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MIA

Miami 24 at Ohio State 14

OSU
2025 · College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic · Dec 31, 2025 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:56 · (06:04) #42 J.McGuire punt 39 yards to the MIA30 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at MIA30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior+2.3Home team on offense−7.5Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor−5.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:49: Keionte Scott 72 Yd Interception Return (Carter Davis Kick) — MIA win probability +8.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:10: (08:11) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:10 #38 J.Fielding kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #43 J.Ferlmann) — OSU win probability +15.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:28: (13:34) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #4 J.Smith caught at MIA05, for 14 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:28, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MIA Holding declined #38 J.Fielding kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #43 J.Ferlmann) — OSU win probability +22.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:46: (01:48) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at OSU22, for 13 yards to the OSU07 (#26 P.Pierce), 1ST DOWN — MIA win probability +18.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:41: (01:45) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU05 (#98 K.McDonald; #53 W.Smith Jr.) — MIA win probability +18.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 14:07MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:49OSU 4th & 17 at OSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:35OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:54OSU 4th & 11 at OSU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:55MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 31, up 14
    Close callPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:02OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:14MIA 4th & 2 at OSU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    57.1%−2.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:36MIA 4th & 20 at OSU 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−1.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    61.6%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:01OSU 4th & 2 at MIA 31, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%−1.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:01MIA 4th & 2 at OSU 32, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%−2.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:28OSU 4th & 2 at MIA 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−1.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−10.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:16MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:56OSU 4th & 27 at OSU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−7.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:31MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:49MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:10OSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:28OSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:55MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4627% → 27%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short middle to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. thrown to MIA30Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.8%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the MIA28 (#2 C.Downs; #96 E.Houston)Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
72.7%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short middle to #0 K.Marion thrown to MIA44Similar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
72.7%
(14:15) #94 D.Joyce punt 51 yards to the OSU21 #1 B.Inniss return 3 yards to the OSU24 (#22 C.Pruitt; #23 D.Day)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:1373% → 72%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
72.6%
(14:07) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush left for 3 yards gain to the OSU27 (#1 M.Toure; #29 R.Frederique, Jr.)Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
72.6%
(13:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short right to #17 C.Tate thrown to OSU32Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-10
72.5%
(13:37) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin sacked for loss of 10 yards to the OSU17 (#3 A.Mesidor)Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
72.2%
(12:56) #42 J.McGuire punt 44 yards to the MIA39 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at MIA39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3FUMBLE
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:4528% → 29%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
72.3%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the MIA43 (#1 D.Igbinosun)Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+16
72.1%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. caught at MIA44, for 16 yards to the OSU41 (#2 C.Downs; #7 J.Mathews Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
71.9%
(11:46) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the OSU40 (#98 K.McDonald; #8 A.Reese)Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
71.6%
(11:10) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short middle to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. thrown to OSU37Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+13
71.7%
(11:04) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #7 C.Daniels caught at OSU30, for 13 yards to the OSU27 (#2 C.Downs), 1ST DOWN. #3 L.Styles Jr. injured on the playSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
71.3%
(10:23) Shotgun #10 M.Toney rush right for 4 yards gain to the OSU23 (#8 A.Reese)Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
71.1%
(09:47) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU19 (#92 C.Curry)Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
0
71.0%
(09:00) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the OSU19 fumbled by #4 M.Fletcher Jr. at OSU19 forced by #26 P.Pierce recovered by OSU #26 P.Pierce at OSU19, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0772% → 71%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
71.5%
(08:50) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #4 J.Smith caught at OSU25, for 10 yards to the OSU29 (#31 W.Bissainthe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
71.5%
(08:10) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush left for 2 yards loss to the OSU27 (#4 R.Bain Jr.; #99 A.Moten)Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+8
71.2%
(07:29) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush right for 8 yards gain to the OSU35 (#7 Z.Poyser; #8 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
71.0%
(06:48) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete deep left to #17 C.Tate thrown to MIA45Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
70.7%
