Try the model
MICH

Michigan 28 at Ohio State 42

OSU
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Ohio Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:34: Drake Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK) — MICH win probability +7.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:07: J.T. Barrett run for 25 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:58: J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:41: Drake Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK) — MICH win probability +13.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:08: Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +14.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 8:03MICH 4th & 26 at MICH 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:08OSU 4th & 20 at MICH 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:47OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:02OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:15MICH 4th & 21 at MICH 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 0:01MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:31OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 33, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:25MICH 4th & 14 at OSU 39, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:58OSU 4th & 1 at MICH 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%−2.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:09MICH 4th & 2 at midfield, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:34OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:42MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:34MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:07OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:58OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:41MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:08OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:58OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:15MICH Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:189% → 9%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
91.1%
Drake Johnson run for 7 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 3
OWN 17
0
91.0%
Devin Gardner pass intercepted Vonn Bell return for no gain to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:1191% → 91%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
90.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+9
90.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 9 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
90.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+1
90.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Evan Spencer for 1 yd to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+17
90.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 17 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
90.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Billy Price) to the Mich 6Similar
Q1 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 6 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 3:129% → 10%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
90.6%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Justice Hayes for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 16Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+15
90.6%
Drake Johnson run for 15 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
90.4%
Devin Gardner sacked by Adolphus Washington for a loss of 10 yards to the Mich 21Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 20
OWN 21
+4
90.4%
Dennis Norfleet run for 4 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 16
OWN 25
-10
90.4%
Devin Gardner sacked by Darron Lee for a loss of 10 yards to the Mich 15Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 26
OWN 15
+23
90.4%
Will Hagerup punt for 39 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 23 yds to the Mich 38 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chris Rock) to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4291% → 90%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
90.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+8
90.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
90.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Nick VannettSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
90.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 15
OPP 32
0
90.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 15
OPP 32
-5
89.8%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 20
OPP 37
0
89.8%
Cameron Johnston punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:0310% → 14%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
89.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 5 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
89.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 7 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
89.6%
Drake Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
89.5%
Devin Gardner run for 8 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
89.1%
Joe Kerridge run for 2 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+45
89.1%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 45 yds to the OhSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
86.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:5287% → 86%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
87.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
87.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-3
87.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
86.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
86.0%
Cameron Johnston punt for 54 yds, downed at the Mich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
17 plays · 95 yds · 6:5614% → 26%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
85.7%
Drake Johnson run for 6 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+14
85.5%
Drake Johnson run for 14 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.2%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 15 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
84.2%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 6 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
83.7%
Drake Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+10
83.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Joe Kerridge for 10 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
82.9%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete, broken up by Joey BosaSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
82.8%
Devin Gardner run for 6 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+9
82.6%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Dennis Norfleet for 9 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
81.8%
Drake Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+16
81.5%
Devin Gardner run for 16 yds to the OhSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
80.8%
Drake Johnson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 12Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
79.8%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+10
80.9%
Devin Gardner run for 10 yds to the OhSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.6%
Drake Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1376% → 75%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 26Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
76.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
76.3%
Curtis Samuel run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 33Similar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
75.1%
Cameron Johnston punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dennis Norfleet at the Mich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:1525% → 29%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
74.6%
Drake Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+12
74.2%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Justice Hayes for 12 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
72.1%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 12 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
70.7%
Johnson, Drake rush for 3 yards to the OHIOST41, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Darboh, Amara) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 20
OWN 46
0
71.6%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 20
OWN 46
-9
72.1%
Devin Gardner sacked by Michael Bennett for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 29
OWN 37
+8
70.8%
Justice Hayes run for 8 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 21
OWN 45
0
70.7%
Will Hagerup punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 2:0171% → 83%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
71.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jeff HeuermanSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
70.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 11 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-14
70.6%
Barrett, J.T. rush quarterback scramble for 2 yards to the OHIOST30, PENALTY OHIOST illegal shift declined, PENALTY OHIOST face mask (Boren, Jacoby) 14 yards to the OHIOST14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 24
