Ohio State

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3899th
  Defense−0.0396th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense51.0%98th
  Defense36.7%95th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3690th
  Defense+1.1874th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2797th
  Defense−0.0592nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.5299th
  Defense+0.0481st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense55.9%97th
  Defense40.0%97th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.3%98th
  Defense29.7%59th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2374th
  Defense2.7579th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.5%60th
  Defense17.6%50th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.3%88th
  Defense21.4%96th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Ohio State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   AKR
2. W
   WMU
3. W
   MRSH
4. W
   MSU
5. W
   IOWA
6. L
   ORE
7. W
   NEB
8. W
   PSU
9. W
   PUR
10. W
    NU
11. W
    IU
12. L
    MICH
13. W
    TENN
14. W
    ORE
15. W
    TEX
16. W
    ND

Bars above the line: better than expected for Ohio State.

Players, 2024

1. Will HowardQB353 plays · +0.357 pts/play · 9th of 232 QBs
   2.36WAR1.77 to 3.01
2. TreVeyon HendersonRB111 plays · +0.132 pts/play · 100th of 373 RBs
   0.28WAR0.18 to 0.37
3. Quinshon JudkinsRB127 plays · +0.111 pts/play · 106th of 373 RBs
   0.26WAR0.17 to 0.36
4. Jeremiah SmithWR60 plays · +0.219 pts/play · 21st of 452 WRs
   0.25WAR0.10 to 0.40
5. Emeka EgbukaWR69 plays · +0.062 pts/play · 178th of 452 WRs
   0.08WAR−0.05 to 0.21
6. Jayden FieldingPK11 plays · +0.275 pts/play · 88th of 114 kickers
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.08
7. Carnell TateWR42 plays · +0.066 pts/play · 233rd of 452 WRs
   0.05WAR−0.03 to 0.14
8. Gee Scott Jr.TE25 plays · +0.078 pts/play · 92nd of 221 TEs
   0.04WAR−0.02 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Ohio State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  9999993rd of 131Roster talent: 999, 3rd of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  2972973rd of 131Recruiting: 297, 3rd of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  22%22%112th of 130Returning production: 22%, 112th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +31.2+31.21st of 131SP+ rating: +31.2, 1st of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Ohio State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs MICHQ4 6:13 4th & 1 at OSU 21, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−3.3 pts
2. at TEXQ3 8:30 4th & 1 at OSU 21, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
3. vs NEBQ4 14:53 4th & 2 at OSU 28, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. vs NEBQ3 3:29 4th & 2 at OSU 9, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. vs MICHQ3 10:08 4th & 7 at MICH 38, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. at TEXQ2 5:22 4th & 3 at OSU 42, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. vs IOWAQ2 1:43 4th & 8 at IOWA 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. at NDQ4 6:25 4th & 3 at OSU 39, up 16Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

37th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Ohio State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   AKR
2. W

   WMU
3. W

   MRSH
4. W

   MSU
5. W

   IOWA
6. L

   ORE
7. W

   NEB
8. W

   PSU
9. W

   PUR
10. W

    NU
11. W

    IU
12. L

    MICH
13. W

    TENN
14. W

    ORE
15. W

    TEX
16. W

    ND

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Ohio State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.18
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.06
• Timeouts+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.24

Game by game

• AKRW 52-6 vs AKR100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• WMUW 56-0 vs WMU98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• MRSHW 49-14 vs MRSH99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• MSUW 38-7 at MSU94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +10
• IOWAW 35-7 vs IOWA88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +16
• OREL 31-32 at ORE60% → 25%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −14, Timeouts +1
• NEBW 21-17 vs NEB94% → 95%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +12, Timeouts +1
• PSUW 20-13 at PSU53% → 96%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +47, Clock +3
• PURW 45-0 vs PUR98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• NUW 31-7 at NU97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +8
• IUW 38-15 vs IU79% → 100%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +24
• MICHL 10-13 vs MICH91% → 5%Before kickoff +41 · On the field −86: Scoreboard −52, Clock −3
• TENNW 42-17 vs TENN70% → 100%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +32
• OREW 41-21 at ORE56% → 99%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +48, Clock +1
• TEXW 28-14 at TEX62% → 98%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +43, Clock +2
• NDW 34-23 at ND72% → 97%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +36, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Ohio State's side.

Closest call

OSU 52-51 MD (2018) - Ohio State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.