(06:42) #42 J.McGuire punt 48 yards to the MIA17 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at MIA17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 7:5429% → 39%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
70.9%
(06:35) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIA25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+6
70.6%
(05:55) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIA31 (#7 J.Mathews Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
70.5%
(05:11) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 13 yards gain to the MIA44 (#92 C.Curry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
69.5%
(04:32) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at MIA44, for 5 yards to the MIA49 fumbled by #10 M.Toney at OSU50 forced by #2 C.Downs recovered by MIA #10 M.Toney at MIA49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
69.4%
(03:45) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the OSU48 (#1 D.Igbinosun; #98 K.McDonald)Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+9
69.1%
(03:01) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at OSU43, for 9 yards to the OSU39 (#92 C.Curry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
68.4%
(02:25) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at OSU42, for 4 yards to the OSU35 (#2 C.Downs)Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+7
67.8%
(01:43) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #1 J.Trader caught at OSU31, for 7 yards to the OSU28 (#6 D.Sanchez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
67.5%
(01:05) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OSU21 (#1 D.Igbinosun)Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+3
67.3%
(00:26) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the OSU18 (#18 J.McClain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
67.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush right for 5 yards gain to the OSU13 (#18 J.McClain)Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
66.7%
(14:17) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #7 C.Daniels caught at OSU12, for 4 yards to the OSU09 (#1 D.Igbinosun), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
61.3%
(13:35) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #4 M.Fletcher Jr. caught at OSU08, for 9 yards to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:31, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6INT TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 1:2763% → 56%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
63.0%
(13:31) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete deep middle to #4 J.Smith caught at MIA25, for 59 yards to the MIA16 (#24 E.O'Connor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-6
65.2%
(12:38) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MIA22 (#4 R.Bain Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 16
OPP 22
-72
56.3%
Keionte Scott 72 Yd Interception Return (Carter Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3854% → 51%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
54.0%
(11:49) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #4 J.Smith caught at OSU36, for 13 yards to the OSU38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
54.6%
(11:11) Shotgun #12 C.Donaldson Jr rush left for 12 yards gain to the OSU50 (#6 X.Lucas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
50
0
54.5%
(10:32) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete deep left to #4 J.Smith thrown to MIA30Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
50
-13
54.3%
(10:27) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin sacked for loss of 13 yards to the OSU37 (#3 A.Mesidor)Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 23
OWN 37
+12
51.2%
(09:43) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #12 C.Donaldson Jr caught at OSU34, for 12 yards to the OSU49 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
51.3%
(09:00) #42 J.McGuire punt 40 yards to the MIA11 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at MIA11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:5450% → 53%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
49.7%
(08:53) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the MIA12 (#98 K.McDonald)Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+10
49.3%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at MIA18, for 10 yards to the MIA22 (#1 D.Igbinosun; #18 J.McClain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
48.8%
(07:54) #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA25 (#98 K.McDonald; #2 C.Downs)Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+4
48.0%
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at MIA28, for 4 yards to the MIA29 (#6 D.Sanchez)Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+2
47.8%
(06:51) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA31 (#97 K.Jackson Jr.; #1 D.Igbinosun)Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
47.3%
(06:05) #94 D.Joyce punt 60 yards to the OSU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4346% → 45%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
46.0%
(05:50) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush left for 1 yard gain to the OSU10 (#1 M.Toure)Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
45.7%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short left to #89 W.Kacmarek thrown to OSU12 broken up by #1 M.Toure QB hurried by #18 A.BlountSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
45.2%
(05:17) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short left to #12 C.Donaldson Jr thrown to OSU04 QB hurried by #41 C.SmithSimilar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 9
OWN 10
+2
44.9%
(05:13) #42 J.McGuire punt 50 yards to the MIA40 #10 M.Toney return 2 yards to the MIA42 (#12 B.West)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
13 plays · 18 yds · 3:1456% → 64%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
43.9%
(05:02) #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #0 K.Marion caught at OSU44, for 14 yards to the OSU44 (#7 J.Mathews Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
43.0%
(04:22) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the OSU40 (#1 D.Igbinosun)Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
42.0%
(03:44) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at OSU42, for 3 yards to the OSU37 (#15 Z.Grady; #1 D.Igbinosun)Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+1
41.4%
(03:06) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OSU36 (#95 T.Malone)Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+6
41.5%
(02:23) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #10 M.Toney caught at OSU32, for 6 yards to the OSU30 (#7 J.Mathews Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
34.2%
(02:00) Shotgun #11 C.Beck sacked for loss of 4 yards to the OSU34 (#96 E.Houston)Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 14
OPP 34
-6
34.2%
(01:54) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short middle to #10 M.Toney caught at OSU38, for 6 yards loss to the OSU40 (#0 S.Styles)Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 20
OPP 40
0
34.6%
(01:47) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep right to #0 K.Marion thrown to OSU00Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 20