OWN 14
+6
69.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 6 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+16
68.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 16 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+12
70.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 12 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
71.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 16 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
71.8%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Devin SmithSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
71.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 11 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
73.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
83.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 25 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:4280% → 86%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
79.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
79.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+13
78.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jeff Heuerman for 13 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+52
80.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 52 yds to the Mich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
86.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jourdan Lewis) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:0415% → 32%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.4%
Drake Johnson run for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
84.6%
Drake Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
84.7%
Drake Johnson run for 8 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
84.2%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by Eli AppleSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
83.1%
Dennis Norfleet run for 9 yds to the OHIOST 49 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Butt) to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+11
84.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Drake Johnson for 11 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
83.9%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 15 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
83.0%
Drake Johnson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
82.6%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Drake JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+5
83.9%
Gardner, Devin rush for loss of 2 yards to the OHIOST31, fumble by Gardner, Devin recovered by OHIOST Grant, Curtis at OHIOST31, PENALTY OHIOST offside (Bosa, Joey) 5 yards to the OHIOST24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
83.5%
Joe Kerridge run for 2 yds to the OhSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
82.2%
Drake Johnson pass complete to Devin Gardner for 18 yds to the OhSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.3%
Drake Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 6:0776% → 91%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
75.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+8
75.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
75.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
75.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
75.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
76.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the OhSt 44Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
75.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+9
74.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 9 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
76.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 22 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
77.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 7 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
77.3%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+8
75.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 8 yds to the Mich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
77.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
76.9%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Smith, Corey, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Bolden, Joe) 3 yards to the MICHIGAN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0015% → 13%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.4%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.7%
Devin Gardner run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
86.2%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
86.8%
Will Hagerup punt for 49 yds, downed at the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2990% → 89%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
89.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
90.3%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the OhSt 33 (Barrett injured on the play, carted off)Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
89.6%
Cardale Jones run for no gain to the OhSt 33Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
89.2%
Cameron Johnston punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:5013% → 13%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
86.9%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
87.1%
Devin Gardner run for 4 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+17
87.7%
Devin Gardner run for 2 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Joey Bosa) to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
85.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Joe Kerridge for 8 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+6
84.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
84.0%
Devin Gardner run for 11 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
82.2%
Dennis Norfleet run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 13
OPP 38
-1
84.6%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
86.1%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by Vonn BellSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
87.1%
Will Hagerup punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:1291% → 97%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
90.7%
Jalin Marshall run for 10 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
90.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Jeff Heuerman) to the OhSt 29Similar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
90.5%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+18
91.0%
Cardale Jones run for 18 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
92.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+1
92.8%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 7
50
+6
92.7%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Corey Smith for 6 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+44
97.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 44 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:273% → 1%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
97.3%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 5 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+11
97.1%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 11 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+33
99.4%
Devin Gardner sacked by Joey Bosa for a loss of 5 yards Devin Gardner fumbled, forced by Joey Bosa, recovered by OhSt Darron Lee , return for 33 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:251% → 3%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
99.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 11 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
99.4%
Devin Gardner sacked by Joey Bosa for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+15
99.6%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 2
50
0
99.6%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Justice HayesSimilar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 2
50
+3
99.6%
Devin Gardner run for 3 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 7 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+12
99.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 12 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
99.4%
Gardner, Devin pass incomplete to Funchess, Devin, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Apple, Eli) 10 yards to the OHIOST18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
99.4%
Gardner, Devin pass incomplete to Canteen, Freddy, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Apple, Eli) 15 yards to the OHIOST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.6%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Freddy Canteen for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 47Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 46
-2
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:08
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+14.1
TD · Q3 7:41
Drake Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)
-13.9
TD · Q2 0:07
J.T. Barrett run for 25 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com