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OSU

Ohio State 26 at Nebraska 17

NEB
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:35 · Jesse Mirco punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior−30.1Home team on offense−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:41: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 3 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:34: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 75 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:53: Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 72 yds for a TD, (Chase Contreraz KICK) — NEB win probability +7.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:05: Noah Ruggles 35 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:22: Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase Contreraz KICK) — NEB win probability +21.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 8 of 11OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:28OSU 4th & 1 at NEB 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:17NEB 4th & 4 at OSU 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.4%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:25NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:35OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:17NEB 4th & 17 at NEB 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:25OSU 4th & 7 at NEB 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:05NEB 4th & 12 at NEB 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:52NEB 4th & 6 at OSU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:37OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:32NEB 4th & 14 at NEB 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−3.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:26NEB 4th & 22 at NEB 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−3.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:42OSU 4th & 5 at NEB 29, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−5.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:59NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:23OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:26NEB 4th & 12 at NEB 2, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:05OSU 4th & 2 at NEB 18, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%−1.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−8.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:47NEB 4th & 4 at OSU 13, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−12.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:10NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:29OSU 4th & 5 at NEB 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:41OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:34OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:53NEB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:22NEB Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:1784% → 82%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
16.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 11 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
16.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
16.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for no gain to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
16.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 6 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
16.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 3 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
17.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 5 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
17.2%
C.J. Stroud run for 1 yd to the Neb 43Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
17.6%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jeremy RuckertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2MISSED FG
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:0118% → 19%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
18.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 24 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
18.2%
Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
18.6%
Rahmir Johnson run for 5 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-2
18.9%
Rahmir Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 27Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
19.1%
Chase Contreraz 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3INT
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:2381% → 81%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
18.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
18.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+16
19.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 16 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
18.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
19.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 7
50
+9
19.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 9 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
19.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 19 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
19.3%
C.J. Stroud pass intercepted JoJo Domann return for no gain to the Neb 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1120% → 21%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
20.1%
Rahmir Johnson run for 7 yds to the Neb 16Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+5
20.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 5 yds to the Neb 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
20.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 4 yds to the Neb 25 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Neb 15Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 16
OWN 15
+5
20.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 5 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
21.1%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+2
20.8%
Adrian Martinez run for 2 yds to the Neb 22Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 9
OWN 22
-3
20.8%
William Przystup punt for 40 yds , Tyreke Smith returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3979% → 78%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
21.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
21.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
21.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
22.0%
Jesse Mirco punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Oliver Martin at the Neb 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:5622% → 23%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
22.1%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Jack Sawyer for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 21Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
22.3%
Rahmir Johnson run for 1 yd to the Neb 22Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-4
22.5%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Ronnie Hickman for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 18Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+10
22.6%
William Przystup punt for 58 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 10 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:2977% → 76%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
22.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
22.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Mitch Rossi for no gain to the OhSt 37Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+11
23.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 11 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
22.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 13 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
22.7%
Stroud, C.J. pass incomplete to Olave, Chris, PENALTY NEBRASKA pass interference 15 yards to the NEBRASKA24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
22.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
22.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+6
23.1%
C.J. Stroud run for 6 yds to the Neb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
23.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
23.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
24.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for no gain to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
23.8%
Noah Ruggles 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1325% → 25%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
24.8%
Adrian Martinez run for 13 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
25.6%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 36Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
25.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
24.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
24.7%
William Przystup punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:0977% → 82%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
23.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 12 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
23.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+17
23.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 17 yds to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
23.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the Neb 10Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
23.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the Neb 6Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
23.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the Neb 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
17.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 3 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:3619% → 24%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+26
19.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 26 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
20.7%
Rahmir Johnson run for 6 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+14
20.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 14 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
21.7%
Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
21.8%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+1
21.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
23.5%
Chase Contreraz 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
14.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 75 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1815% → 23%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.3%
Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
22.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 72 yds for a TD, (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:1079% → 79%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
20.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
20.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 32Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
20.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
21.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 51 yds , Oliver Martin returns for 2 yds to the Neb 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:5921% → 22%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
21.3%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Tyreke Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the Neb 11Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+3
21.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 3 yds to the Neb 14Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+2
21.4%
Rahmir Johnson run for 2 yds to the Neb 16Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
21.7%
