Ohio State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3194th
  Defense+0.0978th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense51.8%98th
  Defense41.3%59th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2467th
  Defense+1.1954th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2894th
  Defense+0.1051st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3581st
  Defense+0.1090th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense54.5%94th
  Defense47.0%50th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense44.2%99th
  Defense29.3%83rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3492nd
  Defense2.8255th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.7%86th
  Defense19.1%42nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.1%45th
  Defense2.9%88th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Ohio State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NAVY
2. L
   VT
3. W
   KENT
4. W
   CIN
5. W
   MD
6. W
   RUTG
7. W
   PSU
8. W
   ILL
9. W
   MSU
10. W
    MINN
11. W
    IU
12. W
    MICH
13. W
    WIS
14. W
    ALA
15. W
    ORE

Bars above the line: better than expected for Ohio State.

Players, 2014

1. J.T. BarrettQB341 plays · +0.371 pts/play · 15th of 199 QBs
   2.37WAR1.82 to 3.01
2. Ezekiel ElliottRB236 plays · +0.208 pts/play · 1st of 350 RBs
   0.92WAR0.71 to 1.13
3. Cardale JonesQB115 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 156th of 199 QBs
   0.28WAR0.05 to 0.51
4. Cameron JohnstonP40 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 37th of 94 punters
   0.11WAR0.04 to 0.19
5. Michael ThomasWR52 plays · +0.111 pts/play · 186th of 469 WRs
   0.11WAR0.03 to 0.20
6. Sean NuernbergerPK16 plays · +0.316 pts/play · 70th of 114 kickers
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.14
7. Jalin Marshall?41 plays · +0.094 pts/play
   0.07WAR0.00 to 0.15
8. Dontre WilsonWR16 plays · +0.013 pts/play · 447th of 469 WRs
   0.00WAR−0.01 to 0.02

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Ohio State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Ohio State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.13 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at PSUQ4 8:10 4th & 3 at PSU 42, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.4 pts
2. vs IUQ3 3:25 4th & 3 at OSU 49, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
3. vs MICHQ4 13:31 4th & 1 at OSU 33, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
4. at MINNQ3 0:37 4th & 3 at MINN 48, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. vs VTQ3 12:51 4th & 8 at VT 36, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. at MSUQ4 0:30 4th & 4 at MSU 33, up 12Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
7. at PSUQ2 0:00 4th & 7 at OSU 38, up 17Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at PSUQ1 6:02 4th & 1 at OSU 46, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

6th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Ohio State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NAVY
2. L

   VT
3. W

   KENT
4. W

   CIN
5. W

   MD
6. W

   RUTG
7. W

   PSU
8. W

   ILL
9. W

   MSU
10. W

    MINN
11. W

    IU
12. W

    MICH
13. W

    WIS
14. W

    ALA
15. W

    ORE

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Ohio State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.76
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.05
• Timeouts+0.16
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.59

Game by game

• NAVYW 34-17 at NAVY92% → 99%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +15
• VTL 21-35 vs VT81% → 1%Before kickoff +31 · On the field −80: Scoreboard −64, Clock −2
• KENTW 66-0 vs KENT97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +6
• CINW 50-28 vs CIN86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +20, Possession & field position −1
• MDW 52-24 at MD75% → 100%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +30, Clock +1
• RUTGW 56-17 vs RUTG92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +10
• PSUW 31-24 at PSU81% → 80%Before kickoff +31 · On the field −1: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +14
• ILLW 55-14 vs ILL97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• MSUW 49-37 at MSU45% → 98%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• MINNW 31-24 at MINN87% → 96%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +24, Clock +2
• IUW 42-27 vs IU97% → 99%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +6
• MICHW 42-28 vs MICH91% → 99%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +13, Timeouts +1
• WISW 59-0 vs WIS49% → 100%Before kickoff −1 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +47
• ALAW 42-35 vs ALA27% → 90%Before kickoff −23 · On the field +63: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +2
• OREW 42-20 vs ORE36% → 100%Before kickoff −14 · On the field +63: Scoreboard +51, Clock +1

Points of win probability, from Ohio State's side.

Closest call

OSU 52-51 MD (2018) - Ohio State dropped to a 4.3% win probability before pulling it out.