YardLine - College football win probability

MINN

Minnesota 3 at Ohio State 42

OSU

2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Ohio Stadium

Speed4x

Win probability · OSU

modelOSU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey play

Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump

MINN · Drive 1FG · 15 plays · 66 yds

Q1 15:00

Jayden Fielding kickoff for 58 yds

90.6%

0.0

Q1 15:00

Timeout Minnesota, clock 15:00

90.3%

-0.3

Q1 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Frank Bierman for 5 yds to the MINN 30

90.2%

-0.2

Q1 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 5 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST down

90.3%

+0.2

Q1 15:00

Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the MINN 36

90.2%

-0.2

Q1 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 4 yds to the MINN 40

90.1%

-0.1

Q1 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Darius Taylor for 6 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST down

89.9%

-0.2

Q1 15:00

Fame Ijeboi run for no gain to the MINN 46

89.2%

-0.8

Q1 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 25 yds to the OSU 29 for a 1ST down

89.2%

0.0

Q1 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 9 yds to the OSU 20

88.8%

-0.4

Q1 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 10 yds to the OSU 10 for a 1ST down

89.0%

+0.2

Q1 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete

88.8%

-0.2

Q1 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 1 yd to the OSU 9

88.8%

0.0

Q1 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy

88.8%

0.0

Q1 8:05

Brady Denaburg 27 yd FG GOOD

86.8%

-2.0

OSU · Drive 2MISSED FG · 10 plays · 40 yds

Q1 8:05

Brady Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

87.4%

+0.6

Q1 8:05

Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 8 yds to the OSU 33

90.5%

+3.1

Q1 8:05

Bo Jackson run for 10 yds to the OSU 43 for a 1ST down

90.5%

0.0

Q1 8:05

Bo Jackson run for 5 yds to the OSU 48

90.7%

+0.2

Q1 8:05

Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 13 yds to the MINN 39 for a 1ST down

90.8%

+0.1

Q1 8:05

Bo Jackson run for 1 yd to the MINN 38

91.3%

+0.5

Q1 8:05

Julian Sayin pass incomplete to Jeremiah Smith

91.3%

0.0

Q1 8:05

Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 3 yds to the MINN 35

91.3%

-0.1

Q1 4:44

Timeout Ohio State, clock 04:44

89.7%

-1.5

Q1 4:38

Jayden Fielding 53 yd FG MISSED

89.7%

0.0

MINN · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · 8 yds

Q1 4:38

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete

85.6%

-4.1

Q1 4:38

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jameson Geers

85.6%

0.0

Q1 4:28

Timeout Minnesota, clock 04:28

86.1%

+0.5

Q1 4:28

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 8 yds to the MINN 43

86.1%

0.0

Q1 3:41

Tom Weston punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OSU 9

85.7%

-0.4

OSU · Drive 4TD · 6 plays · 91 yds

Q1 3:41

Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 7 yds to the OSU 16

89.1%

+3.4

Q1 3:41

Bo Jackson run for 2 yds to the OSU 18

89.1%

0.0

Q1 3:41

CJ Donaldson run for 1 yd to the OSU 19 for a 1ST down

89.1%

0.0

Q1 3:41

Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 48 yds to the MINN 33 for a 1ST down

89.1%

0.0

Q1 3:41

Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 31 yds to the MINN 2 for a 1ST down

90.1%

+1.0

Q1 0:00

CJ Donaldson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

93.0%

+2.9

MINN · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds

Q2 15:00

Jayden Fielding kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

92.6%

-0.4

Q2 15:00

Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 27

91.2%

-1.4

Q2 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete

91.2%

0.0

Q2 15:00

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Drew Biber

91.2%

0.0

Q2 13:57

Tom Weston punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 20

91.1%

-0.2

OSU · Drive 6TD · 8 plays · 80 yds

Q2 13:57

Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 49 yds to the MINN 31 for a 1ST down

92.9%

+1.9

Q2 13:57

Bo Jackson run for 9 yds to the MINN 22

93.3%

+0.4

Q2 13:57

James Peoples run for 3 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST down

93.3%

0.0

Q2 13:57

Julian Sayin pass incomplete to Jeremiah Smith

93.3%

0.0

Q2 13:57

Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 11 yds to the MINN 8 for a 1ST down

93.3%

0.0

Q2 13:57

Bo Jackson run for 2 yds to the MINN 6

93.3%

0.0

Q2 13:57

Julian Sayin pass incomplete to Carnell Tate

93.3%

0.0

Q2 11:01

Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

98.0%

+4.7

MINN · Drive 7DOWNS · 7 plays · 19 yds

Q2 11:01

Jayden Fielding kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

97.9%

0.0

Q2 11:01

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Pierce Walsh for 10 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST down

