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OSU

Ohio State 31 at Minnesota 24

MINN
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:37 · Cameron Johnston punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior−12.1Home team on offense−18.0Score differential−7.7Garbage-time factor−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:24: David Cobb 30 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +10.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:37: Michael Thomas 30 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:08: Evan Spencer 22 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:08: David Cobb 12 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +10.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:19: Ryan Santoso 34 Yd Field Goal — MINN win probability +13.6 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 12:31OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:31MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:05MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:59MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:06OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:34MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:30MINN 4th & 3 at OSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:32MINN 4th & 11 at OSU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:37OSU 4th & 3 at MINN 48, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:56MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:34OSU 4th & 7 at MINN 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:14OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:33OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:27MINN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:24MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:37OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:08OSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:08MINN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1487% → 85%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
13.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
13.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 3 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-5
14.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 24Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+6
14.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
14.6%
Cameron Johnston punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5415% → 15%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
14.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Miles ThomasSimilar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
14.7%
KJ Maye run for 2 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
14.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 5 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
15.0%
Peter Mortell punt for 50 yds, downed at the OhSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 95 yds · 1:1185% → 85%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
15.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 6 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+3
15.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+86
14.7%
J.T. Barrett 86 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5515% → 15%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
14.9%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 37Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-7
15.1%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Joey Bosa for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+12
15.0%
Mitch Leidner run for 12 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
15.4%
Peter Mortell punt for 45 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for no gain to the OhSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 3:2285% → 86%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
15.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+8
15.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
15.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
15.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+8
15.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 8 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
15.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 41Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+2
15.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+57
13.8%
Jalin Marshall 57 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0115% → 14%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
14.7%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
14.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
14.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
13.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 24 yds · 1:2486% → 87%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
13.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 2 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+22
13.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 22 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
13.5%
J.T. Barrett pass intercepted Briean Boddy-Calhoun return for 56 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:5315% → 19%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
14.5%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+11
14.8%
David Cobb run for 11 yds to the OhSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
14.8%
David Cobb run for 9 yds to the OhSt 15Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+10
15.0%
David Cobb run for 10 yds to the OhSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.8%
David Cobb 5 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1483% → 82%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 20Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
17.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 6 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
18.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jeff HeuermanSimilar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
18.4%
Cameron Johnston punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2618% → 18%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
17.8%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 36Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-1
18.2%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
17.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Isaac FruechteSimilar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 10
OWN 35
-3
17.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 58 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11FUMBLE
8 plays · 94 yds · 3:5882% → 83%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
18.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 8Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+19
18.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 19 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
18.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
18.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+38
19.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 38 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
17.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 19 yds to the Minn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
16.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+5
16.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 5 yds Jalin Marshall fumbled, forced by Briean Boddy-Calhoun, recovered by Minn De'Vondre CampbellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:0118% → 31%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
18.3%
David Cobb run for 11 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
18.7%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+6
18.9%
David Cobb run for 6 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
19.8%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
20.1%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Williams, Maxx, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Bell, Vonn) 15 yards to the OHIOST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
20.9%
KJ Maye run for 8 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-1
22.0%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 35Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
21.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+10
20.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Miles Thomas for 10 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
22.4%
Cobb, David rush for no gain to the OHIOST25, PENALTY MINNESOTA holding (Campion, Josh) 10 yards to the OHIOST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+5
21.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
21.5%
David Cobb run for no gain to the OhSt 30Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+30
31.4%
David Cobb 30 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13END OF HALF
14 plays · 57 yds · 1:1074% → 79%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
26.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 6 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
26.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Devin SmithSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+8
26.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
25.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jeff HeuermanSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
26.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Evan SpencerSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+12
27.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 12 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
25.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
25.1%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Thomas, Michael, PENALTY MINNESOTA pass interference (Murray, Eric) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
23.7%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+16
24.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 11 yds to the Minn 10 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
21.0%
Sean Nuernberger 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14MISSED FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:1828% → 28%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
27.6%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
27.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+14
26.7%
Leidner, Mitch pass pass intercepted by Grant, Doran at the MINNESOTA49, Grant, Doran return 49 yards to the MINNESOTA0, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Grant, Doran) 14 yards to the OHIOST48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
30.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 8 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
30.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+6
30.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 6 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
31.8%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-3
32.0%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Joshua Perry and Adolphus Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
30.3%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+52
27.6%
Ryan Santoso 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:4873% → 83%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
27.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
25.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
25.2%
Jalin Marshall run for 12 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
25.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 10 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
24.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the Minn 30Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+30
16.7%
Michael Thomas 30 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16INT
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:4617% → 17%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
17.0%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the Minn 15Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 15
-5
17.3%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Lincoln Plsek) to the Minn 10Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+18
16.2%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Darron Lee) to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
16.8%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Raekwon McMillan and Joey Bosa for a loss of 10 yards to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+12
16.2%
Donnell Kirkwood run for 12 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+36
15.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 36 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
19.7%
David Cobb run for no gain to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-6
19.6%
KJ Maye sacked by Darron Lee for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 16
OPP 40
+28
16.8%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Doran Grant return for 28 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5885% → 83%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
15.0%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 43 J.T. Barrett fumbled, recovered by OhSt J.T. BarrettSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+8
15.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+1
15.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the Minn 48Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
16.8%
Cameron Johnston punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:3516% → 15%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
16.0%
David Cobb run for 9 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+2
16.7%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
16.4%
David Cobb run for 8 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
16.8%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 38Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-5
16.5%
Leidner, Mitch rush for 1 yard to the MINNESOTA39, PENALTY MINNESOTA illegal formation 5 yards to the MINNESOTA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+15
15.2%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Vonn Bell return for 15 yds to the Minn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:3287% → 96%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
13.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+5
13.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
13.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 6 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
11.9%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Devin SmithSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-2
12.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+22
4.2%
Evan Spencer 22 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:095% → 5%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
4.6%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
4.6%
David Cobb run for 11 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
4.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Lincoln PlsekSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
4.9%
Donnell Kirkwood run for 1 yd to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
4.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 9
OWN 47
+3
4.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 42 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 3 yds to the OhSt 14 Jalin Marshall fumbled, recovered by Minn Miles ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:226% → 16%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
5.6%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the OhSt 12Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
15.6%
David Cobb 12 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22PUNT
14 plays · 34 yds · 4:1189% → 94%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
10.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
9.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
9.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the OhSt 31Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+4
9.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
10.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
8.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 10 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
7.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
6.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-4
5.4%
J.T. Barrett sacked by De'Vondre Campbell for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 46Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
5.6%
Cameron Johnston punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 1:114% → 18%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
3.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+15
3.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 15 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
3.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 1
50
0
3.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Isaac FruechteSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 1
50
-5
3.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Zac Epping) to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+7
3.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 7 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
3.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+31
3.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 31 yds to the OhSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
4.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+34
18.2%
Ryan Santoso 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:5596% → 96%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-2
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:19
Ryan Santoso 34 Yd Field Goal
+13.6
TD · Q2 1:24
David Cobb 30 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)
+10.7
TD · Q4 7:08
David Cobb 12 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com