OPP 40
0
35.8%
(01:42) #94 D.Joyce punt 38 yards to the OSU02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11MISSED FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 1:2941% → 38%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
40.5%
(01:35) Shotgun #12 C.Donaldson Jr rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU06 (#1 M.Toure; #0 K.Scott)Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+6
40.8%
(01:29) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #12 C.Donaldson Jr caught at OSU04, for 6 yards to the OSU12 (#1 M.Toure), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
40.9%
(01:21) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #17 C.Tate caught at OSU25, for 15 yards to the OSU27 (#29 R.Frederique, Jr.; #7 Z.Poyser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
41.6%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #12 C.Donaldson Jr caught at OSU25, for 8 yards to the OSU35 (#8 J.Thomas), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+11
42.6%
(01:05) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #1 B.Inniss caught at OSU40, for 11 yards to the OSU46 (#3 A.Mesidor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
43.9%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short left to #1 B.Inniss thrown to OSU50 broken up by #24 E.O'ConnorSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
43.6%
(00:56) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #12 C.Donaldson Jr caught at MIA50, for 7 yards to the MIA47 (#31 W.Bissainthe; #7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+8
43.3%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #1 B.Inniss caught at MIA39, for 8 yards to the MIA39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
39.5%
(00:21) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #17 C.Tate caught at MIA36, for 8 yards to the MIA31 (#24 E.O'Connor)Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
40.4%
(00:15) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short left thrown to MIA20Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
38.4%
(00:09) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short left to #1 B.Inniss thrown to MIA25Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+49
37.8%
(00:05) #38 J.Fielding field goal attempt from 49 yards NO GOOD (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #43 J.Ferlmann), clock 00:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
36.5%
Kneel down by #11 C.Beck at MIA30 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 6:3839% → 50%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
38.7%
(14:52) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush right for 7 yards gain to the OSU25 (#8 J.Thomas)Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+6
39.1%
(14:20) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OSU31 (#1 M.Toure), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
37.9%
(13:37) #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #1 B.Inniss caught at OSU34, for 6 yards to the OSU37 (#29 R.Frederique, Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+18
37.1%
(13:00) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush left for 18 yards gain to the MIA45 (#8 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
38.0%
(12:20) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MIA49 (#12 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+23
36.3%
(11:45) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete deep right to #4 J.Smith caught at MIA28, for 23 yards to the MIA26 (#7 Z.Poyser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
37.5%
(10:58) #12 C.Donaldson Jr rush left for 4 yards gain to the MIA22 (#18 A.Blount)Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+14
36.1%
(10:13) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #17 C.Tate caught at MIA26, for 14 yards to the MIA08 (#3 A.Mesidor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
35.6%
(09:32) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #89 W.Kacmarek caught at MIA04, for 4 yards to the MIA04 (#8 J.Thomas)Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
34.8%
(08:50) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA01 (#4 R.Bain Jr.; #31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.2%
(08:11) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:10 #38 J.Fielding kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #43 J.Ferlmann)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 5:0057% → 68%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.6%
(08:05) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA30 (#8 A.Reese; #96 E.Houston)Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
41.0%
(07:25) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short left thrown to MIA30 broken up by #98 K.McDonaldSimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
41.7%
(07:21) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at MIA42, for 12 yards to the MIA42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
39.1%
(06:44) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIA48 (#96 E.Houston; #98 K.McDonald)Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+12
38.1%
(06:04) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 12 yards gain to the OSU40 (#2 C.Downs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
37.0%
(05:20) Shotgun #22 G.Pringle Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU38 (#92 C.Curry)Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-1
35.9%
(04:37) Shotgun #11 C.Beck sacked for loss of 1 yard to the OSU39 (#0 S.Styles, #96 E.Houston)Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+7
34.7%
(03:52) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at OSU34, for 7 yards to the OSU32 fumbled by #10 M.Toney at OSU33 forced by #2 C.Downs recovered by MIA #10 M.Toney at OSU34 (#8 A.Reese; #28 L.Roker)Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+49
32.1%
(03:07) #38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker), clock 03:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2832% → 54%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.5%
(03:01) Shotgun #12 C.Donaldson Jr rush right for 4 yards gain to the OSU29 (#1 M.Toure; #8 J.Thomas). #99 A.Moten injured on the playSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
31.7%
(02:34) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #89 W.Kacmarek caught at OSU34, for 12 yards to the OSU41 (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
32.6%
(01:55) Shotgun #12 C.Donaldson Jr rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU43 (#1 M.Toure; #5 J.Scott)Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+9
31.8%
(01:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #1 B.Inniss caught at OSU49, for 9 yards to the MIA48 (#24 E.O'Connor; #10 R.Aguirre, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
33.1%
(00:53) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush left for 4 yards gain to the MIA44 (#10 R.Aguirre, Jr.)Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+22