96.9%

-1.0

Q2 11:01

Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the MINN 40

96.9%

0.0

Q2 11:01

Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 42

96.9%

0.0

Q2 11:01

Le'Meke Brockington run for 2 yds to the MINN 44

96.9%

0.0

Q2 8:18

Timeout Ohio State, clock 08:18

96.6%

-0.3

Q2 8:12

Darius Taylor run for no gain to the MINN 44

96.7%

+0.1

OSU · Drive 8TD · 1 play · 44 yds

Q2 8:04

Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 44 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

99.4%

+2.7

MINN · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · -6 yds

Q2 8:04

Jayden Fielding kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

99.4%

0.0

Q2 8:04

Darius Taylor run for no gain to the MINN 25

98.6%

-0.8

Q2 8:04

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jameson Geers

98.6%

0.0

Q2 8:04

Drake Lindsey sacked by Arvell Reese for a loss of 6 yards to the MINN 19

98.6%

0.0

Q2 6:35

Tom Weston punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 29

98.4%

-0.1

OSU · Drive 10PUNT · 9 plays · 17 yds

Q2 6:35

Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 4 yds to the OSU 33

99.4%

+1.0

Q2 6:35

Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 5 yds to the OSU 38

99.4%

0.0

Q2 6:35

Bo Jackson run for 6 yds to the OSU 44 for a 1ST down

99.4%

0.0

Q2 6:35

Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

99.4%

0.0

Q2 6:35

Julian Sayin pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 2 yds to the MINN 48

99.4%

0.0

Q2 3:29

Timeout Ohio State, clock 03:29

99.4%

0.0

Q2 3:29

Lincoln Kienholz run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 49

99.4%

0.0

Q2 3:29

PENALTY OSU False Start (Scott Jr.,Aaron) 5 yards from MINN49 to OSU46. NO PLAY.

99.4%

0.0

Q2 2:32

Joe McGuire punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 10

99.4%

0.0

MINN · Drive 11PUNT · 9 plays · 17 yds

Q2 2:32

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 7 yds to the MINN 17

98.4%

-1.0

Q2 2:00

Timeout Ohio State, clock 02:00

98.4%

0.0

Q2 2:00

Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 21 for a 1ST down

98.4%

0.0

Q2 2:00

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Darius Taylor

98.4%

0.0

Q2 2:00

Darius Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 19

98.4%

0.0

Q2 2:00

PENALTY MINN Delay Of Game 5 yards from MINN19 to MINN14. NO PLAY.

98.4%

0.0

Q2 2:00

Fame Ijeboi run for 13 yds to the MINN 27

98.4%

0.0

Q2 0:06

Timeout Minnesota, clock 00:06

98.4%

-0.1

Q2 0:00

Tom Weston punt for 58 yds

98.4%

0.0

OSU · Drive 12PUNT · 12 plays · 15 yds

Q3 15:00

Brady Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

98.2%

-0.1

Q3 15:00

Bo Jackson run for 1 yd to the OSU 26

99.1%

+0.9

Q3 15:00

Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 16 yds to the OSU 42 for a 1ST down

99.1%

0.0

Q3 15:00

Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 9 yds to the MINN 49

99.1%

0.0

Q3 15:00

PENALTY OSU False Start (Kacmarek,Will) 5 yards from MINN49 to OSU46. NO PLAY.

99.1%

0.0

Q3 15:00

Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 8 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST down

99.1%

0.0

Q3 15:00

Bo Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 47

99.1%

0.0

Q3 15:00

Julian Sayin run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 48

99.1%

0.0

Q3 15:00

Shotgun Sayin,Julian rush right for 7 yards gain to the MINN41 (Karmo,Emmanuel), out of bounds PENALTY OSU Holding (Hinzman,Carson) 10 yards from MINN48 to OSU42. NO PLAY.

99.1%

0.0

Q3 15:00

Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 2 yds to the OSU 40

99.1%

0.0

Q3 9:15

Joe McGuire punt for 42 yds , Koi Perich returns for 8 yds to the MINN 26

99.3%

+0.2

Q3 9:15

Joe McGuire punt for 42 yds , Koi Perich returns for no gain to the MINN 8

99.3%

+0.7

MINN · Drive 13PUNT · 4 plays · 0 yds

Q3 9:15

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Logan Loya for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 7

98.7%

-0.7

Q3 9:15

Fame Ijeboi run for 1 yd to the MINN 8

98.7%

0.0

Q3 9:15

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy

98.7%

0.0

Q3 7:31

Tom Weston punt for 48 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for no gain to the MINN 20