William Przystup punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:2480% → 80%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
19.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jeremy RuckertSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
20.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 8 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
19.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 5 yds to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
18.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
18.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+6
19.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 6 yds to the Neb 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:2722% → 21%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 1 yd to the Neb 26Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
22.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 10 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
23.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 2 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-7
23.3%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Zach Harrison for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 31 Adrian Martinez fumbled, recovered by Neb Adrian Martinez , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 15
OWN 31
-7
21.4%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Javontae Jean-Baptiste for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 24Similar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 22
OWN 24
+21
20.9%
William Przystup punt for 49 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 21 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3680% → 81%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
19.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 18 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
19.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 36Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 12
OPP 36
-2
19.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 38Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 14
OPP 38
+5
20.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Neb 33Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 9
OPP 33
-10
19.8%
Stroud, C.J. pass complete to Henderson, TreVeyon for 10 yards to the NEBRASKA23, PENALTY OHIOST holding 10 yards to the NEBRASKA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 19
OPP 43
+14
21.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 14 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+46
19.2%
Noah Ruggles 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:2519% → 19%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 7 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
19.4%
Rahmir Johnson run for 9 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
19.8%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
19.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 6 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
19.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+26
18.9%
William Przystup punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the NEBRASKA 12 NEBRASKA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the OhSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:2481% → 82%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
19.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 2 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+17
18.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 17 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
17.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 41Similar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
17.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 15
OWN 41
-6
17.6%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the OhSt 45 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 21
OWN 35
+12
18.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 12 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
17.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
18.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 49 yds, downed at the Neb 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5118% → 17%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
18.3%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 4
-2
18.0%
Rahmir Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 2Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 12
OWN 2
0
17.2%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 12
OWN 2
+4
16.7%
William Przystup punt for 45 yds , Chris Olave returns for 4 yds to the OhSt 6 OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the OhSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:0984% → 89%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
15.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 14 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
15.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 13 yds to the Neb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
14.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
14.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 6 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
15.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+35
11.0%
Noah Ruggles 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2315% → 37%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.7%
Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
14.7%
Rahmir Johnson run for 6 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
14.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
14.7%
Martinez, Adrian pass incomplete, PENALTY OHIOST holding 10 yards to the NEBRASKA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA.Similar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+53
15.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 53 yds to the OhSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.5%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase Contreraz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:3277% → 78%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 20Similar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
24.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+23
24.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 23 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
21.6%
C.J. Stroud pass intercepted Myles Farmer return for 14 yds to the NEBRASKA 43 OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Neb 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24MISSED FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:3331% → 32%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
30.5%
Rahmir Johnson run for 12 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
33.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 1
50
+2
34.8%
Adrian Martinez run for 2 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
35.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 17 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
38.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
38.4%
Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+5
36.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
36.3%
Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 16Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
36.6%
Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 13Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
34.2%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
31.7%
Chase Contreraz 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25MISSED FG
10 plays · 0 yds · 3:2278% → 84%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
21.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
21.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 5 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
21.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
20.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
21.3%
Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
19.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 6 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
15.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 19 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-9
14.4%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Caleb Tannor for a loss of 9 yards to the Neb 44 OHIO ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (C.J. Stroud) to the Neb 44Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 19
OPP 44
0
15.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 19
OPP 44
+8
15.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 8 yds to the Neb 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3527% → 24%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
27.1%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 31Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
25.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
26.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
24.1%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
23.6%
William Przystup punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the OhSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 27FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:1682% → 95%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
17.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 4 yds to the OhSt 17Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+11
15.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 11 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
13.6%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the OhSt 33Similar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+22
13.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 22 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
10.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 9 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
9.1%
Master Teague III run for 2 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-11
7.2%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Garrett Nelson for a loss of 11 yards to the Neb 45 C.J. Stroud fumbled, recovered by OhSt Luke Wypler , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 21
OPP 45
+5
5.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 16
OPP 40
+11
5.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 11 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+46
4.8%
Noah Ruggles 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 28INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:214% → 4%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
3.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 7 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
3.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+9
3.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 9 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
3.7%
Adrian Martinez pass intercepted Steele Chambers return for no gain to the OhSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:2595% → 95%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 44Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
4.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the OhSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:22
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase Contreraz KICK)
+21.3
TD · Q2 2:53
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 72 yds for a TD, (Chase Contreraz KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q2 3:34
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 75 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com