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ALA

Alabama 35 at Ohio State 42

OSU
2014 · Allstate Sugar Bowl - Semifinal · Jan 1, 2015 · Caesars Superdome
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+8.8OSU 97.5%Ezekiel Elliott 85 Yd Run (CardaleJones Pass to Michael Thomas forTwo-Point Conversion)AWAY 28 - HOME 42 · Q4 3:24
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:24 · Ezekiel Elliott 85 Yd Run (Cardale Jones Pass to Michael Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Pregame prior−1.3Home team on offense+28.0Garbage-time factor+14.7Score differential+12.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:12: Michael Thomas 13 Yd pass from Evan Spencer (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:44: Devin Smith 47 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +14.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:21: Steve Miller 41 Yd Interception Return (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +22.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:01: Blake Sims 5 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +25.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:59: Amari Cooper 6 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +10.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:58ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32OSU 4th & 5 at ALA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:02ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:17OSU 4th & 4 at ALA 4, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:46OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 14, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:51ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:27ALA 4th & 1 at OSU 6, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−1.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:32ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 18, up 8
    Close callPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:38ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:31OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:10OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:17ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:53OSU 4th & 17 at OSU 2, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−7.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:46OSU 4th & 14 at OSU 4, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−6.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:24ALA 4th & 9 at OSU 43, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−1.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−3.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:59ALA 4th & 2 at OSU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:33OSU 4th & 20 at OSU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:25ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:06ALA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:07ALA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:55OSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:12OSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:44OSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:21OSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:01ALA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:24OSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:59ALA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5773% → 72%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
27.4%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
27.7%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
27.8%
JK Scott punt for 53 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for no gain to the OhSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:1828% → 29%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
27.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
28.0%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Evan SpencerSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+12
28.0%
Cardale Jones run for 12 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
28.2%
Jalin Marshall run for 13 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
28.5%
Jalin Marshall run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 41Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+54
28.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 54 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
28.9%
Cardale Jones run for no gain to the Alab 5Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
29.2%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Evan SpencerSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
29.2%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
29.3%
Sean Nuernberger 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1871% → 70%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
29.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 6 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 4
OWN 18
-1
29.5%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
30.1%
Blake Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 5
OWN 17
+10
30.4%
JK Scott punt for 73 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 10 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
30.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 17 yds to the OhSt 37 Ezekiel Elliott fumbled, forced by Eddie Jackson, recovered by Alab Landon Collins , return for 4 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:2071% → 72%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
29.5%
Blake Sims run for 8 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+25
28.4%
Derrick Henry 25 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 3:5929% → 32%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
29.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 11 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
29.3%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
29.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+20
29.5%
Cardale Jones run for 20 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
30.3%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
30.3%
Cardale Jones run for 1 yd to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+40
30.2%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Devin Smith for 40 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-8
31.0%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 9 Cardale Jones fumbled, recovered by OhSt Cardale JonesSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
31.3%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Nick Vannett for 5 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
31.2%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q1 5:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
31.5%
Sean Nuernberger 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:4368% → 73%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
31.6%
Derrick Henry run for 11 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Eli Apple) to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
30.8%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 2
OPP 45
0
30.6%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to DeAndrew WhiteSimilar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+9
31.3%
T.J. Yeldon run for 9 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
31.3%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
31.0%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
31.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 10 yds to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
26.7%
Amari Cooper 15 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0928% → 28%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
27.9%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 2 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-12
28.0%
Cardale Jones sacked by Xzavier Dickson for a loss of 12 yards to the OhSt 2Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 2
+12
27.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 12 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+10
27.5%
Cameron Johnston punt for 57 yds , Christion Jones returns for 10 yds to the Alab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4972% → 71%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
28.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 7 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
28.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for no gain to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+1
28.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 2
OWN 47
-5
28.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
28.7%
JK Scott punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:3628% → 29%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
28.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+1
28.2%
Jalin Marshall run for 1 yd to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
28.2%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for no gain to the OhSt 15Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
28.2%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+14
27.8%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 14 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
28.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+32
28.7%
Cardale Jones pass intercepted Cyrus Jones return for 32 yds to the OhSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:5673% → 78%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
26.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Brian Vogler for 4 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
25.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to Brian Vogler for 5 yds to the OhSt 6Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
26.1%
T.J. Yeldon run for no gain to the OhSt 6Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+4
27.1%
T.J. Yeldon run for 4 yds to the OhSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
22.2%
T.J. Yeldon 2 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD
15 plays · 71 yds · 5:0024% → 30%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
23.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 30Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-1
23.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+26
22.9%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 26 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
24.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Ezekiel Elliott) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 15
50
+6
23.4%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 6 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
23.9%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Corey SmithSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+26
23.5%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 26 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
24.7%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+13
24.7%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 13 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
24.7%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 6Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