98.7%

-0.6

OSU · Drive 14TD · 2 plays · 20 yds

Q3 7:31

Julian Sayin pass complete to Bo Jackson for 11 yds to the MINN 9 for a 1ST down

99.3%

+0.6

Q3 7:31

Bo Jackson run for 4 yds to the MINN 5

99.3%

0.0

MINN · Drive 15PUNT · 5 plays · -1 yds

Q3 5:45

Jayden Fielding kickoff for 63 yds

99.9%

+0.5

Q3 5:45

Fame Ijeboi run for 2 yds to the MINN 27

99.7%

-0.2

Q3 5:45

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy

99.7%

0.0

Q3 5:45

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 3 yds to the MINN 24

99.7%

0.0

Q3 4:09

Tom Weston punt for 58 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 10 yds to the OSU 28

99.7%

0.0

OSU · Drive 16TD · 9 plays · 72 yds

Q3 4:09

Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 4 yds to the OSU 32

99.9%

+0.2

Q3 4:09

Isaiah West run for 3 yds to the OSU 35

99.9%

0.0

Q3 4:09

Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 5 yds to the OSU 40 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q3 4:09

Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 29 yds to the MINN 31 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q3 4:09

Bo Jackson run for 9 yds to the MINN 22

99.9%

0.0

Q3 4:09

Julian Sayin pass incomplete to Max Klare

99.9%

0.0

Q3 4:09

Julian Sayin run for 3 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q3 0:00

Bo Jackson run for 10 yds to the MINN 9 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 14:55

Jeremiah Smith 9 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)

99.9%

0.0

MINN · Drive 17MISSED FG · 11 plays · 52 yds

Q4 14:55

Jayden Fielding kickoff for 61 yds

99.9%

0.0

Q4 14:55

Ohio State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sonny Styles) to the MINN 39 for a 1ST down

99.7%

-0.2

Q4 14:55

Fame Ijeboi run for 12 yds to the OSU 49 for a 1ST down

99.7%

0.0

Q4 14:55

Fame Ijeboi run for 8 yds to the OSU 41

99.7%

0.0

Q4 14:55

Cam Davis run for 5 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST down

99.7%

0.0

Q4 14:55

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 7 yds to the OSU 29

99.7%

0.0

Q4 14:55

Fame Ijeboi run for 6 yds to the OSU 23 for a 1ST down

99.7%

0.0

Q4 14:55

Fame Ijeboi run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 24

99.7%

0.0

Q4 14:55

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jameson Geers

99.7%

0.0

Q4 14:55

Drake Lindsey pass complete to Drew Biber for 1 yd to the OSU 23

99.7%

0.0

Q4 9:26

Brady Denaburg 41 yd FG MISSED

99.7%

0.0

OSU · Drive 18TD · 8 plays · 77 yds

Q4 9:26

James Peoples run for 13 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST down

99.9%

+0.2

Q4 9:26

Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Quincy Porter for 15 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 9:26

James Peoples run for 33 yds to the MINN 16 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 9:26

James Peoples run for 3 yds to the MINN 13

99.9%

0.0

Q4 9:26

James Peoples run for 6 yds to the MINN 7

99.9%

0.0

Q4 9:26

James Peoples run for 2 yds to the MINN 5 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 9:26

James Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 6

99.9%

0.0

Q4 3:49

Lincoln Kienholz 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)

99.9%

0.0

MINN · Drive 19PUNT · 9 plays · 15 yds

Q4 3:49

Jackson Courville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

99.9%

0.0

Q4 3:49

Fame Ijeboi run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 24

99.8%

-0.1

Q4 3:49

Fame Ijeboi run for 11 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST down

99.8%

0.0

Q4 3:49

Fame Ijeboi run for no gain to the MINN 35

99.8%

0.0

Q4 2:00

Timeout Ohio State, clock 02:00

99.8%

0.0

Q4 2:00

Fame Ijeboi run for 2 yds to the MINN 37

99.8%

0.0

Q4 2:00

Cam Davis run for 3 yds to the MINN 40

99.8%

0.0

Q4 0:23

Timeout Minnesota, clock 00:23

99.8%

0.0

Q4 0:15

Tom Weston punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Phillip Bell at the OSU 21

99.8%

0.0

OSU · Drive 20END OF GAME · 1 play · -2 yds

Q4 0:00

L. Kienholz takes a knee

99.9%

+0.1

Biggest swings

TD · Q2 11:01

Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

+4.7

KEY PLAY · Q1 4:38

Drake Lindsey pass incomplete

-4.1

KEY PLAY · Q1 3:41

Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 7 yds to the OSU 16

+3.4