ARDLINETry the model
OSU

Ohio State 34 at Notre Dame 23

ND
2024 · Week 1 · Jan 21, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDKEY PLAYTDTDTDTD
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Jayden Fielding kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:55
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 24
+2.6
Q1 14:21
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the ND 32
+0.2
Q1 13:48
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:13
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Kris Mitchell
+0.2
Q1 13:08
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 10 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 12:36
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 7 yds to the OSU 47
+0.8
Q1 11:56
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the OSU 45
+0.9
Q1 11:15
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the OSU 45
-0.2
Q1 10:37
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the OSU 42 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 9:57
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Raridon for 14 yds to the OSU 28 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q1 9:23
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Kris Mitchell
+0.1
Q1 9:15
Jadarian Price run for 9 yds to the OSU 19
0.0
Q1 8:31
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the OSU 14 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q1 7:56
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the OSU 12
+0.6
Q1 7:16
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the OSU 7
0.0
Q1 6:38
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the OSU 5
-0.2
Q1 5:55
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the OSU 1 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 5:15
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+12.4
Q1 5:15
Mitch Jeter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.2
Q1 5:11
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OSU 30
-4.6
Q1 4:34
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OSU 30
0.0
Q1 3:55
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 7 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 3:09
Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 4 yds to the OSU 41
+0.1
Q1 2:33
TreVeyon Henderson run for 19 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q1 2:01
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 15 yds to the ND 25 for a 1ST down
-1.7
Q1 1:20
Jeremiah Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 30
+0.1
Q1 0:40
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 12 yds to the ND 18
0.0
Q1 0:06
Will Howard run for 5 yds to the ND 13 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 14:55
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the ND 8
+0.5
Q2 14:10
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 8 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-11.1
Q2 14:10
Jayden Fielding kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.3
Q2 14:06
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Beaux Collins
+3.4
Q2 14:06
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Beaux Collins) to the ND 20
0.0
Q2 13:57
Leonard, Riley pass complete to Collins, Beaux for 13 yards to the NOTREDAME33, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Jagusah, Charles) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME10, NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 13:44
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 12
0.0
Q2 13:05
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 8 yds to the ND 20
0.0
Q2 12:21
James Rendell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Caleb Downs at the OSU 34 Ohio State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OSU 24
-0.3
Q2 12:15
Emeka Egbuka run for 13 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST down
-3.1
Q2 11:41
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 15 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 11:03
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the ND 46
-1.6
Q2 10:21
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 3 yds to the ND 43
+1.1
Q2 9:40
Will Howard run for 11 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 8:56
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 12 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 8:20
Timeout Ohio State, clock 08:20
+1.0
Q2 8:16
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the ND 18
0.0
Q2 7:36
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 6 yds to the ND 12
-1.8
Q2 6:59
Will Howard run for 3 yds to the ND 9 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:15
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-17.1
Q2 6:15
Jayden Fielding kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.1
Q2 6:10
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the ND 30
+4.6
Q2 5:37
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Kris Mitchell
+0.1
Q2 5:00
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ND
+0.6
Q2 4:53
James Rendell punt for 51 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 20
+0.2
Q2 4:48
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 2 yds to the OSU 22
-4.7
Q2 4:09
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OSU 23
0.0
Q2 3:25
Will Howard pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 19 yds to the OSU 42 for a 1ST down
-1.5
Q2 2:35
Will Howard sacked by Joshua Burnham for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 41
-0.8
Q2 2:02
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OSU 45
+0.1
Q2 2:00
Two-Minute Timeout, clock 02:00
0.0
Q2 1:55
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 20 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:27
Will Howard sacked by Joshua Burnham for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 38
0.0
Q2 1:25
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:25
+0.8
Q2 1:19
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 15 yds to the ND 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:12
Will Howard pass incomplete to TreVeyon Henderson
+0.5
Q2 1:06
Will Howard run for 11 yds to the ND 12 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:55
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the ND 6
0.0
Q2 0:30
Timeout Ohio State, clock 00:30
-0.1
Q2 0:27
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-8.0
Q2 0:27
Jayden Fielding kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.2
Q2 0:21
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 7 yds to the ND 32
+2.4
Q3 15:00
Mitch Jeter kickoff for 60 yds for a touchback
-0.6
Q3 14:56
Will Howard pass incomplete to Jeremiah Smith
-2.0
Q3 14:45
Quinshon Judkins run for 70 yds to the ND 5 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q3 14:03
Timeout Ohio State, clock 14:03
-0.2
Q3 13:58
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the ND 4
0.0
Q3 13:19
Will Howard run for 3 yds to the ND 1
0.0
Q3 12:46
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-5.5
Q3 12:46
Jayden Fielding kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q3 12:42
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jaden Greathouse
+2.7
Q3 12:38
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 27
0.0
Q3 11:59
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 6 yds to the ND 33
+0.1
Q3 11:18
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Jordan Faison
0.0
Q3 11:15
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the ND 29
-2.9
Q3 10:36
Will Howard run for 7 yds to the ND 22 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:51
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the ND 19
0.0
Q3 9:08
Howard, Will pass complete to Egbuka, Emeka for 5 yards to the NOTREDAME14, PENALTY OSU holding (Fryar, Josh) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME29, NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 8:41
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the ND 28
0.0
Q3 7:58
Will Howard pass incomplete to Carnell Tate
0.0
Q3 7:52
Jayden Fielding 46 yd FG GOOD
-0.2
Q3 7:52
Jayden Fielding kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q3 7:47
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the ND 30
+1.6
Q3 7:15
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 6 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q3 6:41
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 10 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:10
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 48
0.0
Q3 5:28
Riley Leonard sacked by Sonny Styles for a loss of 11 yards to the ND 37
0.0
Q3 4:48
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Evans, Mitchell, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Igbinosun, Davison) 15 yards to the OSU48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.
