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OSU

Ohio State 34 at Notre Dame 23

ND
2024 · College Football Playoff National Championship · Jan 20, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 17 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:15: Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:27: Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:46: Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:03: Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 34 yds for a TD (Riley Leonard pass to Jeremiyah Love for Two-Point Conversion) — ND win probability +11.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:15: Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 30 yds for a TD (Jordan Faison pass to Beaux Collins for Two-Point Conversion) — ND win probability +13.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 6OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:37ND 4th & 1 at OSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:55ND 4th & 1 at OSU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.4%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:21ND 4th & 15 at ND 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:53ND 4th & 9 at ND 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:18ND 4th & 2 at ND 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:52OSU 4th & 16 at ND 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:26ND 4th & 5 at OSU 33, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:25OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 39, up 16
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:26OSU 4th & 15 at ND 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−4.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 3OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:15ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:10OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:15OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:27OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:46OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:03ND Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:15ND Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 9:4028% → 37%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
27.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 24Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
28.1%
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
28.3%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.7%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Kris MitchellSimilar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
28.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 10 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
29.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 7 yds to the OSU 47Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
29.6%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the OSU 45Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
29.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the OSU 45Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
30.1%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the OSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
30.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Raridon for 14 yds to the OSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
31.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Kris MitchellSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
31.3%
Jadarian Price run for 9 yds to the OSU 19Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
31.4%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the OSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
31.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the OSU 12Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
32.3%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the OSU 7Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
32.4%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the OSU 5Similar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+4
32.4%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the OSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.9%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:0164% → 68%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OSU 30Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
36.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OSU 30Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
36.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 7 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
37.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 4 yds to the OSU 41Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+19
36.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 19 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
36.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 15 yds to the ND 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
36.6%
Jeremiah Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 30Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+12
37.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 12 yds to the ND 18Similar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+5
38.2%
Will Howard run for 5 yds to the ND 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
37.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the ND 8Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
32.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 8 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:4536% → 35%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Beaux CollinsSimilar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
35.5%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Beaux Collins) to the ND 20Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-10
35.5%
Leonard, Riley pass complete to Collins, Beaux for 13 yards to the NOTREDAME33, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Jagusah, Charles) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+2
35.6%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 12Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+8
35.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 8 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+56
35.1%
James Rendell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Caleb Downs at the OSU 34 Ohio State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 6:0065% → 73%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
35.4%
Emeka Egbuka run for 13 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
35.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 15 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
34.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
34.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 3 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+11
34.7%
Will Howard run for 11 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
34.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 12 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
34.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the ND 18Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+6
33.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 6 yds to the ND 12Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
34.8%
Will Howard run for 3 yds to the ND 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
26.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1730% → 29%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.7%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
30.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Kris MitchellSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-4
29.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NDSimilar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-3
28.7%
James Rendell punt for 51 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 4:2171% → 86%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
29.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 2 yds to the OSU 22Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
29.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OSU 23Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+19
29.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 19 yds to the OSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
26.4%
Will Howard sacked by Joshua Burnham for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 41Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+4
26.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OSU 45Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+20
26.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 20 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
24.9%
Will Howard sacked by Joshua Burnham for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 38Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+15
24.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 15 yds to the ND 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
23.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to TreVeyon HendersonSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
24.2%
Will Howard run for 11 yds to the ND 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
23.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the ND 6Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
14.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
19.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 7 yds to the ND 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1081% → 93%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Jeremiah SmithSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+70
18.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 70 yds to the ND 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
16.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the ND 4Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
15.8%
Will Howard run for 3 yds to the ND 1Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2412% → 11%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.7%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jaden GreathouseSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
11.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 6 yds to the ND 33Similar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
11.1%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Jordan FaisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:2394% → 96%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
5.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+7
5.6%
Will Howard run for 7 yds to the ND 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
5.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the ND 19Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-10
5.1%
Howard, Will pass complete to Egbuka, Emeka for 5 yards to the NOTREDAME14, PENALTY OSU holding (Fryar, Josh) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+1
5.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the ND 28Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 16
OPP 28
0
5.0%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Carnell TateSimilar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+46
3.8%
Jayden Fielding 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:446% → 16%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.5%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
5.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 6 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
5.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 10 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
5.1%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 48Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-11
4.9%
Riley Leonard sacked by Sonny Styles for a loss of 11 yards to the ND 37Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 19
OWN 37
+15
4.4%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Evans, Mitchell, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Igbinosun, Davison) 15 yards to the OSU48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
4.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Raridon for 6 yds to the OSU 42Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
4.9%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the OSU 39Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+5
4.8%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the OSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
4.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
16.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 34 yds for a TD (Riley Leonard pass to Jeremiyah Love for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:1491% → 94%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 7 yds to the OSU 32Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
9.0%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the OSU 34Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
8.4%
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
6.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the OSU 38Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
6.2%
Howard, Will pass incomplete to Henderson, TreVeyon, PENALTY NOTREDAME roughing passer (Oben, RJ) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OSU.Similar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
6.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+24
5.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 24 yds Emeka Egbuka fumbled, forced by Drayk Bowen, recovered by ND Kyngstonn Viliamu-AsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13MISSED FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:1312% → 8%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
12.0%
Jordan Faison run for 1 yd to the ND 22Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
11.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+30
11.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 30 yds to the OSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
12.6%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Collins, Beaux, PENALTY OSU holding (Igbinosun, Davison) 10 yards to the OSU38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
12.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for a loss of 4 yards to the OSU 42Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+2
12.2%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the OSU 40Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+7
11.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 7 yds to the OSU 33Similar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+11
10.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 11 yds to the OSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
11.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 6 yds to the OSU 16Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+8
9.9%
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Harrison, Jayden, PENALTY OSU holding (Hancock, Jordan) 8 yards to the OSU8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
9.9%
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 9Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
8.7%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Mitchell EvansSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
8.2%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jaden GreathouseSimilar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 0
OPP 9
+27
8.2%
Mitch Jeter 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:5996% → 97%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
4.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the OSU 21Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
4.2%
Will Howard run for 11 yds to the OSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
4.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the OSU 35Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
3.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the OSU 39Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
3.5%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Jeremiah SmithSimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+10
3.4%
Joe McGuire punt for 51 yds , Max Hurleman returns for 10 yds to the ND 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:055% → 18%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
5.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 12 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
5.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 4 yds to the ND 36Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+33
5.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 33 yds to the OSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
4.8%
Riley Leonard sacked by JT Tuimoloau for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 33Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+3
4.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 3 yds to the OSU 30Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+30
17.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 30 yds for a TD (Jordan Faison pass to Beaux Collins for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16FG
17 plays · 61 yds · 3:4191% → 98%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
9.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the OSU 27Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
8.1%
Will Howard run for 8 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
7.2%
Will Howard run for no gain to the OSU 35Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
6.6%
Will Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 34Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+56
6.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 56 yds to the ND 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-5
3.0%
Ohio State Penalty, False Start (Bennett Christian) to the ND 15Similar
Q4 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+1
3.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the ND 14Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
3.2%
Will Howard run for 1 yd to the ND 13Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-2
2.6%
Will Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 15Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
2.0%
Jayden Fielding 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17END OF GAME
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:213% → 3%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
2.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 23Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+17
2.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 17 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:15
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 30 yds for a TD (Jordan Faison pass to Beaux Collins for Two-Point Conversion)
+13.1
TD · Q3 3:03
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 34 yds for a TD (Riley Leonard pass to Jeremiyah Love for Two-Point Conversion)
+11.3
TD · Q2 0:27
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com