2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadGRAM aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreGRAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Clyde McClendon Jr. run for 1 yd to the GRAM 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:39: Julian Sayin pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 47 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — GRAM win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:38: Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:57: CJ Donaldson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GRAM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 9:06GRAM 4th & 5 at GRAM 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q1 7:29GRAM 4th & 9 at GRAM 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 1:53GRAM 4th & 1 at midfield, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:24GRAM 4th & 9 at OSU 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call0.5%77% to makePunt0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:16GRAM 4th & 12 at GRAM 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 12:04GRAM 4th & 7 at GRAM 41, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:19GRAM 4th & 20 at GRAM 15, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:55OSU 4th & 2 at GRAM 4, up 56Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%50% to convertField goal99.8%−0.193% to makePunt99.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 10:39GRAM 4th & 8 at GRAM 37, down 63Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 7:44OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 32, up 63Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 5:17GRAM 4th & 6 at GRAM 38, down 63Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 12:39OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:54OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:10OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:38OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:57OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:50OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:24OSU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:16OSU Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55OSU Touchdown, up 62 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:31OSU Touchdown, up 69 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1TD7 plays · 83 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
99.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 12 yds to the OSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 8 yds to the OSU 49Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
99.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 4 yds to the GRAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
99.6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 47 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 3:330% → 1%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.6%
C'zavian Teasett pass complete to Byron Eaton Jr. for 7 yds to the GRAM 32Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.6%
PENALTY OSU Offside (Houston,Eddrick) 5 yards from GSU32 to GSU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.6%
C'zavian Teasett pass complete to Covadis Knighten for 7 yds to the GRAM 44Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-1
99.6%
C'zavian Teasett pass complete to Covadis Knighten for a loss of 1 yard to the GRAM 43Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-1
99.6%
C'zavian Teasett pass complete to Tre Bradford for a loss of 1 yard to the GRAM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD1 play · 87 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
99.6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 87 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:250% → 1%
Q1 7:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Johnny Schifano punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD7 plays · 65 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
99.6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jelani Thurman for 26 yds to the GRAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
99.6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds to the GRAM 21Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+7
99.6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 7 yds to the GRAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
99.6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 8 yds to the GRAM 6Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+7
99.6%
Julian Sayin run for 7 yds to the GRAM 13 Julian Sayin fumbled, recovered by OSU CJ DonaldsonSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
99.6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 13 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 6MISSED FG15 plays · 56 yds · 4:461% → 1%
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.5%
PENALTY GSU False Start (Bethea,Armon) 5 yards from GSU29 to GSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
99.5%
C'zavian Teasett pass complete to Tylon Williams for 8 yds to the GRAM 32Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.5%
C'zavian Teasett pass complete to Tyson George for 6 yds to the OSU 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
99.5%
PENALTY OSU Offside (Houston,Eddrick) 5 yards from OSU25 to OSU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
Q2 14:24
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
99.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Bennett Christian for 1 yd to the OSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
99.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 13 yds to the OSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+40
99.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 40 yds to the GRAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
99.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 8 yds to the GRAM 9Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
99.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 8INT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:330% → 0%
OSUDrive 9INT5 plays · 16 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q2 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 1 yd to the GRAM 5Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Julian Sayin pass intercepted Tyrell Raby return for no gain to the GRAM 1Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Julian Sayin pass intercepted Tyrell Raby return for no gain to the GRAM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 3:450% → 0%
Q2 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+19
99.8%
C'zavian Teasett pass complete to Keith Jones Jr. for 19 yds to the GRAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
99.8%
C'zavian Teasett pass complete to Keith Jones Jr. for no gain to the GRAM 36Similar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 7
OWN 36
-5
99.8%
Schifano,Johnny punt 40 yards to the OSU24 Inniss,Brandon return 5 yards to the OSU29 (Hoff,Payton) PENALTY GSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from GSU36 to GSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 12
OWN 31
+8
99.8%
Johnny Schifano punt for 39 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 8 yds to the OSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD9 plays · 62 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
GRAMDrive 12END OF HALF6 plays · 2 yds · 0:570% → 0%
GRAMDrive 13FUMBLE RETURN TD2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q3 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Ashton Frye pass intercepted Aaron Scott Jr. return for no gain to the GRAM 32Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
99.9%
Ashton Frye pass complete to Tre Bradford for 10 yds to the GRAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
99.9%
Ashton Frye pass complete to Covadis Knighten for 7 yds to the GRAM 46Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-5
99.9%
PENALTY GSU False Start (Williams II,Patrick) 5 yards from GSU46 to GSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Johnny Schifano punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bryson Rodgers at the OSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD9 plays · 76 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q3 12:04
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Bryson Rodgers for 1 yd to the OSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
99.9%
Grambling Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jamal Jordan) to the GRAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
99.9%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to David Adolph for 8 yds to the GRAM 32Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+21
99.9%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Bryson Rodgers for 21 yds to the GRAM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 16FUMBLE3 plays · 16 yds · 0:530% → 0%
OSUDrive 17TD3 plays · 41 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q3 7:31
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+23
99.9%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Mylan Graham for 23 yds to the GRAM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:570% → 0%
OSUDrive 19TD8 plays · 53 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
GRAMDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 4:160% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q4 7:44
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Nick McLarty punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyrone Wilson at the GRAM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:270% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23TD12 plays · 84 yds · 4:46100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
100.0%
PENALTY GSU Offside (Monsanto,Shanye) 5 yards from GSU13 to GSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 5
OPP 8
-5
100.0%
Shotgun Jackson,Bo rush right for 8 yards gain to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:55 PENALTY OSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from GSU08 to GSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 24END OF GAME2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:38
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 12:39
Julian Sayin pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 47 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-0.1
TD · Q2 0:57
CJ Donaldson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+0.1