0.0
Q3 4:43
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Raridon for 6 yds to the OSU 42
+0.1
Q3 4:13
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the OSU 39
0.0
Q3 3:39
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the OSU 34 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 3:13
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jayden Thomas
0.0
Q3 3:03
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 34 yds for a TD (Riley Leonard pass to Jeremiyah Love for Two-Point Conversion)
+6.9
Q3 3:03
Mitch Jeter kickoff for 61 yds for a touchback
-0.8
Q3 3:00
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 7 yds to the OSU 32
-3.4
Q3 2:25
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the OSU 34
0.0
Q3 1:54
Will Howard run for 2 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q3 1:09
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the OSU 38
0.0
Q3 0:31
Howard, Will pass incomplete to Henderson, TreVeyon, PENALTY NOTREDAME roughing passer (Oben, RJ) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OSU.
0.0
Q3 0:27
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the ND 45
0.0
Q4 14:46
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 24 yds Emeka Egbuka fumbled, forced by Drayk Bowen, recovered by ND Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
-0.4
Q4 14:40
Jordan Faison run for 1 yd to the ND 22
+2.8
Q4 14:07
Riley Leonard pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 14:00
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 30 yds to the OSU 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:34
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Collins, Beaux, PENALTY OSU holding (Igbinosun, Davison) 10 yards to the OSU38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.
-0.7
Q4 13:25
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for a loss of 4 yards to the OSU 42
+0.1
Q4 12:47
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the OSU 40
0.0
Q4 12:05
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 7 yds to the OSU 33
-1.3
Q4 11:26
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 11 yds to the OSU 22 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q4 10:58
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 6 yds to the OSU 16
0.0
Q4 10:21
Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Harrison, Jayden, PENALTY OSU holding (Hancock, Jordan) 8 yards to the OSU8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.
0.0
Q4 10:16
Riley Leonard run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 9
0.0
Q4 9:38
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Mitchell Evans
+0.1
Q4 9:34
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jaden Greathouse
0.0
Q4 9:27
Mitch Jeter 27 yd FG MISSED
0.0
Q4 9:24
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the OSU 21
-2.4
Q4 8:43
Will Howard run for 11 yds to the OSU 32 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 8:02
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the OSU 35
0.0
Q4 7:15
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the OSU 39
0.0
Q4 6:34
Will Howard pass incomplete to Jeremiah Smith
0.0
Q4 6:25
Joe McGuire punt for 51 yds , Max Hurleman returns for 10 yds to the ND 20
0.0
Q4 6:20
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 12 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST down
+1.5
Q4 6:01
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 4 yds to the ND 36
0.0
Q4 5:27
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 33 yds to the OSU 31 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 4:57
Riley Leonard sacked by JT Tuimoloau for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 33
+0.2
Q4 4:38
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 3 yds to the OSU 30
0.0
Q4 4:15
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 30 yds for a TD (Jordan Faison pass to Beaux Collins for Two-Point Conversion)
+6.8
Q4 4:15
Mitch Jeter kickoff for 47 yds , TreVeyon Henderson return for 6 yds to the OSU 24
-1.2
Q4 4:07
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the OSU 27
-2.5
Q4 3:26
Will Howard run for 8 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 2:50
Will Howard run for no gain to the OSU 35
-0.1
Q4 2:49
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 02:49
-0.6
Q4 2:46
Will Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 34
0.0
Q4 2:45
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 02:45
0.0
Q4 2:38
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 56 yds to the ND 10 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:00
Two-Minute Timeout, clock 02:00
-0.5
Q4 2:00
Ohio State Penalty, False Start (Bennett Christian) to the ND 15
0.0
Q4 1:57
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the ND 14
-0.3
Q4 1:56
Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:56
+0.1
Q4 1:53
Will Howard run for 1 yd to the ND 13
0.0
Q4 1:13
Timeout Ohio State, clock 01:13
0.0
Q4 1:08
Will Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 15
0.0
Q4 0:29
Timeout Ohio State, clock 00:29
+0.1
Q4 0:26
Jayden Fielding 33 yd FG GOOD
-2.1
Q4 0:26
Jayden Fielding kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 0:21
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 23
+2.5
Q4 0:00
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 17 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:15
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q1 5:15
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q2 14:10
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 8 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-11.1
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com