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OSU

Ohio State 49 at Michigan State 37

MSU
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:44 · Sean Nuernberger 47 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior+4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:19: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 79 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:56: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 44 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:18: Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:07: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 7 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +11.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:15: Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6OSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 11:44OSU 4th & 6 at MSU 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:20MSU 4th & 22 at MSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:48MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:27OSU 4th & 1 at MSU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−6.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:30MSU 4th & 13 at OSU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:59MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:38MSU 4th & 7 at OSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−10.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:00MSU 4th & 5 at OSU 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:30OSU 4th & 4 at MSU 33, up 12
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:42MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:41OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:14MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:27OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:37MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:19OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:56OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:18OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:07OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:15MSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:12OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:20MSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:1645% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
55.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 12 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
55.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 14 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
55.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
55.1%
Barrett, J.T. rush for 8 yards to the MICHIGANST41, PENALTY MICHIGANST offside 5 yards to the MICHIGANST44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
55.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 4 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+6
55.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
55.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Pat Elflein) to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 15
OPP 39
0
55.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Evan SpencerSimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 15
OPP 39
0
55.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Dontre WilsonSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+9
55.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 9 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
55.2%
Sean Nuernberger 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:0255% → 58%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
55.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+44
55.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 44 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
56.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the OhSt 15Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
56.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jeremy LangfordSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
58.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 15 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:0143% → 46%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
57.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 19 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+47
57.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 47 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.8%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Devin SmithSimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:2156% → 55%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
55.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 17 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
56.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-10
55.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Travis Jackson) to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 20
OWN 32
0
55.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 20
OWN 32
-5
55.1%
Cook, Connor pass complete to Lippett, Tony for 10 yards to the MICHIGANST42, PENALTY MICHIGANST illegal formation 5 yards to the MICHIGANST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 25
OWN 27
-1
55.1%
Connor Cook sacked by Michael Bennett for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 30 Connor Cook fumbled, forced by Michael Bennett, recovered by MchSt Donavon Clark , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
54.9%
Mike Sadler punt for 37 yds , Jeff Greene returns for no gain to the OhSt 33 Jeff Greene fumbled, recovered by MchSt Chris FreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
60.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 18 yds · 4:3941% → 39%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
58.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 8 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+6
58.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
58.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
58.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+14
58.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 14 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
58.8%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Spencer, Evan, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Hicks, Darian) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
58.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 15
OPP 27
-15
59.0%
Barrett, J.T. pass complete to Smith, Devin for 18 yards to the MICHIGANST9, PENALTY OHIOST illegal use of hands (Decker, Taylor) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 30
OPP 42
+1
59.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 29
OWN 41
-14
60.6%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Demetrious Cox for a loss of 14 yards to the MICHIGANST 45 OHIO ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (J.T. Barrett) to the OhSt 45Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 43
OWN 45
0
61.2%
Cameron Johnston punt for 48 yds, downed at the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4761% → 60%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
60.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 8
OWN 9
0
60.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 9
0
60.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 8
OWN 9
0
60.0%
Mike Sadler punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:2141% → 45%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
59.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (J.T. Barrett) to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+5
60.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the OhSt 49Similar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
59.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Ezekiel Elliott) to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 44
-8
60.8%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Joel Heath and Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 36
0
61.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 23
OWN 36
+43
61.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 43 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
58.8%
Jalin Marshall run for 14 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
58.9%
Jalin Marshall run for 4 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
59.0%
Jalin Marshall run for 1 yd to the MchSt 2Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
16 plays · 66 yds · 7:5058% → 69%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
57.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 4 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
58.8%
Nick Hill run for 3 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
58.3%
Connor Cook run for 4 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
59.1%
Nick Hill run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+14
57.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 14 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
58.6%
Connor Cook run for 2 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
59.2%
Delton Williams run for 6 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+7
59.3%
Delton Williams run for 7 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
59.7%
Delton Williams run for 7 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
59.9%
Delton Williams run for no gain to the OhSt 24Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+5
59.1%
Connor Cook run for 5 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
60.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 11 yds to the OhSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
60.3%
Connor Cook run for 7 yds to the OhSt 1Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10MISSED FG
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:0769% → 66%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
69.2%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
69.4%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. run for 7 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 3
OPP 11
-10
68.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jack Allen) to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 13
OPP 21
0
68.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+39
66.3%
Michael Geiger 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
53.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 79 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:2057% → 56%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
56.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 10 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
57.8%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
57.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+5
56.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joey Bosa) to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
58.0%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+26
55.9%
Mike Sadler punt for 48 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 26 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:0348% → 63%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
52.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
52.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+12
50.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Evan Spencer for 12 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
49.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jeff HeuermanSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
37.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 44 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:5641% → 41%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
41.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+14
42.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 14 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
42.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 10 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
42.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
42.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-1
41.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 6:2242% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
41.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+15
41.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 15 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
43.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 9 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-8
44.3%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 41 Jeremy Langford fumbled, forced by Adolphus Washington, recovered by MchSt Jack AllenSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+19
40.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 19 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
43.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Donavon Clark) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 20
50
0
41.5%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 20
50
+12
40.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 12 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+12
42.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 12 yds to the OhSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
44.9%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the OhSt 26Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
44.6%
R.J. Shelton run for 3 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
42.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
49.2%
Michael Geiger 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 6:2055% → 78%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
45.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+17
45.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
50
+7
42.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jeff Heuerman for 7 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
40.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
40.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
40.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Dontre WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
40.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+16
39.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 16 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
35.4%
Evan Spencer run for 9 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+5
35.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
34.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.3%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:1825% → 23%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+30
24.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 30 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
26.6%
Connor Cook sacked by Michael Bennett for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+11
24.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 11 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
25.8%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 35
-1
22.9%
Nick Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:5380% → 95%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
20.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
19.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jeff Heuerman for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+20
18.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 20 yds to the MchSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
16.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
16.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
5.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 7 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:526% → 20%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
6.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 17 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
6.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jeremy Langford for 11 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
6.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 3 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
6.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 6 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
6.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
6.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 20 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
19.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:0386% → 97%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
13.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+55
12.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 55 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
10.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+17
3.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 17 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 1:524% → 14%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
4.4%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
4.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Keith MumpherySimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+18
4.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 18 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
4.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 18 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
4.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 13 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
4.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Connor Kruse) to the OhSt 37Similar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 20
OPP 37
0
4.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+22
3.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 7 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
3.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 14 yds to the OhSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22PUNT
17 plays · 42 yds · 4:5092% → 98%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
7.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
7.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
7.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
6.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
50
+5
5.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
3.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
3.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
3.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
2.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
2.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+2
1.8%
Cameron Johnston punt for 28 yds , RJ Williamson returns for 2 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:302% → 2%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
2.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 11 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST down lat. to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down lat. to Jeremy Langford for 4 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
2.3%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+13
2.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 13 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
2.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 16 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:15
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+13.7
TD · Q2 3:19
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 79 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q2 0:56
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 44 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com