Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 20 at Ohio State 41

OSU
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Ohio Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+3.2OSU 98.4%C.J. Stroud pass complete to GarrettWilson for 12 yds for a TD (NoahRuggles KICK)AWAY 20 - HOME 34 · Q4 3:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:07 · C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Pregame prior+3.7Home team on offense+29.5Score differential+12.6Garbage-time factor+14.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:12: TreVeyon Henderson run for 48 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:00: Davis Brin pass complete to Cannon Montgomery for 21 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +9.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:01: TreVeyon Henderson run for 52 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:07: Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 22 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +7.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:07: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 12:10OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:40TLSA 4th & 1 at OSU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    63% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:57OSU 4th & 4 at TLSA 26, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:47TLSA 4th & 4 at OSU 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.2%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:48TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:31TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:47OSU 4th & 7 at TLSA 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:58TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:00OSU 4th & 12 at OSU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:00TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:30OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:49TLSA 4th & 24 at TLSA 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:44OSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:12OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:00TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:01OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:07TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:07OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:50OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3395% → 95%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
95.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 9 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
95.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OhSt 33Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
95.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 5 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
95.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
94.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
94.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2FG
17 plays · 81 yds · 6:255% → 7%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
94.8%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
94.7%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+11
94.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 11 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
94.5%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
94.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Hall for 12 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
94.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Deneric Prince for 18 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.1%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
94.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 8 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+3
93.9%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
93.6%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the OhSt 30Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
93.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+18
93.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 18 yds to the OhSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
93.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the OhSt 11Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+8
93.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 8 yds to the OhSt 3Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
93.2%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the OhSt 3Similar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+22
92.8%
Zack Long 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:3593% → 92%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
92.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+20
92.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 20 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
92.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
92.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
92.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
92.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
92.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+3
92.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32 TreVeyon Henderson fumbled, recovered by OhSt Nicholas Petit-Frere for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
92.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
92.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-1
91.6%
Master Teague III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
91.9%
Noah Ruggles 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:539% → 12%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
90.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
90.9%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
91.1%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Shamari BrooksSimilar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+13
91.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 13 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
90.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+16
90.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 16 yds to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
89.7%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
89.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+10
89.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 10 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
88.9%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the OhSt 18Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+5
88.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 5 yds to the OhSt 13Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
88.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for no gain to the OhSt 13Similar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
88.0%
Zack Long 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:3689% → 91%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
88.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 16 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
89.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
89.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 18 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
88.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4010% → 10%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
89.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 18 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
89.5%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+12
89.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
89.3%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+40
89.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 55 yds, downed at the OHIOST 8 TULSA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the OhSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5990% → 90%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
89.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 8 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-5
90.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 40Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
89.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 7 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
90.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
89.9%
C.J. Stroud pass intercepted Travon Fuller return for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0112% → 12%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
88.3%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
88.3%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+10
88.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 10 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
88.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:1388% → 90%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
88.4%
Master Teague III run for 9 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+17
88.8%
Master Teague III run for 17 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
89.2%
Master Teague III run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 6
50
+7
89.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Master Teague III for 7 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
89.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
89.1%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
89.0%
Master Teague III run for no gain to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
88.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
90.1%
Noah Ruggles 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:4010% → 11%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+31
89.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 31 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
87.7%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OhSt 49Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 20
OPP 49
0
88.8%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 20
OPP 49
-19
88.9%
Davis Brin pass intercepted Ronnie Hickman return for 19 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
90.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5310% → 10%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.7%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
89.7%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+7
90.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 7 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 13:58
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
90.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:4090% → 95%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
89.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
89.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+16
89.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 16 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
90.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+48
94.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 48 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 0 yds · 2:346% → 6%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
93.2%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+17
93.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 17 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
93.2%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+15
93.4%
Brin, Davis pass complete to Santana, JuanCarlos for 13 yards to the OHIOST38, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference 15 yards to the OHIOST36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
92.9%
TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 24
50
0
93.3%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 24
50
-10
93.6%
Davis Brin sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the OHIOST 40 TULSA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 34
OWN 40
-10
93.7%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:4894% → 94%
Q3 8:48
2ND & 62
OWN 18
+1
94.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 19Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+3
94.3%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
94.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 7 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+5
94.8%
Master Teague III run for 5 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
94.8%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Cullen Wick for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 27Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 17
OWN 27
0
94.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 17
OWN 27
+5
94.4%
Master Teague III run for 5 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
94.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 49 yds, downed at the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:357% → 6%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
93.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 22 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
92.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 1
50
-8
92.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the OHIOST 48 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
93.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 5 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
93.3%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
93.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:1495% → 96%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+39
94.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 54 yds to the OHIOST 35 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
50
0
95.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 10
50
-5
95.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 45Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+15
95.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 15 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
95.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 15
OPP 45
-7
96.1%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Kendarin Ray for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 48 C.J. Stroud fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Anthony Goodlow , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:307% → 17%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
93.0%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
93.2%
Deneric Prince run for 8 yds to the OhSt 40 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 12
50
+30
93.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 15 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the OhSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
92.4%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 21Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+21
83.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Cannon Montgomery for 21 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:4490% → 96%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
89.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+17
90.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 17 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
96.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 52 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:445% → 15%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+38
94.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 38 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
93.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+5
93.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the OhSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
92.9%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
93.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the OhSt 17Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-5
93.4%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 22Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+22
85.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 22 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:3290% → 89%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
90.0%
Stroud, C.J. pass complete to Olave, Chris for 47 yards to the TULSA20, PENALTY OHIOST face mask 15 yards to the OHIOST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 25
OWN 18
+14
89.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 14 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
89.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+5
89.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 5 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
89.4%
Jesse Mirco punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:2514% → 11%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
86.2%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+7
85.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Hall for 7 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
85.2%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+24
86.2%
Deneric Prince run for 24 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
82.6%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
83.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-17
84.5%
Davis Brin sacked by Tyleik Williams for a loss of 17 yards to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 24
OWN 40
+20
89.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for 20 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:3491% → 98%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+31
90.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 31 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
92.7%
Master Teague III run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
93.0%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+4
93.0%
Master Teague III run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 1
OPP 14
0
94.1%
Master Teague III run for no gain to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
94.2%
Master Teague III run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
94.8%
Master Teague III run for no gain to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
98.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24INT TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:113% → 1%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
97.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-61
99.5%
Davis Brin pass intercepted for a TD Cameron Martinez return for 61 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 43 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+27
99.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 27 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
99.5%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+17
99.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 17 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+11
99.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 11 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
99.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 8 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-10
99.4%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OhSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:00
Davis Brin pass complete to Cannon Montgomery for 21 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q4 12:07
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 22 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q3 0:01
TreVeyon Henderson run for 52 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com