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OSU

Ohio State 34 at Illinois 16

ILL
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:22 · Joe McGuire punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense−5.1Pregame prior−28.7Score differential−2.5Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:48: Julian Sayin pass complete to Bo Jackson for 17 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:05: David Olano 24 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +5.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:06: Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +6.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:08: CJ Donaldson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:25: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ILL win probability +1.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 9:35OSU 4th & 2 at ILL 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:12ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:22OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:10ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.0%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:22ILL 4th & 7 at OSU 48, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:43OSU 4th & 6 at ILL 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    77.9%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:05ILL 4th & 6 at OSU 6, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:30OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:06ILL 4th & 1 at OSU 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−6.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:58OSU 4th & 1 at ILL 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.1%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−3.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−11.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:15ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:15ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:32OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:59ILL 4th & 1 at OSU 21, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:42OSU 4th & 6 at ILL 41, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:05ILL 4th & 6 at OSU 25, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 3:40OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:48OSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:06ILL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:08OSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:25OSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:25ILL Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 5:1585% → 82%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
15.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 11 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
15.7%
Bo Jackson run for 2 yds to the OSU 38Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
15.9%
Julian Sayin pass incomplete to Carnell TateSimilar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+18
16.0%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 18 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
16.1%
Bo Jackson run for no gain to the ILL 44Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
16.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 11 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
16.5%
Julian Sayin pass incomplete to Carnell TateSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+17
16.6%
Bo Jackson run for 17 yds to the ILL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
16.9%
Bo Jackson run for 3 yds to the ILL 13Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
17.0%
Bo Jackson run for 3 yds to the ILL 10Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+2
17.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 2 yds to the ILL 8Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+26
17.8%
Jayden Fielding 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2INT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3418% → 19%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Collin DixonSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.7%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 7 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
17.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 6 yds to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
18.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 7 yds to the ILL 45Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-2
18.9%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 43Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-15
19.0%
Luke Altmyer pass intercepted Payton Pierce return for 15 yds to the ILL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 3:1082% → 83%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
18.3%
CJ Donaldson run for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+10
18.4%
CJ Donaldson run for 10 yds to the ILL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
18.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 13 yds to the ILL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
18.9%
James Peoples run for 3 yds to the ILL 4Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
19.1%
CJ Donaldson run for 3 yds to the ILL 1Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.3%
CJ Donaldson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:1317% → 17%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
16.9%
Aidan Laughery run for 16 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
17.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Justin BowickSimilar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
17.1%
Aidan Laughery run for no gain to the ILL 36Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
17.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
16.9%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4782% → 82%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
17.6%
Julian Sayin pass incomplete to Jeremiah SmithSimilar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
17.8%
James Peoples run for 1 yd to the OSU 28Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+11
18.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 11 yds to the OSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
17.3%
(00:56) Shotgun Sayin,Julian pass complete short middle to Klare,Max caught at OSU45, for 0 yards to the OSU39 (Hood,Malachi; Rosiek,Dylan) PENALTY OSU Illegal Forward Pass (Klare,Max) 5 yards from OSU39 to OSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+11
18.2%
Bo Jackson run for 11 yds to the OSU 45Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+32
17.6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 32 yds to the ILL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
17.9%
Joe McGuire punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 22 yds · 4:5617% → 18%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
17.4%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short middle to Dixon,Collin thrown to ILL26, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Igbinosun,Davison) 10 yards from ILL16 to ILL26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
17.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 8 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
17.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
17.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 8 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
18.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hudson ClementSimilar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
17.7%
Jordan Anderson run for 1 yd to the ILL 48Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+1
17.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the ILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
18.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Tanner ArkinSimilar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
18.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the OSU 48Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+9
18.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 9 yds to the OSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 7
OPP 48
-14
17.8%
Keelan Crimmins run for a loss of 14 yards to the ILL 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:2882% → 84%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
17.9%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 10 yds to the ILL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
17.8%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 11 yds to the ILL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
17.0%
Bo Jackson run for 4 yds to the ILL 13Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
16.7%
Julian Sayin run for no gain to the ILL 13Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
17.0%
Julian Sayin pass incomplete to Carnell TateSimilar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
16.1%
Jayden Fielding 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.9%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 1 yd to the ILL 26 Ca'Lil Valentine fumbled, recovered by OSU Kayden McDonaldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:4085% → 93%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
15.4%
Bo Jackson run for no gain to the ILL 26Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
15.2%
Bo Jackson run for 4 yds to the ILL 22Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+7
15.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 7 yds to the ILL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
15.0%
James Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 17Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+17
7.3%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Bo Jackson for 17 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10FG
17 plays · 69 yds · 2:4310% → 19%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
10.0%
(03:48) PENALTY ILL False Start (Kreutz,Josh) 5 yards from ILL25 to ILL20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+17
9.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 17 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
10.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 15 yds to the OSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
10.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 8 yds to the OSU 40Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+9
10.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 9 yds to the OSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
10.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jordan Anderson for 6 yds to the OSU 25Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
11.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 5 yds to the OSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
13.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for 4 yds to the OSU 16Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
