-3.5
Q2 1:59
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 4 yds to the ISU 14
-0.1
Q2 1:52
Rocco Becht pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 1:40
Tyler Perkins punt for 48 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for no gain to the ASU 14 Arizona State Penalty, Illegal Block (Kyan McDonald) to the ASU 28
0.0
Q2 1:00
Cam Skattebo run for 53 yds to the ISU 19 for a 1ST down
+2.8
Q2 0:50
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 5 yds to the ISU 14
+1.2
Q2 0:35
Sam Leavitt run for 12 yds to the ISU 2 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:27
Cam Skattebo 2 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)
+12.6
Q2 0:27
Ian Hershey kickoff for 64 yds for a touchback
-0.2
Q2 0:15
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 8 yds to the ISU 33
+1.4
Q2 0:08
Timeout Arizona State, clock 00:08
0.0
Q2 0:01
Abu Sama III run for 16 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 15:00
Ian Hershey kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.0
Q3 14:56
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jaylin Noel
-0.6
Q3 14:25
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ISU 27
0.0
Q3 13:47
Rocco Becht run for 10 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 13:25
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 6 yds to the ISU 43
0.0
Q3 13:06
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ISU 43 Abu Sama III fumbled, forced by Javan Robinson, recovered by ASU Jeff Clark
0.0
Q3 12:45
Cam Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ISU 37
+2.3
Q3 12:00
Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ISU 35
0.0
Q3 11:20
Sam Leavitt run for a loss of 4 yards to the ISU 39
0.0
Q3 11:05
Sam Leavitt run for 9 yds to the ISU 30 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:33
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Melquan Stovall
0.0
Q3 10:20
Cam Skattebo run for 7 yds to the ISU 23
0.0
Q3 9:38
Cam Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ISU 19 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:30
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Chamon Metayer
0.0
Q3 8:27
Cam Skattebo run for 7 yds to the ISU 12
+0.2
Q3 8:00
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 4 yds to the ISU 8 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:38
Xavier Guillory 8 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Carston Kieffer Kick)
+6.9
Q3 7:38
Ian Hershey kickoff for 65 yds , Jaylon Jackson return for 22 yds to the ISU 22
-0.3
Q3 7:38
Iowa State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ISU 17
+1.4
Q3 7:18
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Keith Abney II return for 8 yds to the ISU 26
0.0
Q3 7:15
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete
-0.9
Q3 6:44
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the ISU 21
0.0
Q3 6:27
Xavier Guillory 21 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Carston Kieffer Kick)
+3.4
Q3 6:27
Ian Hershey kickoff for 62 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q3 6:10
Carson Hansen run for 9 yds to the ISU 34
-0.1
Q3 6:00
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jaylin Noel
0.0
Q3 5:28
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 4:40
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 8 yds to the ISU 45
+0.4
Q3 4:25
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 7 yards to the ISU 38 Abu Sama III fumbled, forced by Clayton Smith, recovered by ASU Justin Wodtly
+0.4
Q3 3:50
Cam Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ISU 34
+0.1
Q3 3:35
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 1 yd to the ISU 33
+0.2
Q3 2:57
Cam Skattebo 33 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Carston Kieffer Kick)
+2.0
Q3 2:57
Ian Hershey kickoff for 64 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q3 2:29
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 14 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST down
-1.8
Q3 1:58
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the ISU 44
+0.1
Q3 1:33
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for a loss of 4 yards to the ISU 40
0.0
Q3 0:44
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 18 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:33
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the ASU 42
-0.2
Q3 0:02
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Beni Ngoyi
0.0
Q3 0:00
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 7 yds to the ASU 35
0.0
Q4 14:54
Becht, Rocco pass sacked for loss of 10 yards to the ASU45 (Simmons, Shamari), PENALTY ASU personal foul (Simmons, Shamari) 15 yards to the ASU20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.
0.0
Q4 14:13
Aiden Flora run for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 22
-0.3
Q4 14:00
Connor Moberly run for 2 yds to the ASU 20
0.0
Q4 13:30
Timeout Iowa State, clock 13:30
+0.2
Q4 13:00
Moberly, Connor pass incomplete to Noel, Jaylin, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Robinson, Javan) 11 yards to the ASU9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.
0.0
Q4 12:48
Jaylon Jackson run for no gain to the ASU 9
0.0
Q4 12:44
Connor Moberly run for 4 yds to the ASU 5
0.0
Q4 12:07
Connor Moberly pass incomplete to Jayden Higgins
0.0
Q4 12:04
Kyle Konrardy 24 Yd Field Goal
-0.4
Q4 12:04
Jace T. Gilbert kickoff for 38 yds fair catch by Jake Smith at the ASU 27
+0.2
Q4 11:20
DeCarlos Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 26
+1.4
Q4 11:06
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the ASU 29
0.0
Q4 9:59
DeCarlos Brooks run for 4 yds to the ASU 33
0.0
Q4 9:51
Kanyon Floyd punt for 35 yds, downed at the ISU 32
0.0
Q4 9:48
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Jayden Higgins
-1.2
Q4 9:09
Jaylon Jackson run for 6 yds to the ISU 38
0.0
Q4 8:45
Rocco Becht run for 5 yds to the ISU 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 8:43
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Carson Brown
0.0
Q4 8:36
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett Eskildsen
0.0
Q4 8:24
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 7 yds to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q4 8:00
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 25 yds to the ASU 25 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 7:27
Jaylin Noel 25 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-0.2
Q4 7:27
Jace T. Gilbert on-side kick recovered by Arizona State at the ASU 45
+0.2
Q4 7:00
Jeff Sims run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line
-0.2
Q4 6:00
Jeff Sims run for 5 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 5:30
DeCarlos Brooks run for 11 yds to the ISU 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 4:30
Jeff Sims run for 12 yds to the ISU 22 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 4:00
DeCarlos Brooks run for a loss of 5 yards to the ISU 27
+0.2
Q4 3:28
Jeff Sims run for 4 yds to the ISU 23
0.0
Q4 3:00
Jeff Sims run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 24
0.0
Q4 2:26
Arizona State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ISU 29
0.0
Q4 2:21
Jeff Sims run for 6 yds to the ISU 23
0.0
Q4 2:00
Connor Moberly run for 4 yds to the ISU 27
+0.3
Q4 1:55
Connor Moberly pass incomplete
+0.2
Q4 1:51
Connor Moberly pass incomplete to Tripp Walsh
0.0
Q4 1:39
Tyler Perkins punt for 57 yds, downed at the ASU 16
0.0
Q4 1:06
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 15
-0.2
Q4 0:45
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 14
0.0
Q4 0:01
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 13
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:49
Cam Skattebo 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)
+15.3
TD · Q1 6:30
Carson Hansen 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
-13.2
TD · Q1 2:46
Sam Leavitt 3 Yd Run (Carston Kieffer Kick)
+13
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com