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ORE

Oregon 35 at Ohio State 28

OSU
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · C.J. Stroud sacked by DJ Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the OhSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:25: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 26 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:38: Travis Dye run for 5 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +16.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:54: TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +23.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:10: Anthony Brown pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 14 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +17.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:55: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 15 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +21.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:08OSU 4th & 7 at ORE 31, tied
    Close callWent for it · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:47ORE 4th & 10 at OSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:24OSU 4th & 11 at ORE 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:12OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:29ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:51ORE 4th & 1 at OSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−1.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:32OSU 4th & 2 at ORE 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−1.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:34ORE 4th & 14 at OSU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:43OSU 4th & 2 at ORE 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%−1.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−9.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:02ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:00OSU 4th & 3 at ORE 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−0.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−9.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:55OSU 4th & 6 at ORE 15, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%−2.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−6.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:04ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−4.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:44OSU 4th & 18 at OSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−3.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:43ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:20ORE 4th & 1 at OSU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 14:27ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:42OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:51ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:38ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:25OSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:38ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:54OSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:10ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:55OSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:4784% → 83%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
83.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 11 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
83.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 6 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
83.6%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+20
83.5%
Miyan Williams run for 20 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
83.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 6 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-3
83.5%
Miyan Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
83.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 7
OPP 31
0
83.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:1317% → 18%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
82.9%
CJ Verdell run for 11 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
82.6%
Anthony Brown run for 9 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+7
82.3%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
82.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to CJ VerdellSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
82.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
82.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to CJ Verdell for no gain to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
82.2%
Tom Snee punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3PUNT
14 plays · 61 yds · 5:1682% → 80%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
82.1%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the OhSt 7Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+4
81.9%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+8
81.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 8 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
81.7%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+6
81.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 6 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+5
81.3%
Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
81.4%
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd to the OhSt 33Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
81.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 4 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+30
80.9%
C.J. Stroud run for 15 yds to the OHIOST 48 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Dontae Manning) to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
81.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-6
81.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Luke Wypler) to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+2
81.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
81.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Cade StoverSimilar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
80.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 33 yds, downed at the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 3:3920% → 27%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
80.4%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+8
80.3%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+19
79.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 19 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
79.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 10 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
78.6%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
78.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Devon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+20
79.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to CJ Verdell for 20 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
77.7%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+18
77.2%
Anthony Brown run for 18 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
72.8%
CJ Verdell run for 14 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0275% → 73%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.6%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
74.3%
C.J. Stroud run for 1 yd to the OhSt 37Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
73.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
72.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 62 yds, downed at the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:3627% → 28%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
73.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
73.3%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+16
73.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Cam McCormick for 16 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
72.1%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+2
71.7%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
71.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 5
OWN 24
-2
72.0%
Tom Snee punt for 44 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:3871% → 79%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
71.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 26 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
72.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 43Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+1
71.8%
C.J. Stroud run for 1 yd to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+15
70.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 15 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
79.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 27 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:4525% → 36%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
75.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Troy Franklin for 12 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
73.3%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+30
73.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 30 yds to the OhSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
71.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Troy Franklin for 7 yds to the OhSt 16Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
71.4%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the OhSt 15Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
71.8%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the OhSt 14Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+14
64.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to CJ Verdell for 14 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:1366% → 66%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+21
66.2%
Miyan Williams run for 21 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
67.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 13 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
67.6%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+4
67.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 4 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
65.8%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the Oregn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 1:5340% → 40%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
60.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Devon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
60.3%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+3
58.1%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
58.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
58.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 15 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
56.2%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-10
56.3%
Brown, Anthony pass complete to Pittman, Mycah for 23 yards to the OHIOST13, PENALTY OREGON holding (Ferguson, Terrance) 10 yards to the OHIOST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 20
OPP 46
0
57.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Devon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 20
OPP 46
+6
58.5%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
60.2%
Tom Snee punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:2661% → 65%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
60.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 15 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
61.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 9 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+21
62.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 21 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
64.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 17 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 1:0942% → 56%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
57.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Spencer Webb for 2 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
57.7%
Anthony Brown run for 5 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+77
44.5%
CJ Verdell run for 77 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0745% → 60%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
45.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 9 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
45.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
43.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 22 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
45.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-5
44.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Dawand Jones) to the Oregn 44Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+14
43.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 14 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
44.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+26
60.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 26 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4047% → 71%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
52.7%
Anthony Brown run for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
50.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 9 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+30
48.6%
Travis Dye run for 15 yds to the OHIOST 38 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tommy Eichenberg) to the OhSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
47.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 12 yds to the OhSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
45.4%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
45.1%
Anthony Brown run for 6 yds to the OhSt 5Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
29.0%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15DOWNS
13 plays · 67 yds · 3:4734% → 30%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
33.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 14 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
35.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 5 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+10
35.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 10 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
35.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 8 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
34.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+11
34.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 11 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
34.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 11 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
33.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Dawand Jones) to the Oregn 21Similar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
32.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jeremy RuckertSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 15
OPP 21
0
31.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+13
30.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 13 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 2
OPP 8
0
30.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:3176% → 81%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
24.5%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+1
23.2%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 12Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+15
23.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 15 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
21.4%
Brown, Anthony pass incomplete to Franklin, Troy, PENALTY OHIOST offside (Vincent, Taron) 5 yards to the OREGON32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 5
OWN 32
+3
20.9%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
20.1%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
18.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
18.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jaylon Redd OREGON Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Alex Forsyth) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:08
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
18.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
19.4%
Tom Snee punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:0622% → 46%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+29
22.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 29 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
25.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
24.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 12 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
25.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
25.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+4
23.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+23
21.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 23 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:2468% → 91%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
32.4%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+45
31.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Spencer Webb for 30 yds to the OHIOST 40 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Lathan Ransom) to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
27.1%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
25.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+7
26.6%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
9.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 14 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
8.8%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0914% → 33%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+41
13.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 41 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
14.9%
Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+10
15.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 10 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
13.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 4 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
12.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jeremy RuckertSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
11.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+15
33.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 15 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:4276% → 74%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.5%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
22.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
24.0%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
25.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-6
25.8%
Tom Snee punt for 42 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1429% → 23%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
28.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 22 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
32.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
31.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-10
29.0%
Stroud, C.J. rush for 12 yards to the OREGON37, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Munford, Thayer) 10 yards to the OHIOST41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+2
25.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 2 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 18
OWN 43
0
23.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5081% → 81%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
19.5%
Anthony Brown run for 2 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
16.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
17.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Spencer WebbSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
18.6%
Tom Snee punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4725% → 22%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
25.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 11 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
26.0%
Miyan Williams run for 6 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+8
28.1%
Miyan Williams run for 8 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
28.6%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Bradyn Swinson for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 45Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 18
OWN 45
0
23.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 18
OWN 45
0
21.6%
C.J. Stroud pass intercepted Verone McKinley III return for no gain to the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 2:2488% → 95%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
11.9%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
10.1%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+11
9.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to DJ Johnson for 11 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
5.1%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
4.9%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+3
4.8%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
4.9%
Tom Snee punt for 27 yds, downed at the OhSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:139% → 9%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
8.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 12 yds to the OhSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-12
8.6%
C.J. Stroud sacked by DJ Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the OhSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:54
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+23.8
TD · Q4 7:55
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 15 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+21.2
TD · Q4 10:10
Anthony Brown pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 14 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com