Ohio State

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3497th
  Defense+0.0960th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense52.6%96th
  Defense44.7%38th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3171st
  Defense+1.2067th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3096th
  Defense−0.1999th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4090th
  Defense+0.2727th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense57.4%96th
  Defense50.2%29th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense39.9%91st
  Defense33.3%40th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.5096th
  Defense2.2597th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.1%91st
  Defense25.0%88th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.6%60th
  Defense18.4%78th

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Ohio State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NEB
2. W
   PSU
3. W
   RUTG
4. W
   IU
5. W
   MSU
6. W
   NU
7. W
   CLEM
8. L
   ALA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Ohio State.

Players, 2020

1. Justin FieldsQB203 plays · +0.254 pts/play · 21st of 212 QBs
   0.97WAR0.62 to 1.34
2. Trey SermonRB94 plays · +0.193 pts/play · 81st of 338 RBs
   0.34WAR0.28 to 0.40
3. Master Teague IIIRB70 plays · +0.198 pts/play · 122nd of 338 RBs
   0.26WAR0.20 to 0.31
4. Chris OlaveWR35 plays · +0.224 pts/play · 59th of 409 WRs
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.19
5. Garrett WilsonWR48 plays · +0.149 pts/play · 73rd of 409 WRs
   0.13WAR0.08 to 0.19
6. Blake HaubeilPK6 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 73rd of 97 kickers
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03
7. Drue ChrismanP11 plays · +0.086 pts/play · 50th of 77 punters
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03
8. Jeremy RuckertTE8 plays · +0.071 pts/play · 92nd of 191 TEs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.02

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Ohio State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  9769763rd of 127Roster talent: 976, 3rd of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  2962963rd of 127Recruiting: 296, 3rd of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  62%62%67th of 127Returning production: 62%, 67th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +28.4+28.41st of 127SP+ rating: +28.4, 1st of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Ohio State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.03 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NUQ3 1:01 4th & 8 at NU 39, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
2. at PSUQ2 13:25 4th & 3 at PSU 3, up 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
3. at PSUQ2 0:01 4th & 6 at OSU 36, up 18Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts
4. at PSUQ3 1:02 4th & 4 at PSU 5, up 15Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
5. vs NEBQ2 13:41 4th & 1 at OSU 26, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
6. vs RUTGQ2 12:25 4th & 8 at OSU 36, up 11Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts
7. at MSUQ2 6:22 4th & 16 at MSU 36, up 21Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts
8. vs RUTGQ1 3:37 4th & 7 at RUTG 39, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

23rd of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Ohio State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NEB
2. W

   PSU
3. W

   RUTG
4. W

   IU
5. W

   MSU
6. W

   NU
7. W

   CLEM
8. L

   ALA

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Ohio State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.23
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock+0.05
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.35

Game by game

• NEBW 52-17 vs NEB95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +7
• PSUW 38-25 at PSU73% → 98%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +35, Clock +1
• RUTGW 49-27 vs RUTG99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +4
• IUW 42-35 vs IU93% → 94%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +12, Possession & field position +1
• MSUW 52-12 at MSU94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +9
• NUW 22-10 vs NU87% → 98%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +19
• CLEMW 49-28 at CLEM28% → 100%Before kickoff −22 · On the field +72: Scoreboard +64, Clock +3
• ALAL 24-52 at ALA25% → 0%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from Ohio State's side.

Closest call

OSU 52-51 MD (2018) - Ohio State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.