11.3%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Caden Curry for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 4Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
11.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Aidan Laughery for 3 yds to the OSU 1Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
10.9%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Abney,Christian) 5 yards from OSU01 to OSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
13.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Justin BowickSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
18.8%
David Olano 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:2290% → 90%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
9.6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 2 yds to the OSU 27Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
9.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 4 yds to the OSU 31Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
9.9%
Julian Sayin pass incomplete to Max KlareSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
10.0%
PENALTY OSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from OSU31 to OSU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
9.8%
Joe McGuire punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ILL 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:2418% → 18%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
18.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jordan Anderson for 2 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
18.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hudson ClementSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-8
17.6%
Luke Altmyer sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4712% → 19%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.2%
Aidan Laughery run for 2 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
11.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 13 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
12.8%
Aidan Laughery run for 23 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
13.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Collin DixonSimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
13.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+17
13.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 17 yds to the OSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
13.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 9 yds to the OSU 11Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+2
13.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the OSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
13.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the OSU 7Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
13.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 6 yds to the OSU 1Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
13.0%
Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the OSU 1Similar
Q3 10:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.1%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD
20 plays · 63 yds · 7:4782% → 95%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
18.1%
CJ Donaldson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 36Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+22
18.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Max Klare for 22 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
17.7%
CJ Donaldson run for 2 yds to the ILL 40Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
17.8%
Bo Jackson run for 3 yds to the ILL 37Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+4
17.3%
Illinois Penalty, Defensive Offside (Gabe Jacas) to the ILL 33Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+7
16.6%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 7 yds to the ILL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
16.0%
Jeremiah Smith run for 3 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+8
15.3%
CJ Donaldson run for 8 yds to the ILL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
15.2%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Bo Jackson for 3 yds to the ILL 12Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
14.4%
James Peoples run for 2 yds to the ILL 10Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+4
14.5%
Julian Sayin pass complete to CJ Donaldson for 4 yds to the ILL 6Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+3
16.2%
Julian Sayin run for 3 yds to the ILL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
13.9%
CJ Donaldson run for 2 yds to the ILL 1Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
14.1%
CJ Donaldson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 2Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.9%
CJ Donaldson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:1510% → 10%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
9.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Aidan Laughery for no gain to the ILL 30Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-6
9.5%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Jermaine Mathews Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the ILL 24 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by OSU Caden Curry , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:0396% → 99%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
4.5%
Julian Sayin pass incomplete to Bo JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
4.7%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Carnell Tate for 8 yds to the ILL 16Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+4
4.5%
CJ Donaldson run for 4 yds to the ILL 12 for a 1ST down Illinois Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Yards) to the ILL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
4.2%
CJ Donaldson run for 4 yds to the ILL 8Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+5
4.2%
CJ Donaldson run for 5 yds to the ILL 3Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+1
4.0%
Nate Roberts run for 1 yd to the ILL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 2 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:592% → 2%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
2.0%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the ILL 17Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+4
2.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Aidan Laughery for 4 yds to the ILL 21Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+8
1.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 8 yds to the ILL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
1.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hudson Clement for no gain to the ILL 29Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
1.8%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Kreutz,Josh) 5 yards from ILL29 to ILL24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+6
1.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 6 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
1.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
1.7%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 45 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for no gain to the OSU 23Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
1.7%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 45 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for no gain to the OSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
1.1%
Julian Sayin pass incomplete to Max KlareSimilar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
1.1%
James Peoples run for 3 yds to the OSU 26Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+3
1.1%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 3 yds to the OSU 29Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 4
OWN 29
-5
1.0%
PENALTY OSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from OSU29 to OSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
1.0%
Joe McGuire punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:502% → 3%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
1.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 17 yds to the OSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
1.5%
Aidan Laughery run for 6 yds to the OSU 38Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
1.3%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the OSU 37Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+7
1.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 7 yds to the OSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
1.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Aidan Laughery for 5 yds to the OSU 25Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
1.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jordan Anderson for 4 yds to the OSU 21Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
1.1%
Jordan Anderson run for no gain to the OSU 21Similar
Q4 4:59
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
1.0%
Jordan Anderson run for 2 yds to the OSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
1.1%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short left to Bowick,Justin thrown to OSU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Mathews Jr.,Jermaine) 15 yards from OSU19 to OSU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
0.9%
Isaiah West run for 2 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-1
0.9%
Isaiah West run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 44Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+3
0.8%
Isaiah West run for 3 yds to the ILL 41Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
1.1%
Joe McGuire punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 1:262% → 1%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
1.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 19Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+17
1.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 17 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
0.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Justin Bowick for 15 yds to the OSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
0.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 20 yds to the OSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
0.9%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Arvell Reese for a loss of 10 yards to the OSU 39Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 20
OPP 39
+14
0.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Cole Rusk for 14 yds to the OSU 25Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
0.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 6
OPP 25
0
0.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 1:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.7%
J. Sayin takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
0.7%
J. Sayin takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:08
CJ Donaldson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q2 3:48
Julian Sayin pass complete to Bo Jackson for 17 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q3 10:06
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com