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OSU

Ohio State 27 at Michigan 42

MICH
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:05 · Jesse Mirco punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Home team on offense+0.8Pregame prior−8.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:51: Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +10.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:50: Hassan Haskins run for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +17.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:49: Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +9.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:05: TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:45: C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 10 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 9:25OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:36OSU 4th & 14 at MICH 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:48MICH 4th & 7 at OSU 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:14OSU 4th & 9 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:51MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:26MICH 4th & 1 at OSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−3.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:09OSU 4th & 3 at MICH 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.8
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:05OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:19OSU 4th & 12 at OSU 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−2.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:53OSU 4th & 4 at MICH 15, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:46OSU 4th & 7 at MICH 24, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:45OSU 4th & 5 at MICH 10, down 15
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:58OSU 4th & 18 at OSU 33, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:12MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:12OSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:51MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:50MICH Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:49MICH Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:05OSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:14MICH Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:45OSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.5 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:17MICH Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4333% → 37%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
33.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 5 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+16
33.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 16 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
33.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Erick All) to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+8
33.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
34.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 6 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
34.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
34.7%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Luke SchoonmakerSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
34.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 9 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+17
34.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 17 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
36.9%
A.J. Henning run for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4064% → 63%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
36.4%
C.J. Stroud run for 1 yd to the OhSt 5 C.J. Stroud fumbled, recovered by OhSt C.J. StroudSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
36.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 9
OWN 5
0
37.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 9
OWN 5
+17
37.4%
Jesse Mirco punt for 51 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 17 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3INT
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:2838% → 38%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
37.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 24 yds to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-20
37.8%
Cade McNamara pass intercepted Bryson Shaw return for 20 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 5:0163% → 61%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
37.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+10
37.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 10 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
38.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 9 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+1
37.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
38.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+28
38.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 28 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
38.0%
Miyan Williams run for 9 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+7
38.3%
Miyan Williams run for 7 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
38.7%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the Mich 3Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
39.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
39.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 8Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
39.8%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 14Similar
Q1 3:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
39.2%
Noah Ruggles 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:4039% → 41%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
39.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 5 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
39.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 8 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
40.8%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
41.4%
J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
42.0%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
42.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for no gain to the OhSt 45Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
41.8%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+27
40.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the OhSt 3 MICHIGAN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the OhSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:2659% → 58%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
40.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-5
41.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Dawand Jones) to the OhSt 16Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+8
41.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 8 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+25
41.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 25 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
39.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
40.2%
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 9
50
0
41.0%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris Olave, broken up by David OjaboSimilar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 9
50
0
42.1%
Jesse Mirco punt for 40 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 10 A.J. Henning fumbled, recovered by Mich A.J. HenningSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1842% → 42%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
42.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+1
42.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 13Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
42.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+5
41.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 48 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 5 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:3359% → 65%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
41.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 10 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
41.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+23
41.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 23 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
34.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 25 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 5:1137% → 52%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
37.3%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Hassan Haskins, broken up by Zach HarrisonSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
37.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 7 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+11
36.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 11 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
37.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
39.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
39.3%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
39.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 9 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
39.4%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
38.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
40.5%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+37
40.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 37 yds to the OhSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
41.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the OhSt 1Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 3:3353% → 56%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
47.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 14 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
45.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
44.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 2 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+8
45.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 8 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
44.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 9 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 1
OPP 39
-5
43.8%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Thayer Munford) to the Mich 44Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
44.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett Wilson, broken up by DJ TurnerSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+9
45.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 9 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
43.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 15 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
43.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
43.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+4
46.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 4 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
44.2%
Noah Ruggles 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
48.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4952% → 49%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
47.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
48.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
50.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 1:0950% → 68%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
50.2%
Blake Corum run for 13 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+55
50.9%
Blake Corum run for 55 yds to the OhSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
68.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:2637% → 32%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
63.5%
Stroud, C.J. pass complete to Ruckert, Jeremy for 6 yards to the OHIOST31, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Petit-Frere, Nicholas) 10 yards to the OHIOST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+11
64.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 11 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
64.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 16 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
63.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 5 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-5
62.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Nicholas Petit-Frere) to the OhSt 42Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
64.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OhSt 43Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-3
65.4%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
68.0%
Jesse Mirco punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:2568% → 85%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
68.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 6 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+31
69.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 31 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+34
72.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 34 yds to the OhSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
75.8%
J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the OhSt 1Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cameron Brown) to the OhSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD
19 plays · 82 yds · 6:3418% → 25%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
82.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 12 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
81.5%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
82.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 7 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+11
82.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 11 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
82.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 6 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-5
81.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Dawand Jones) to the OhSt 49Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+4
83.1%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+9
84.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 9 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
85.7%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 15
OPP 43
-4
86.5%
Miyan Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+26
87.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 26 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
85.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 5 yds to the Mich 16Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
85.6%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Miyan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+1
86.8%
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+10
87.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 10 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jeremy RuckertSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
86.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the Mich 1Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:3982% → 95%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.1%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
82.5%
Cade McNamara run for 9 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
83.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Steele Chambers) to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
84.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 8 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+6
85.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
85.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 6 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
86.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+15
86.0%
McNamara, Cade pass incomplete to Wilson, Roman, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Burke, Denzel) 15 yards to the OHIOST14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
86.8%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the OhSt 5Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+3
87.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the OhSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:237% → 15%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
93.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 23Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+39
93.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 39 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
93.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
92.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 5 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
93.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
92.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-4
93.4%
C.J. Stroud run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 31 C.J. Stroud fumbled, recovered by OhSt C.J. StroudSimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+7
94.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 7 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+9
94.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 9 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
92.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-10
92.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nicholas Petit-Frere) to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 20
OPP 25
0
93.6%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 20
OPP 25
+15
94.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 15 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+10
85.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 10 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:5593% → 98%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
93.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 15 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
93.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+11
94.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 11 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
95.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 27 yds to the OhSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:143% → 2%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 16 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
97.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 5 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
97.4%
C.J. Stroud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-13
97.5%
C.J. Stroud sacked by David Ojabo for a loss of 13 yards to the OhSt 33Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 18
OWN 33
+12
97.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 12 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3199% → 99%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:50
Hassan Haskins run for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
+17.2
TD · Q4 14:05
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q2 3:51
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
+10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com