Ohio State

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2893rd
  Defense−0.1199th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense51.7%99th
  Defense34.4%96th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1611th
  Defense+1.0798th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0747th
  Defense−0.1799th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4899th
  Defense−0.0396th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense56.0%99th
  Defense41.0%93rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.5%96th
  Defense22.8%97th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9956th
  Defense2.5093rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.1%47th
  Defense22.9%90th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense11.2%96th
  Defense16.3%59th

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Ohio State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   TEX
2. W
   GRAM
3. W
   OHIO
4. W
   WASH
5. W
   MINN
6. W
   ILL
7. W
   WIS
8. W
   PSU
9. W
   PUR
10. W
    UCLA
11. W
    RUTG
12. W
    MICH
13. L
    IU
14. L
    MIA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Ohio State.

Players, 2025

1. Julian SayinQB278 plays · +0.366 pts/play · 19th of 231 QBs
   1.91WAR1.37 to 2.39
2. Jeremiah SmithWR74 plays · +0.288 pts/play · 4th of 451 WRs
   0.40WAR0.23 to 0.57
3. Bo JacksonRB129 plays · +0.099 pts/play · 82nd of 365 RBs
   0.24WAR0.17 to 0.31
4. Carnell TateWR47 plays · +0.270 pts/play · 44th of 451 WRs
   0.24WAR0.15 to 0.33
5. CJ Donaldson JrRB84 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 154th of 365 RBs
   0.16WAR0.12 to 0.21
6. Brandon InnissWR30 plays · +0.140 pts/play · 235th of 451 WRs
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.12
7. Max KlareTE32 plays · +0.104 pts/play · 68th of 213 TEs
   0.06WAR−0.01 to 0.12
8. Jayden FieldingPK14 plays · +0.173 pts/play · 94th of 112 kickers
   0.05WAR0.01 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Ohio State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  9749743rd of 134Roster talent: 974, 3rd of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  2942944th of 134Recruiting: 294, 4th of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  31%31%71st of 132Returning production: 31%, 71st of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +30.1+30.12nd of 134SP+ rating: +30.1, 2nd of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Ohio State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.06 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs MIAQ2 0:01 4th & 2 at MIA 31, down 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
2. at MICHQ3 10:07 4th & 2 at MICH 45, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
3. vs OHIOQ3 11:19 4th & 3 at OHIO 4, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
4. at MICHQ4 8:10 4th & 4 at MICH 5, up 15Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
5. vs OHIOQ2 9:58 4th & 2 at OHIO 2, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
6. vs TEXQ3 3:58 4th & 3 at OSU 8, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. vs PSUQ4 12:23 4th & 4 at OSU 47, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
8. at ILLQ4 2:42 4th & 6 at ILL 41, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

66th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Ohio State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   TEX
2. W

   GRAM
3. W

   OHIO
4. W

   WASH
5. W

   MINN
6. W

   ILL
7. W

   WIS
8. W

   PSU
9. W

   PUR
10. W

    UCLA
11. W

    RUTG
12. W

    MICH
13. L

    IU
14. L

    MIA

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Ohio State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.95
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts−0.02
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.63

Game by game

• TEXW 14-7 vs TEX54% → 98%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +40, Possession & field position −1
• GRAMW 70-0 vs GRAM100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• OHIOW 37-9 vs OHIO96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +6
• WASHW 24-6 at WASH73% → 99%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +35, Clock +2
• MINNW 42-3 vs MINN94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +9
• ILLW 34-16 at ILL85% → 99%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +24, Clock +1
• WISW 34-0 at WIS94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +10
• PSUW 38-14 vs PSU86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +18
• PURW 34-10 at PUR97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +7
• UCLAW 48-10 vs UCLA98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• RUTGW 42-9 vs RUTG96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +6
• MICHW 27-9 at MICH73% → 99%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +36, Clock +2
• IUL 10-13 vs IU66% → 11%Before kickoff +16 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −44, Clock −3
• MIAL 14-24 vs MIA73% → 4%Before kickoff +23 · On the field −69: Scoreboard −57, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Ohio State's side.

Closest call

OSU 52-51 MD (2018) - Ohio State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.