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PSU

Penn State 24 at Ohio State 33

OSU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:22 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:48: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 38 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:26: Jahan Dotson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +12.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:35: TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:10: Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 7:12: Noah Ruggles 25 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +9.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:56OSU 4th & 7 at PSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.4%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:02OSU 4th & 13 at PSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:58PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:54OSU 4th & 3 at PSU 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:23PSU 4th & 5 at OSU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−0.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:14OSU 4th & 9 at PSU 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:26PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00PSU 4th & 6 at OSU 29, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:42OSU 4th & 6 at PSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−9.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:17PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−2.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:51OSU 4th & 3 at PSU 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−1.0
    85% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−13.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:34OSU 4th & 1 at PSU 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−4.9
    77% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−19.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:12OSU 4th & 3 at PSU 8, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%−2.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−19.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:55PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 30, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:41OSU 4th & 1 at PSU 9, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%−2.0
    89% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−6.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:19PSU 4th & 10 at OSU 31, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.3%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:08PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:48OSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:26PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:35OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:10PSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2589% → 88%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 11 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
88.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 37Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
88.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 6 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+3
88.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 3 yds Jeremy Ruckert fumbled, forced by Ji'Ayir Brown, recovered by PnSt Ji'Ayir BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
88.1%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 47 Noah Cain fumbled, forced by Marcus Williamson, recovered by OhSt Haskell GarrettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0488% → 88%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.2%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
88.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 12 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
88.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+7
87.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 7 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
87.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
87.6%
Jesse Mirco punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 4:3213% → 17%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
87.4%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
87.3%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+2
87.3%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
87.1%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+8
86.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 8 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
86.6%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
86.5%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-1
86.4%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+16
86.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 16 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+32
85.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 32 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
85.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 11 yds to the OhSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 5 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 3:5384% → 83%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
83.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 26Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
83.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 11 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
83.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+25
83.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 10 yds to the OHIOST 49 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Joey Porter Jr.) to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
83.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 19 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
83.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-5
83.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Chris Olave) to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
82.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 13
OPP 18
0
82.3%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+35
83.3%
Noah Ruggles 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5817% → 17%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.2%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
83.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
83.3%
Jordan Stout punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 3:5383% → 81%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
82.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 7 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+1
82.7%
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd to the OhSt 26Similar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 2
OWN 26
-5
82.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Luke Wypler) to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-5
82.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 16Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+15
81.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 15 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
82.2%
Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
82.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+11
81.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 11 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
82.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-5
82.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Luke Wypler) to the OhSt 46Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+9
81.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 9 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-1
82.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
81.4%
Jesse Mirco punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:1720% → 22%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+25
80.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 25 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
79.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 3 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
78.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone LeeSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+13
79.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
78.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
77.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
77.9%
Clifford, Sean pass complete to Lambert-Smith, KeAndre for 13 yards to the OHIOST30, PENALTY PENNST illegal touching 0 yards to the OHIOST43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 5
OPP 43
-8
78.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by J.T. Tuimoloau for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0181% → 78%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
80.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 11
50
0
79.9%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 11
50
+2
79.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 2 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
78.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:3022% → 23%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
77.9%
Sean Clifford run for 10 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
77.2%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-1
76.9%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 21Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-7
76.9%
Sean Clifford sacked by Lathan Ransom for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 17
OWN 14
0
77.2%
Jordan Stout punt for 55 yds, downed at the OhSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:3377% → 84%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
76.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
76.6%
Stroud, C.J. pass incomplete to Wilson, Garrett, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Castro-Fields, Tariq) 15 yards to the OHIOST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
77.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 9 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
78.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+7
77.8%
Garrett Wilson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
83.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 38 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:1617% → 13%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
82.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 18 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
81.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 10 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
80.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 10 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+57
87.1%
Sean Clifford sacked by Tyreke Smith for a loss of 6 yards Sean Clifford fumbled, recovered by OhSt Jerron Cage , return for 0 yards , return for 57 yds (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13END OF HALF
13 plays · 46 yds · 2:1212% → 16%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.4%
Noah Cain run for 11 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
87.8%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
87.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 8 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
86.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 6 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
86.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Noah CainSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+16
87.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 16 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
85.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for no gain to the OhSt 33Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
85.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+4
86.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 4 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
84.5%
Jordan Stout 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2716% → 32%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.3%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Steele Chambers) to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
83.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 1 yd to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
83.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+28
83.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 13 yds to the OHIOST 47 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Zach Harrison) to the OhSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
81.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
80.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+13
81.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
80.6%
John Lovett run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 17Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+8
80.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 8 yds to the OhSt 9Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+5
81.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the OhSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
80.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 2 yds to the OhSt 2Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.6%
Jahan Dotson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:3374% → 78%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
74.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 58 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
77.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+5
77.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
77.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
77.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Curtis Jacobs) to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
77.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 2Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
74.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (TreVeyon Henderson) to the PnSt 6Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
78.3%
Noah Ruggles 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0824% → 22%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
76.1%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
76.0%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Lambert-Smith, KeAndre, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference 9 yards to the PENNST32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
75.2%
Noah Cain run for no gain to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
75.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-1
76.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by Antwuan Jackson and Palaie Gaoteote IV for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+39
77.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 39 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:2576% → 89%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+68
76.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 68 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2013% → 30%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+22
87.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 22 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
85.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 18 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
84.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 14 yds to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
84.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the OhSt 7Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 2
OPP 7
0
84.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+3
85.2%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the OhSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
85.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q3 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.4%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the OhSt 1Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:1075% → 78%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
74.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 13 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
75.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+24
79.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 24 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
81.2%
Stroud, C.J. pass incomplete to Wilson, Garrett, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Porter Jr., Joey) 15 yards to the PENNST20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
81.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
81.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to TreVeyon HendersonSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+4
79.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 4 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 3
OPP 13
0
77.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:1525% → 26%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
74.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+7
74.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 7 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
74.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-25
74.1%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Cameron Brown return for 25 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:3881% → 88%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
81.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+3
81.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
79.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 19Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+4
78.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
81.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+9
80.8%
Stroud, C.J. pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the PENNST19 (Luketa, Jesse), PENALTY PENNST holding (Porter Jr., Joey) 9 yards to the PENNST7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 2
OPP 7
-1
80.8%
Miyan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
79.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
88.4%
Noah Ruggles 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0020% → 17%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
78.8%
John Lovett run for no gain to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
80.0%
Clifford, Sean pass complete to Lovett, John for 70 yards to the OHIOST0, PENALTY PENNST illegal touching (Lovett, John) 0 yards to the PENNST30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
82.6%
Jordan Stout punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the OhSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 2:5489% → 95%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
88.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+7
89.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 7 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
90.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 22 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
91.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Garrett Wilson) to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+30
91.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 30 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
93.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Thayer Munford) to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+2
93.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+12
94.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 12 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
95.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+26
95.2%
Noah Ruggles 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24MISSED FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 1:113% → 4%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
96.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 14 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
96.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+23
96.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 23 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
95.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
96.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
96.3%
Jordan Stout 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:4097% → 96%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 29Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-1
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:10
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q3 10:26
Jahan Dotson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q3 3:35
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com