2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreWMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · L. Kienholz takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:04: TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — WMU win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:00: Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 70 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:02: Quinshon Judkins run for 23 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:28: Quinshon Judkins run for 23 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:20: Will Howard run for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
- Q1 13:39WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q1 6:28WMU 4th & 3 at OSU 25, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.6%52% to convertField goalTheir call2.5%−0.166% to makePunt2.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:41WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 34, down 14Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:17WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 37, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q2 11:08OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 47, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.2%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%average punt
- Q2 9:45WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 13, down 21Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 9:45WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 13, down 21Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 6:54WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 1:04WMU 4th & 16 at WMU 45, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 0:35OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 34, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q3 12:09OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 29, up 35Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:59WMU 4th & 27 at WMU 3, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.35% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 9:59OSU 4th & 8 at WMU 38, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%35% to convertField goal99.7%−<0.138% to makePunt99.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 4:18WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 28, down 42Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:05WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 31, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:06WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 25, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:01OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 45, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:37WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 27, down 57Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 11:04OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:00OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:02OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:28OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:20OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:44OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:05OSU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:01OSU Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWMUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 6 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
98.4%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Cody Simon for a loss of 7 yards to the WMU 24Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+1
98.3%
Ryan Millmore punt for 32 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 1 yd to the OSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD6 plays · 55 yds · 2:3598% → 98%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
98.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 5
50
+10
98.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 10 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
98.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 10 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
98.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 21 yds to the WMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3MISSED FG13 plays · 55 yds · 4:312% → 2%
Q1 10:59
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+16
98.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 16 yds to the WMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+6
98.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordin Parker for 6 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
98.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 19 yds to the OSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2898% → 98%
Q1 6:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
97.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 7 yds to the OSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
97.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Will sacked for loss of 3 yards to the OSU37 (Green,Isaiah) PENALTY OSU Holding (Siereveld,Austin) 10 yards from OSU40 to OSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+70
98.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 70 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:192% → 2%
Q1 2:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.8%
Ryan Millmore punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD5 plays · 73 yds · 1:3998% → 99%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
97.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 15 yds to the OSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
98.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 18 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
98.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 17 yds to the WMU 23 for a 1ST down Western Michigan Penalty, Defensive Holding (Luka Zurak) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:452% → 2%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wolff,Hayden pass incomplete short left to Sambucci,Anthony thrown to WMU37 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Igbinosun,Davison) 15 yards from WMU25 to WMU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Nixon,Jaden rush right for 7 yards gain to the WMU47 (Downs,Caleb) PENALTY WMU Holding (Sherwin,Jack) OSU Targeting offsetting 10 yards from WMU40 to WMU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
98.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 38Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
98.5%
Ryan Millmore punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5699% → 99%
WMUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:232% → 2%
OSUDrive 10TD4 plays · 65 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
98.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 35 yds to the WMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q2 6:54
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Ryan Millmore punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD6 plays · 70 yds · 2:3499% → 100%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+36
99.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 36 yds to the WMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13PUNT12 plays · 20 yds · 3:160% → 0%
Q2 2:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordin Parker for 5 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
99.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 16 yds to the OSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-10
99.7%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Jack Sawyer for a loss of 10 yards to the WMU 41Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 16
OWN 45
+2
99.8%
Ryan Millmore punt for 44 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 2 yds to the OSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 0:29100% → 100%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
99.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 15 yds to the OSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds to the OSU 34Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
99.6%
Joe McGuire punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordin Parker at the WMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Will pass complete short left to Smith,Jeremiah caught at OSU15, for 15 yards to the OSU21 (Wofford,Aaron) PENALTY OSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Fryar,Josh) 3 yards from OSU06 to OSU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
99.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Will Kacmarek for no gain to the OSU 29Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Joe McGuire punt for 46 yds , Jordin Parker returns for no gain to the WMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -17 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q3 12:09
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+20
99.8%
run for 20 yds to the WMU 3 fumbled, recovered by WMU Hayden WolffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD6 plays · 40 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
99.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Brandon Inniss for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 41Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+19
99.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 19 yds to the WMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 16 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:220% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20TD8 plays · 81 yds · 4:13100% → 100%
Q3 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+12
99.9%
Devin Brown pass complete to Bryson Rodgers for 12 yds to the OSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+12
99.9%
Devin Brown pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 12 yds to the WMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+27
99.9%
Devin Brown pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 27 yds to the WMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 14:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Ryan Millmore punt for 43 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 3 yds to the OSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22PUNT11 plays · 16 yds · 5:24100% → 100%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Peoples,James rush left for 6 yards gain to the WMU26 (Willis,Donald) PENALTY OSU Holding (Michalski,Zen) 10 yards from WMU32 to WMU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 20
OPP 42
-4
99.9%
Devin Brown sacked by Jacob Wahlberg for a loss of 4 yards to the WMU 46Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 24
OPP 46
-2
99.9%
Devin Brown pass complete to James Peoples for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 48Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 26
OPP 48
-7
99.9%
Devin Brown sacked by Corey Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the OSU 45Similar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 33
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Nick McLarty punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordin Parker at the WMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 7:06
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Ryan Millmore punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24TD5 plays · 64 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.9%
Julian Sayin pass complete to Patrick Gurd for 6 yds to the OSU 42Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+55
100.0%
Bennett Christian 55 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Austin Snyder Kick)Similar
Q4 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
100.0%
PENALTY WMU Offside 2 yards from WMU03 to WMU01. NO PLAY. (Austin Snyder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:240% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26END OF GAME5 plays · 40 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:02
Quinshon Judkins run for 23 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 11:04
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-0.2
TD · Q1 4:00
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 70 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+0.2