32.8%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete deep left to #4 J.Smith caught at MIA22, for 22 yards to the MIA22 (#29 R.Frederique, Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. #29 R.Frederique, Jr. injured on the playSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
34.5%
(00:00) No Huddle #4 J.Smith rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIA21 (#0 K.Scott)Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+6
34.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush left for 6 yards gain to the MIA15 (#7 Z.Poyser)Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+1
31.3%
(14:14) Shotgun #12 C.Donaldson Jr rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA14 (#0 K.Scott; #8 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+14
53.5%
(13:34) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #4 J.Smith caught at MIA05, for 14 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:28, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MIA Holding declined #38 J.Fielding kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #43 J.Ferlmann)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:0353% → 59%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.5%
(13:28) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete deep right to #7 C.Daniels thrown to OSU30 broken up by #6 D.Sanchez QB hurried by #92 C.CurrySimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
47.6%
(13:20) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MIA24 (#98 K.McDonald)Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+11
46.8%
(12:36) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush left for 11 yards gain to the MIA35 (#28 L.Roker; #1 D.Igbinosun), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
43.0%
(11:52) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA36 (#1 D.Igbinosun)Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
42.2%
(11:10) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #0 K.Marion caught at MIA38, for 3 yards to the MIA39, out of bounds at MIA39Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
38.4%
(10:28) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass incomplete short left to #9 E.Lofton thrown to MIA47 QB hurried by #92 C.Curry and #8 A.ReeseSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
41.5%
(10:22) #94 D.Joyce punt 36 yards to the OSU25, out of bounds at OSU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 6 yds · 4:1245% → 37%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
45.0%
(10:16) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #89 W.Kacmarek caught at OSU26, for 12 yards to the OSU37 (#0 K.Scott), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
46.4%
(09:34) Shotgun #12 C.Donaldson Jr rush left for 4 yards gain to the OSU41 (#3 A.Mesidor)Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-9
48.9%
(08:56) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin sacked for loss of 9 yards to the OSU32 (#31 W.Bissainthe)Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+16
41.7%
(08:09) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #4 J.Smith caught at OSU45, for 16 yards to the OSU48 (#31 W.Bissainthe; #6 X.Lucas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
48.8%
(07:32) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete deep right to #17 C.Tate thrown to MIA21Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
48.2%
(07:25) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #25 B.Jackson caught at OSU48, for 6 yards to the MIA46 (#31 W.Bissainthe) PENALTY OSU Holding (#70 P.Daniels) 10 yards from OSU48 to OSU38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 20
OWN 38
0
42.2%
(06:51) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short left to #17 C.Tate thrown to OSU46Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 20
OWN 38
-2
39.9%
(06:47) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #12 C.Donaldson Jr caught at OSU37, for 2 yards loss to the OSU36 (#12 M.Lightfoot)Similar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 22
OWN 36
+5
37.5%
(06:09) #42 J.McGuire punt 53 yards to the MIA11 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at MIA11 PENALTY OSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from OSU36 to OSU31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 27
OWN 31
0
37.3%
(06:04) #42 J.McGuire punt 39 yards to the MIA30 fair catch by #10 M.Toney at MIA30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:5569% → 96%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
30.6%
(05:56) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 19 yards gain to the MIA49 (#7 J.Mathews Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
26.6%
(05:12) Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the OSU47 (#98 K.McDonald)Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
24.9%
(04:32) Shotgun #11 C.Beck rush left for 3 yards gain to the OSU44 (#8 A.Reese)Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
23.7%
(03:49) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #6 C.Brown caught at OSU40, for 5 yards to the OSU39 (#8 A.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
21.0%
(03:06) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush right for 13 yards gain to the OSU26 (#7 J.Mathews Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
16.7%
(02:20) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the OSU25 (#8 A.Reese; #92 C.Curry)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
12.3%
(01:59) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush right for 5 yards gain to the OSU20 (#53 W.Smith Jr.; #92 C.Curry)Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+13
11.3%
(01:48) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at OSU22, for 13 yards to the OSU07 (#26 P.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
9.3%
(01:45) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU05 (#98 K.McDonald; #53 W.Smith Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
3.6%
(00:55) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:55 #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:014% → 4%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.7%
(00:54) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete deep right to #17 C.Tate thrown to OSU45Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
3.6%
(00:48) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass intercepted by #8 J.Thomas at OSU47 QB hurried by #12 M.Lightfoot #8 J.Thomas return 3 yards to the OSU44, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
3.7%
(00:39) Kneel down by #11 C.Beck at OSU45 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:28
(13:34) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #4 J.Smith caught at MIA05, for 14 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:28, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MIA Holding declined #38 J.Fielding kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #43 J.Ferlmann)
+22.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:46
(01:48) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at OSU22, for 13 yards to the OSU07 (#26 P.Pierce), 1ST DOWN
-18.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:41
(01:45) Shotgun #6 C.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU05 (#98 K.McDonald; #53 W.Smith Jr.)
-18.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com