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OSU

Ohio State 24 at Alabama 52

ALA
2020 · CFP National Championship · Jan 11, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:29 · Drue Chrisman punt for 50 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 19 yds to the Alab 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Home team on offense+9.2Pregame prior+13.6Score differential+3.2Garbage-time factor+1.3Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:43: Master Teague III run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK) — OSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:00: Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 26 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +5.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:19: Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +7.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:45: Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 20 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK) — OSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:52: Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5OSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:39OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:07ALA 4th & 1 at OSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:54ALA 4th & 1 at OSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:32OSU 4th & 9 at ALA 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:21OSU 4th & 6 at ALA 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:29OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:42OSU 4th & 12 at OSU 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−2.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:04ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 46, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:47ALA 4th & 2 at OSU 2, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:02OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:52OSU 4th & 6 at ALA 6, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:22ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 10, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:53OSU 4th & 15 at OSU 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:07ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:55OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:53ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:43OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:00ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:19ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:48ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:45OSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:52ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:15ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1625% → 26%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.6%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
74.4%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Trey SermonSimilar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
74.4%
Justin Fields run for 1 yd to the OhSt 28Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+49
74.4%
Drue Chrisman punt for 49 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 5:2874% → 75%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
74.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+22
74.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 22 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
74.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 12 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
74.3%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+13
74.3%
Najee Harris run for 13 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
74.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-2
74.2%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 22Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+15
74.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 15 yds to the OhSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
74.1%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 9:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
74.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 2 yds to the OhSt 5Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
73.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 4 yds to the OhSt 1Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.4%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0525% → 29%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.1%
Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
74.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 3 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
74.9%
Master Teague III run for 2 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.9%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+20
75.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 20 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
74.5%
Master Teague III run for no gain to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+36
74.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 36 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
70.9%
Master Teague III run for 8 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5072% → 76%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
72.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 32 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
73.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
73.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 9 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+3
73.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 3 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
73.2%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the OhSt 18Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+6
73.2%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the OhSt 12Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
72.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 2 yds to the OhSt 10Similar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+3
72.0%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the OhSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
72.9%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the OhSt 2Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
72.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 5Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:1325% → 25%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
75.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jameson Williams for 14 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
74.5%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
74.2%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+13
74.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 13 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
73.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Garrett Wilson) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 15
50
+6
74.6%
Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
73.9%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
74.5%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Master Teague IIISimilar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
75.3%
Drue Chrisman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by DeVonta Smith at the Alab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:3276% → 76%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
75.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
75.8%
Mac Jones sacked by Baron Browning for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 19 Mac Jones fumbled, forced by Baron Browning, recovered by OhSt Baron Browning , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0427% → 33%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
72.9%
Fields, Justin pass incomplete to Williams, Jameson, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Jobe, Josh) 15 yards to the ALABAMA4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.1%
Master Teague III run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4071% → 78%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
70.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 16 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
71.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 13 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
71.9%
Najee Harris run for 13 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
72.4%
Mac Jones run for 7 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+26
77.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 26 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 3:3024% → 28%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.6%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+28
75.4%
Justin Fields run for 28 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
74.3%
Master Teague III run for 29 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
73.1%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-4
73.1%
Master Teague III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+8
75.4%
Fields, Justin pass incomplete to Ruckert, Jeremy, PENALTY ALABAMA personal foul (Battle, Jordan) 8 yards to the ALABAMA8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST. Jordan Battle ejected for targeting.Similar
Q2 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
74.2%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q2 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
74.2%
Master Teague III run for 2 yds to the Alab 6Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
75.2%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Luke FarrellSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
72.3%
Jake Seibert 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5773% → 83%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.0%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
72.8%
Jones, Mac pass complete to Metchie III, John for 11 yards to the ALABAMA36, PENALTY ALABAMA ineligible downfield on pass (Leatherwood, Alex) 5 yards to the ALABAMA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
72.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 16 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
73.6%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+44
74.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 44 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
75.6%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Metchie III, John, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Banks, Sevyn) 9 yards to the OHIOST5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q2 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4518% → 17%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.0%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Master Teague IIISimilar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.2%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Marcus Crowley for 4 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+19
83.2%
Drue Chrisman punt for 50 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 19 yds to the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:3384% → 89%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
83.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 14 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
84.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 4 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+42
89.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 42 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:5812% → 12%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.6%
Marcus Crowley run for 3 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
88.0%
Fields, Justin rush for 3 yards to the OHIOST31, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Jones, Matthew) 10 yards to the OHIOST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+3
88.5%
Marcus Crowley run for 3 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+2
88.6%
Marcus Crowley run for 2 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
88.4%
Drue Chrisman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by DeVonta Smith at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:3088% → 88%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
88.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 6 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+10
88.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 10 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
89.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 7 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-5
88.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Chris Owens) to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
88.8%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Xavier WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
88.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
87.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
87.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16FG
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:0888% → 96%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
88.3%
Najee Harris run for 13 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
90.4%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
91.3%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+9
91.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 9 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
92.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 13 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
92.3%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the OhSt 37Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+10
92.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 10 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
93.0%
Mac Jones sacked by Antwuan Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 28Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+12
93.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Xavier Williams for 12 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
93.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 5 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
93.7%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Miller ForristallSimilar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+6
93.6%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the OhSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.9%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the OhSt 5Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.1%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
94.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 3 yds to the OhSt 2Similar
Q3 7:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
95.9%
Will Reichard 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:564% → 15%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
95.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 17 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
95.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Christopher Allen) to the OhSt 47Similar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+33
95.4%
Justin Fields run for 33 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
84.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 20 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4090% → 98%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
89.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 6 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+22
89.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 22 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
91.6%
Mac Jones run for 10 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
92.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+21
92.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 21 yds to the OhSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
92.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the OhSt 5Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:443% → 2%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 11 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
97.1%
Master Teague III run for 2 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
97.4%
Justin Fields run for 4 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
97.7%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-2
97.8%
Master Teague III run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:3998% → 100%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.4%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the OhSt 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+27
98.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 27 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
98.6%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+10
98.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 10 yds to the OhSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.8%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the OhSt 1Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21DOWNS
20 plays · 69 yds · 5:160% → 0%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Marcus Crowley run for no gain to the OhSt 25Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 22Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+14
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 14 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 10 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 5 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-5
99.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Nicholas Petit-Frere) to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 15 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.9%
Marcus Crowley run for 2 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
Marcus Crowley run for 4 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+7
99.9%
Justin Fields run for 7 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 6 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+14
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 8 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Christian Barmore) to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Marcus CrowleySimilar
Q4 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q4 7:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 6Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+4
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 6
OWN 10
+3
99.9%
Charlie Scott punt for 40 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for 3 yds to the Alab 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
100.0%
Justin Fields sacked by Christian Barmore for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 47Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+1
100.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to Master Teague III for 1 yd to the OhSt 48Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 15
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Drue Chrisman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 35 yds · 4:47100% → 100%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 13 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+6
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+2
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+13
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 13 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:45
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 20 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 3:19
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q2 11:43
Master Teague III run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com