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Ohio State 38 at Michigan State 7

MSU
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:55 · Julian Sayin pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:04: Gee Scott Jr. 3 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick) — OSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:41: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 12 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MSU down 3 timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:48: Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 5 yds to the MSU 40 — OSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:29: Devin Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:57: Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 33 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:15OSU 4th & 12 at MSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:17MSU 4th & 1 at OSU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:04OSU 4th & 3 at MSU 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:53OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 23, up 10
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:17MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:16MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:24OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.5%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:57OSU 4th & 5 at MSU 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    92.5%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:57MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 24, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:14OSU 4th & 3 at MSU 49, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:30MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:29MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 7, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:08OSU 4th & 1 at MSU 48, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:57OSU 4th & 8 at MSU 41, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 14:04OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:41MSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:22OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:29OSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:57OSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:05OSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:4594% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
6.1%
Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for a loss of 4 yards to the OSU 21Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+29
6.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
50
+4
6.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 4 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+13
6.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 13 yds to the MSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
6.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+7
6.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 7 yds to the MSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
7.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 12 yds to the MSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
7.2%
Ohio State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the MSU 21Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+5
7.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 5 yds to the MSU 16Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+4
7.7%
Will Howard run for 4 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
7.9%
Jayden Fielding 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:568% → 9%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
7.8%
Nate Carter run for 19 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
8.2%
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the OSU 48Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+19
8.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 19 yds to the OSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
9.0%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Sonny Styles for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 32Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+4
9.2%
Nate Carter run for 4 yds to the OSU 28Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+8
9.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 8 yds to the OSU 20Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
9.3%
Aidan Chiles run for no gain to the OSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:1091% → 91%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
9.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 7 yds to the OSU 27Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-2
9.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 25Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+8
9.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 8 yds to the OSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
9.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
9.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the OSU 39Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+19
9.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 19 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
9.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Aaron Scott Jr. for 7 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Malik Spencer) to the MSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
9.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
10.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the MSU 15Similar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+6
10.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 6 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
10.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the MSU 3Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
10.4%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
10.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
9.2%
Gee Scott Jr. 3 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:339% → 9%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
8.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 9 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
8.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 5 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
9.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 24 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
9.4%
Nate Carter run for no gain to the OSU 37Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+26
9.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 26 yds Jack Velling fumbled, recovered by OSU Sonny Styles S. Styles return for 8 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:2390% → 90%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
10.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 18 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
9.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the OSU 43Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
9.9%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-36
10.0%
Will Howard pass intercepted Jordan Turner return for 36 yds to the OSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
14.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 12 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1987% → 89%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
13.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 20 yds to the OSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
12.8%
(09:21) HOWARD, Will pass short to the right complete for 2 yards to HENDERSON, TreVeyon caught at the OSU47 and advanced to the OSU47, out of bounds, clock 09:15. PENALTY OSU Holding on SCOTT JR., Gee enforced 10 yards from the OSU45 to the OSU35 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+37
13.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 37 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
12.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+19
11.4%
Jeremiah Smith run for 19 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8FUMBLE
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:1112% → 14%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.5%
Nate Carter run for no gain to the MSU 25Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
11.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
11.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 15 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
12.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 25 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
13.7%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 7 yds to the OSU 28Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+5
13.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 5 yds to the OSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
14.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
14.0%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 7 yds to the OSU 16Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
13.6%
Aidan Chiles run for no gain to the OSU 16 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by OSU Jack Sawyer J. Sawyer return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1084% → 80%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
15.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OSU 20Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+3
