2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreNEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:18 · Blake Haubeil kickoff for 63 yds , Rahmir Johnson return for 13 yds to the Neb 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:02: Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 42 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:24: Dedrick Mills run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Culp KICK) — NEB win probability +3.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:10: Master Teague III run for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:24: Justin Fields run for 17 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q3 8:02: Adrian Martinez run for no gain Adrian Martinez fumbled, forced by Jonathon Cooper, recovered by OhSt Sevyn Banks , return for 55 yds (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 9:30OSU 4th & 5 at NEB 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.7%41% to convertField goal93.7%−<0.156% to makePunt93.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:20NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q1 1:26NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 43, down 7Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it7.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:41OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 26, up 7Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snapGo for it92.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:12OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt87.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 3:12OSU 4th & 6 at NEB 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.4%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call86.4%79% to makePunt84.1%−2.3average punt
- Q2 2:25NEB 4th & 25 at NEB 10, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snapGo for it9.9%−1.76% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.6%average punt
- Q3 3:56NEB 4th & 4 at OSU 4, down 24Close callKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.4%40% to convertField goalTheir call1.3%−0.193% to makePunt0.2%−1.3average punt
- Q4 13:16NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.427% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 4:26OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 42, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 2:53NEB 4th & 13 at NEB 9, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NEB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:09NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.3%97% to makeGo for two5.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:04OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:02OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:24NEB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.7%97% to makeGo for two10.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:10OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.7%97% to makeGo for two91.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:24OSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:58OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:18OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:415% → 5%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 9 yds to the Neb 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5695% → 94%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
94.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 14 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+24
94.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 24 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
94.4%
Justin Fields sacked by Will Honas for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 40Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+14
93.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 14 yds to the Neb 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:326% → 7%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 9 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
93.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 1 yd to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
93.5%
William Przystup punt for 47 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for 1 yd to the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD6 plays · 76 yds · 2:0993% → 94%
NEBDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:266% → 7%
Q1 3:00
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-2
93.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Neb Luke McCaffreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3093% → 93%
Q1 0:51
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+7
93.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jameson Williams for 7 yds to the OhSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 24
0
93.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for no gain to the OhSt 24Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
92.5%
Drue Chrisman punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Cam Taylor-Britt at the Neb 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10TD11 plays · 78 yds · 5:027% → 13%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
92.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 4 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+15
92.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 15 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+26
91.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 26 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11FG14 plays · 70 yds · 5:0089% → 89%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
88.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 12 yds to the OhSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+5
88.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Luke Farrell for 5 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
88.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 29 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
89.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 13 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12PUNT8 plays · -15 yds · 0:4512% → 12%
Q2 3:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
88.2%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Haskell Garrett for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 15Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+36
88.1%
William Przystup punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OHIOST 39 NEBRASKA Penalty, Personal Foul (Marquel Dismuke) to the Neb 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD6 plays · 46 yds · 1:0589% → 92%
NEBDrive 14END OF HALF4 plays · 0 yds · 0:288% → 8%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Levi Falck for 8 yds to the Neb 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2392% → 96%
Q3 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
91.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Trey Sermon for 7 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
91.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 16 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
92.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 9 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
92.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 9 yds to the Neb 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16FUMBLE TD8 plays · 30 yds · 3:095% → 2%
Q3 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
95.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 4 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
95.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 8 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+55
97.9%
Adrian Martinez run for no gain Adrian Martinez fumbled, forced by Jonathon Cooper, recovered by OhSt Sevyn Banks , return for 55 yds (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17FG10 plays · 72 yds · 3:512% → 2%
Q3 6:03
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+10
98.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ronald Thompkins for 10 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18FUMBLE7 plays · 69 yds · 3:0798% → 99%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-9
98.4%
Justin Fields sacked by Will Honas for a loss of 9 yards to the OhSt 1Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+32
98.7%
Steele Chambers run for 17 yds to the OhSt 23 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, Personal Foul (Cam Taylor-Britt) to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:451% → 1%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+6
98.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 6 yds to the Neb 17Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+5
98.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 5 yds to the Neb 22Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-1
99.1%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Zach Harrison for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 21Similar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+22
99.1%
William Przystup punt for 43 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for 22 yds to the Neb 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20TD8 plays · 42 yds · 2:5899% → 100%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
99.2%
Justin Fields sacked by Caleb Tannor for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 49Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 17
OPP 49
+13
99.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Julian Fleming for 13 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+15
99.2%
Fields, Justin pass incomplete to Smith-Njigba, Jaxon, PENALTY NEBRASKA personal foul (Williams, Deontai) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+6
99.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 6 yds to the Neb 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 5 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21FUMBLE8 plays · 45 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
99.9%
Luke McCaffrey pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 21 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
99.9%
Luke McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the OhSt 29 Luke McCaffrey fumbled, forced by Dallas Gant, recovered by OhSt Josh ProctorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q4 4:26
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Drue Chrisman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Wan'Dale Robinson at the Neb 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:070% → 0%
OSUDrive 24TD6 plays · 40 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:24
Dedrick Mills run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)
-3.7
TD · Q2 1:10
Master Teague III run for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+3.6
TD · Q3 11:24
Justin Fields run for 17 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+3.5