24.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Eddie Jackson) to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
24.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 6Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
24.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.7%
Ezekiel Elliott 3 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1473% → 72%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
27.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 6 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+2
27.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 2 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
27.0%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to DeAndrew WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
27.8%
JK Scott punt for 59 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:1226% → 44%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
26.1%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 14 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
26.9%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Corey Smith for 5 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+18
28.2%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Nick Vannett for 18 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+27
29.0%
Cardale Jones run for 27 yds to the Alab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
30.7%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
43.5%
Michael Thomas 13 Yd pass from Evan Spencer (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
36.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1039% → 57%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
38.9%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 11 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
40.0%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
42.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
43.0%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Corey SmithSimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
42.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+47
56.6%
Devin Smith 47 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:5347% → 43%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
52.6%
Blake Sims run for 18 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
51.6%
T.J. Yeldon run for 8 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-6
49.8%
Blake Sims sacked by Darron Lee for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-9
52.8%
Blake Sims sacked by Michael Bennett for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
56.7%
JK Scott punt for 65 yds, downed at the OhSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:5957% → 60%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
56.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 9Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+6
56.9%
Cardale Jones run for 6 yds to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
58.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
59.0%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+12
57.8%
Cardale Jones run for 12 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
59.7%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Evan Spencer for 7 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
62.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-4
61.9%
Noah Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 39Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
59.6%
Cameron Johnston punt for 60 yds, downed at the Alab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19INT TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 3:0442% → 21%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
58.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Alab 2Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+10
59.3%
T.J. Yeldon run for 10 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+21
58.9%
Derrick Henry run for 21 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
57.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 4 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-1
56.6%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+41
79.5%
Steve Miller 41 Yd Interception Return (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 2:1020% → 46%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
80.4%
Blake Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+15
81.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 15 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+52
79.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to Derrick Henry for 52 yds to the OhSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
77.3%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the OhSt 10Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+5
78.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 5 yds to the OhSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.2%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Brian VoglerSimilar
Q3 1:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.2%
Blake Sims 5 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4570% → 68%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.8%
Cardale Jones run for 5 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
71.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
70.1%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 27Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
68.2%
Cameron Johnston punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Christion Jones at the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4837% → 30%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
62.8%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+3
60.2%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
62.4%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 11 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
60.3%
Blake Sims sacked by Darron Lee for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
65.5%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+2
67.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to Derrick Henry for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
69.6%
JK Scott punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:1778% → 76%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
78.1%
Cardale Jones sacked by D.J. Pettway for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 4Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 15
OWN 4
+2
78.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 6Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 13
OWN 6
0
77.4%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Devin SmithSimilar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 13
OWN 6
-3
76.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-3 Yards) to the OhSt 3Similar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 16
OWN 3
-1
76.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the OhSt 2Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 17
OWN 2
0
76.3%
Cameron Johnston punt for 21 yds, downed at the OhSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
62.2%
Blake Sims pass intercepted Vonn Bell return for 7 yds to the OhSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4979% → 78%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
79.4%
Cardale Jones sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 4Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 14
OWN 4
0
79.5%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Evan SpencerSimilar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 14
OWN 4
0
78.5%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 14
OWN 4
0
77.8%
Cameron Johnston punt for 51 yds , Christion Jones returns for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:1632% → 19%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
68.4%
Blake Sims run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 5
50
+6
73.5%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
73.8%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+1
74.6%
Blake Sims run for 1 yd to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-3
75.8%
Blake Sims run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
81.4%
JK Scott punt for 38 yds, downed at the OhSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 27TD
4 plays · 95 yds · 1:5688% → 98%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
87.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 9Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+5
87.8%
Cardale Jones run for 5 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+1
88.7%
Cardale Jones run for 1 yd to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
97.5%
Ezekiel Elliott 85 Yd Run (Cardale Jones Pass to Michael Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:133% → 14%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.0%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+51
97.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 51 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
96.4%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Derrick HenrySimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
96.4%
Blake Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+8
96.9%
Blake Sims pass complete to Chris Black for 8 yds to the OhSt 6Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
86.4%
Amari Cooper 6 Yd pass from Blake Sims (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · -10 yds · 0:1796% → 94%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
95.6%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Evan SpencerSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
94.8%
Curtis Samuel run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 9
50
-11
95.3%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 11 yards to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 20
OWN 39
0
94.3%
Cameron Johnston punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Christion Jones at the Alab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 30INT
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:258% → 10%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
92.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 6 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
91.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to Chris Black for 2 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+12
92.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 12 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
92.2%
Blake Sims run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
50
+8
90.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 8 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
89.6%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to DeAndrew WhiteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+30
90.1%
Blake Sims pass intercepted Tyvis Powell return for 29 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:01
Blake Sims 5 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)
-25
TD · Q3 3:21
Steve Miller 41 Yd Interception Return (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
+22.9
TD · Q3 12:44
Devin Smith 47 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com