16.1%
Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 3 yds to the OSU 23Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
18.7%
Will Howard run for no gain to the OSU 23Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
19.6%
Joe McGuire punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:3114% → 6%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
13.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 5 yds to the MSU 40Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-6
13.8%
Aidan Chiles sacked by JT Tuimoloau for a loss of 6 yards to the MSU 34Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-1
8.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 33Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
5.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 0:4288% → 98%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
12.0%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
12.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 16 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+27
11.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 27 yds to the MSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
11.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
11.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
2.4%
Devin Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:244% → 4%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
3.8%
Michigan State Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Aidan Chiles) to the MSU 21Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-2
3.7%
(00:03) Kneel down by MSU at MSU19 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:448% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.7%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
7.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 8 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
7.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
7.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
7.8%
CHILES, Aidan scrambles to the left for a gain of 17 yards to the MSU31 (IGBINOSUN, Davison), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY MSU Holding on LYNCH-ADAMS, Kay'Ron OSU Holding on STYLES JR., Lorenzo , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
7.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+10
7.4%
Ryan Eckley punt for 55 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 10 yds to the OSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 7:1193% → 98%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
6.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 7 yds to the OSU 31Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
6.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the OSU 33Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
6.8%
Will Howard run for 3 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
6.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the OSU 37Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
6.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the OSU 45Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
6.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the OSU 45Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
6.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the OSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
6.1%
(07:43) HENDERSON, TreVeyon rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the OSU47 (HALADAY, Cal), clock 07:37. PENALTY OSU Holding on TSHABOLA, Tegra enforced 10 yards from the OSU46 to the OSU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 20
OWN 36
-3
6.5%
Caleb Downs run for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 42 Will Howard fumbled, recovered by OSU TreVeyon Henderson T. Henderson return for 9 ydsSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+20
6.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 20 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
5.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
5.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
5.6%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+33
2.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 33 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 11 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
1.3%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-31
1.2%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted Denzel Burke return for 31 yds to the MSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:1799% → 100%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
1.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 2 yds to the MSU 10Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
1.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MSU 6Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
0.5%
Will Howard run for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
0.3%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Mitchell Melton for a loss of 8 yards to the MSU 17Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+1
0.2%
Nate Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 18Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+6
0.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 24Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+9
0.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 58 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 9 yds to the OSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
0.4%
James Peoples run for 3 yds to the OSU 30Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
0.4%
Devin Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+14
0.4%
Devin Brown pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 14 yds to the OSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
0.3%
James Peoples run for 4 yds to the OSU 48Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
0.3%
James Peoples run for 3 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
0.3%
Devin Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
0.3%
Joe McGuire punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:390% → 0%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
0.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 8 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+1
0.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MSU 24Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
0.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
0.1%
Tommy Schuster sacked by C.J. Hicks and Mitchell Melton for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 26Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+5
0.1%
Ohio State Penalty, Offsides (Mitchell Melton) to the MSU 31Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Ryan Eckley punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
0.0%
Brandon Tullis run for 1 yd to the MSU 10Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 10
-3
0.0%
Brandon Tullis run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 7Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 12
OWN 7
0
0.0%
Tommy Schuster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 12
OWN 7
0
0.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds, downed at the OSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
0.1%
James Peoples run for 5 yds to the OSU 48Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
0.1%
James Peoples run for 4 yds to the MSU 48Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
0.1%
James Peoples run for no gain to the MSU 48Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
0.1%
Julian Sayin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
0.0%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Ademola Faleye for 4 yds to the OSU 48Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+16
0.0%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Jaelen Smith for 16 yds to the OSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
0.0%
Tommy Schuster pass complete to Makhi Frazier for 12 yds to the OSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:28100% → 100%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
0.2%
James Peoples run for 2 yds to the OSU 28Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
0.2%
Devin Brown pass complete to Bryson Rodgers for 5 yds to the OSU 33Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+12
0.2%
Devin Brown pass complete to Bryson Rodgers for 12 yds to the OSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
0.1%
James Peoples run for 6 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+6
0.1%
Devin Brown pass complete to Bennett Christian for 6 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
0.1%
James Peoples run for 4 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-2
0.1%
James Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 41Similar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
0.1%
Joe McGuire punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 9Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
0.1%
Julian Sayin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:48
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 5 yds to the MSU 40
-6.1
TD · Q2 0:29
Devin Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-5.9
TD · Q3 4:57
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 33 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com