2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · M&T Bank Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreOSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:05 · Cameron Johnston punt for 53 yds, downed at the Navy 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 13:08: Darron Lee 61 Yd Fumble Return (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q3 11:15: Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK) — NAVY win probability +13.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:10: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 80 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +18.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 13:54: Nick Sloan 32 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +6.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:54: Ezekiel Elliott run for 10 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 13:05OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 46, tiedClose callPunted · 87.5% before the snapGo for it87.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:51NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it14.2%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.3%average punt
- Q1 4:26OSU 4th & 5 at NAVY 29, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snapGo for it83.4%41% to convertField goalTheir call83.4%−<0.158% to makePunt82.7%−0.7average punt
- Q2 14:04NAVY 4th & 1 at OSU 1, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.9%59% to convertField goal18.1%−0.994% to makePunt15.8%−3.1average punt
- Q2 12:38OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 42, down 4Close callPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it77.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:34NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 20, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snapGo for it22.3%−0.427% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q2 6:02NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 10, up 4Close callPunted · 27.3% before the snapGo for it27.1%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 2:04OSU 4th & 9 at NAVY 11, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snapGo for it67.8%−0.627% to convertField goalTheir call68.4%87% to makePunt63.9%−4.5average punt
- Q3 8:34OSU 4th & 1 at NAVY 45, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.8%70% to convertField goal57.3%−5.525% to makePunt59.3%−3.5average punt
- Q3 4:21NAVY 4th & 28 at midfield, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it39.2%−5.07% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.2%average punt
- Q4 13:54NAVY 4th & 9 at OSU 14, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snapGo for it25.9%−2.329% to convertField goalTheir call28.2%84% to makePunt15.7%−12.5average punt
- Q4 10:07OSU 4th & 1 at NAVY 45, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.9%70% to convertField goal62.0%−9.925% to makePunt65.6%−6.3average punt
- Q4 6:57NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 27, down 10Close callPunted · 10.3% before the snapGo for it10.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 14:04NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.8%97% to makeGo for two21.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:08OSU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.5%97% to makeGo for two79.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:15NAVY Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.6%97% to makeGo for two32.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:10OSU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.9%97% to makeGo for two76.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:54OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.9%97% to makeGo for two87.4%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 2:09OSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4292% → 92%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
7.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 14 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 4:039% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3FG9 plays · 28 yds · 4:1490% → 88%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-9
10.4%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Paul Quessenberry for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 19
OPP 43
+8
11.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 21
OPP 45
+16
11.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 16 yds to the Navy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0612% → 16%
OSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1084% → 83%
Q2 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
16.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 4 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5617% → 18%
Q2 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
18.0%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Adolphus Washington for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+5
17.9%
Pablo Beltran punt for 50 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 5 yds to the OhSt 25 OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Eli Apple) to the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7INT8 plays · 67 yds · 2:5681% → 81%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
19.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Evan Spencer for 5 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+9
19.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 9 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
19.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 10 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+30
19.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 30 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
19.2%
J.T. Barrett pass intercepted Parrish Gaines return for no gain to the Navy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2222% → 22%
Q2 6:02
4TH & 3
OWN 10
+11
22.1%
Pablo Beltran punt for 42 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 11 yds to the Navy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9FG8 plays · 30 yds · 3:3879% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10MISSED FG12 plays · 47 yds · 1:5327% → 30%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12FUMBLE RETURN TD6 plays · 39 yds · 1:4229% → 21%
NAVYDrive 13TD6 plays · 84 yds · 1:2519% → 36%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+67
18.5%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 67 yds to the OhSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14DOWNS7 plays · 28 yds · 2:3669% → 68%
Q3 10:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+22
31.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 22 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT11 plays · 3 yds · 3:5939% → 37%
Q3 5:09
2ND & 12
OPP 34
-11
43.7%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Curtis Grant for a loss of 11 yards to the OhSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
18.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 80 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17FG13 plays · 61 yds · 4:5020% → 31%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Geoffrey Whiteside for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
20.2%
Copeland, Noah rush for 12 yards to the NAVY40, PENALTY NAVY holding (Fleming, Tanner) 10 yards to the NAVY18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
26.9%
DeBrandon Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 17 DeBrandon Sanders fumbled, recovered by Navy DeBrandon SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD13 plays · 80 yds · 4:4873% → 92%
NAVYDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:438% → 7%
Q4 6:57
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+8
6.8%
Pablo Beltran punt for 51 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 8 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20TD8 plays · 70 yds · 4:3991% → 99%
Q4 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
1.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 9 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21END OF HALF7 plays · 26 yds · 2:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:10
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 80 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-18.6
TD · Q3 11:15
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q3 13:08
Darron Lee 61 Yd Fumble Return (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
-12.2