2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMINN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:15 · Joe McGuire punt for 42 yds , Koi Perich returns for no gain to the MINN 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 8:05: Brady Denaburg 27 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +2.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:00: CJ Donaldson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:01: Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:04: Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 44 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 5:45: Jayden Fielding kickoff for 63 yds — OSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MINN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 8:05MINN 4th & 9 at OSU 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call9.0%89% to makePunt8.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:38OSU 4th & 6 at MINN 35, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snapGo for it89.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call89.6%−0.145% to makePunt89.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:41MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 43, up 3Close callPunted · 10.8% before the snapGo for it10.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:57MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 27, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it10.7%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.9%average punt
- Q2 8:12MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 44, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 6:35MINN 4th & 16 at MINN 19, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.914% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q2 2:32OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 46, up 18Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snapGo for it93.4%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:00MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 27, down 18Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.0%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:15OSU 4th & 24 at OSU 40, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.2%−1.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q3 9:15OSU 4th & 24 at OSU 40, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.2%−1.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q3 7:31MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 8, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.627% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q3 4:09MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 24, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 9:26MINN 4th & 10 at OSU 23, down 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%70% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:15MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 40, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 0:00OSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:01OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:04OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.2%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:49OSU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMINNDrive 1FG15 plays · 66 yds · 6:556% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Frank Bierman for 5 yds to the MINN 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
93.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 5 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
93.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 4 yds to the MINN 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
93.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Darius Taylor for 6 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+25
93.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 25 yds to the OSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
93.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 9 yds to the OSU 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+10
93.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 10 yds to the OSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
93.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 1 yd to the OSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2MISSED FG10 plays · 40 yds · 3:2792% → 91%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.8%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 8 yds to the OSU 33Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+13
92.0%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 13 yds to the MINN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+3
92.0%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 3 yds to the MINN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5710% → 10%
Q1 4:28
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+8
90.7%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 8 yds to the MINN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD6 plays · 91 yds · 3:4190% → 91%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
90.0%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 7 yds to the OSU 16Similar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+48
90.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 48 yds to the MINN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+31
90.8%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 31 yds to the MINN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:039% → 9%
Q2 13:57
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
91.1%
Tom Weston punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD8 plays · 80 yds · 2:5690% → 93%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+49
90.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 49 yds to the MINN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+11
90.9%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 11 yds to the MINN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 2:498% → 8%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
92.4%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Pierce Walsh for 10 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD1 play · 44 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
96.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 44 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:296% → 6%
OSUDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 4:0396% → 96%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
96.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 4 yds to the OSU 33Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
96.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 5 yds to the OSU 38Similar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 3
OPP 49
-5
96.2%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Scott Jr.,Aaron) 5 yards from MINN49 to OSU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
96.1%
Joe McGuire punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 2:326% → 4%
OSUDrive 12PUNT12 plays · 15 yds · 5:4595% → 96%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
94.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 16 yds to the OSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
94.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 9 yds to the MINN 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-5
94.6%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Kacmarek,Will) 5 yards from MINN49 to OSU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
94.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 8 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 48
-10
94.4%
Shotgun Sayin,Julian rush right for 7 yards gain to the MINN41 (Karmo,Emmanuel), out of bounds PENALTY OSU Holding (Hinzman,Carson) 10 yards from MINN48 to OSU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 42
+2
94.4%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 2 yds to the OSU 40Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 24
OWN 40
+8
96.2%
Joe McGuire punt for 42 yds , Koi Perich returns for 8 yds to the MINN 26Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 24
OWN 40
0
96.2%
Joe McGuire punt for 42 yds , Koi Perich returns for no gain to the MINN 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:444% → 4%
OSUDrive 14TD2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
MINNDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:361% → 1%
OSUDrive 16TD9 plays · 72 yds · 4:14100% → 100%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 4 yds to the OSU 32Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+5
99.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 5 yds to the OSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
99.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 29 yds to the MINN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.8%
Jeremiah Smith 9 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17MISSED FG11 plays · 52 yds · 5:290% → 0%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Ohio State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sonny Styles) to the MINN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
99.8%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 7 yds to the OSU 29Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+1
99.8%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Drew Biber for 1 yd to the OSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD8 plays · 77 yds · 5:37100% → 100%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.9%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Quincy Porter for 15 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 3:340% → 0%
Q4 0:15
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Tom Weston punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Phillip Bell at the OSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:04
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 44 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+4.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:45
Jayden Fielding kickoff for 63 yds
+2.8
FG · Q1 8:05
Brady Denaburg 27 yd FG GOOD
-2