Ohio State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.4399th
  Defense+0.1167th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense53.6%99th
  Defense43.3%40th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3888th
  Defense+1.2651st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1974th
  Defense+0.0282nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.6099th
  Defense+0.1957th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense58.1%99th
  Defense47.3%50th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense40.4%97th
  Defense34.2%21st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3078th
  Defense2.6691st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.2%74th
  Defense19.0%72nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense10.9%98th
  Defense19.2%84th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Ohio State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   MINN
2. L
   ORE
3. W
   TLSA
4. W
   AKR
5. W
   RUTG
6. W
   MD
7. W
   IU
8. W
   PSU
9. W
   NEB
10. W
    PUR
11. W
    MSU
12. L
    MICH
13. W
    UTAH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Ohio State.

Players, 2021

1. C.J. StroudQB383 plays · +0.461 pts/play · 3rd of 219 QBs
   3.31WAR2.48 to 4.17
2. TreVeyon HendersonRB179 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 38th of 387 RBs
   0.63WAR0.46 to 0.81
3. Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR83 plays · +0.256 pts/play · 4th of 474 WRs
   0.40WAR0.30 to 0.50
4. Chris OlaveWR71 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 29th of 474 WRs
   0.26WAR0.17 to 0.34
5. Garrett WilsonWR81 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 33rd of 474 WRs
   0.25WAR0.15 to 0.34
6. Miyan WilliamsRB52 plays · +0.198 pts/play · 221st of 387 RBs
   0.19WAR0.15 to 0.24
7. Master Teague IIIRB27 plays · +0.208 pts/play · 288th of 387 RBs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.13
8. Noah RugglesPK14 plays · +0.307 pts/play · 53rd of 128 kickers
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Ohio State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  9859853rd of 130Roster talent: 985, 3rd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  2962963rd of 130Recruiting: 296, 3rd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  47%47%111th of 128Returning production: 47%, 111th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +29.3+29.32nd of 130SP+ rating: +29.3, 2nd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Ohio State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.12 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs PSUQ4 7:12 4th & 3 at PSU 8, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.6 pts
2. vs OREQ4 7:55 4th & 6 at ORE 15, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−2.0 pts
3. vs PSUQ4 2:41 4th & 1 at PSU 9, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
4. at NEBQ3 2:05 4th & 2 at NEB 18, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. at MICHQ4 4:45 4th & 5 at MICH 10, down 15Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.0 pts
6. vs TLSAQ4 9:30 4th & 3 at OSU 40, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
7. vs PSUQ2 11:54 4th & 3 at PSU 46, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at MICHQ4 5:46 4th & 7 at MICH 24, down 15Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

61st of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Ohio State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   MINN
2. L

   ORE
3. W

   TLSA
4. W

   AKR
5. W

   RUTG
6. W

   MD
7. W

   IU
8. W

   PSU
9. W

   NEB
10. W

    PUR
11. W

    MSU
12. L

    MICH
13. W

    UTAH

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Ohio State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.94
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Timeouts−0.07
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.94

Game by game

• MINNW 45-31 at MINN82% → 98%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +28, Clock +1
• OREL 28-35 vs ORE84% → 9%Before kickoff +34 · On the field −75: Scoreboard −48, Clock −3
• TLSAW 41-20 vs TLSA95% → 99%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +9
• AKRW 59-7 vs AKR100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• RUTGW 52-13 at RUTG84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +22
• MDW 66-17 vs MD91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +11
• IUW 54-7 at IU92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +12
• PSUW 33-24 vs PSU89% → 96%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +17, Timeouts +1
• NEBW 26-17 at NEB84% → 95%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +27, Clock +2
• PURW 59-31 vs PUR90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +14
• MSUW 56-7 vs MSU91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +12
• MICHL 27-42 at MICH67% → 1%Before kickoff +17 · On the field −66: Scoreboard −49, Timeouts −1
• UTAHW 48-45 vs UTAH48% → 90%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts −6

Points of win probability, from Ohio State's side.

Closest call

OSU 52-51 MD (2018) - Ohio State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.