2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMICH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · Will Howard pass incomplete to TreVeyon Henderson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:30: Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:48: TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OSU 17 — OSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:45: Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +36.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:45: Will Howard pass incomplete to Gee Scott Jr. — OSU win probability +12.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:23: PENALTY UM UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Barham,Jaishawn) 15 yards from OSU26 to OSU41. NO PLAY. — MICH win probability +11.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 10:33MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 36, tiedClose callPunted · 11.2% before the snapGo for it11.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:14OSU 4th & 5 at MICH 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snapGo for it87.5%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call87.6%87% to makePunt87.0%−0.6average punt
- Q2 14:44MICH 4th & 1 at OSU 3, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.6%63% to convertField goal13.9%−0.693% to makePunt12.3%−2.3average punt
- Q2 12:37OSU 4th & 1 at MICH 33, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.0%71% to convertField goal82.0%−1.049% to makePunt81.7%−1.3average punt
- Q2 7:28OSU 4th & 7 at MICH 20, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snapGo for it78.6%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call78.9%75% to makePunt75.3%−3.6average punt
- Q2 5:41MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 25, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snapGo for it21.7%−0.640% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.3%average punt
- Q2 4:17OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 8, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snapGo for it73.0%−1.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.3%average punt
- Q2 2:15MICH 4th & 7 at OSU 36, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snapGo for it26.9%37% to convertField goalTheir call26.6%−0.442% to makePunt25.8%−1.2average punt
- Q3 10:08OSU 4th & 7 at MICH 38, tiedClose callPunted · 76.1% before the snapGo for it76.5%37% to convertField goal75.7%−0.838% to makePuntTheir call75.8%−0.8average punt
- Q3 8:24MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snapGo for it24.5%−1.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.8%average punt
- Q3 1:58OSU 4th & 10 at MICH 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snapGo for it68.4%−1.927% to convertField goalTheir call70.2%81% to makePunt60.4%−9.9average punt
- Q4 6:13OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 21, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 58.7% before the snapGo for it59.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.3%−3.3average punt
- Q4 0:45MICH 4th & 3 at OSU 3, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snapGo for it52.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call48.6%−4.393% to makePunt9.5%−43.4average punt
- Q4 0:23OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.8%30% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.4%−1.4average punt
- Q4 0:23OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.8%30% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.4%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 12:37MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.9%97% to makeGo for two17.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:30OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.6%97% to makeGo for two75.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMICHDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 4:229% → 10%
OSUDrive 2FG10 plays · 58 yds · 4:1990% → 89%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
89.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 9 yds to the OSU 40Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+8
89.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 8 yds to the OSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
89.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 8 yds to the MICH 44Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+13
89.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 13 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
90.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Will pass incomplete deep right to Smith,Jeremiah thrown to UM00 PENALTY UM Pass Interference (Johnson,Quinten) 15 yards from UM31 to UM16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3DOWNS12 plays · 72 yds · 6:3011% → 14%
Q1 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
88.8%
Davis Warren pass complete to Hogan Hansen for 9 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
88.7%
Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 1 yd to the MICH 38Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+6
86.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 6 yds to the OSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4INT3 plays · 1 yds · 1:2387% → 86%
MICHDrive 5TD2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4415% → 18%
OSUDrive 6MISSED FG13 plays · 55 yds · 5:0983% → 81%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
84.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 18 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
84.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 5 yds to the MICH 37 Ohio State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Yards) to the MICH 37Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+5
83.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Will rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UM19 (Grant,Kenneth; Hausmann,Ernest) PENALTY UM Offside (Stewart,Josaiah) 5 yards from UM24 to UM19. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4720% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2478% → 76%
Q2 4:17
4TH & 9
OWN 8
0
76.3%
Joe McGuire punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tyler Morris at the OSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9FG4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0225% → 32%
Q2 4:17
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+1
75.7%
Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 1 yd to the OSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD12 plays · 75 yds · 1:4571% → 82%
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 6 yds to the OSU 31Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
68.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 18 yds to the OSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
71.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 9 yds to the MICH 42Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
72.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 4 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
72.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 11 yds to the MICH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+15
73.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Will pass incomplete deep left to Smith,Jeremiah thrown to UM00 PENALTY UM Pass Interference (Hill,Jyaire) 15 yards from UM25 to UM10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
82.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT12 plays · 56 yds · 4:5079% → 77%
Q3 14:58
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+9
78.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 9 yds to the OSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
79.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 13 yds to the OSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:58
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+24
78.9%
Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 24 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
81.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 3 yds to the MICH 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4426% → 25%
Q3 8:24
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
75.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Caleb Downs at the MICH 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14INT7 plays · 31 yds · 3:3378% → 76%
Q3 8:24
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+6
77.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 6 yds to the MICH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:5030% → 29%
OSUDrive 16MISSED FG4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0377% → 72%
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
76.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for no gain to the MICH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17INT16 plays · 77 yds · 9:1033% → 48%
Q3 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
68.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Marlin Klein for 7 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+6
65.8%
Davis Warren pass complete to Marlin Klein for 6 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+18
64.2%
Davis Warren pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 18 yds to the OSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
59.5%
Shotgun Bell,Kendrick pass incomplete deep right to Morris,Tyler thrown to OSU01 broken up by Burke,Denzel PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Burke,Denzel) 15 yards from OSU28 to OSU13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-12
51.9%
Davis Warren pass intercepted Jack Sawyer return for 12 yds to the OSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3564% → 59%
Q4 6:13
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+2
59.0%
Joe McGuire punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 40 , Tyler Morris returns for 2 yds to the MICH 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FG16 plays · 57 yds · 5:2847% → 93%
Q4 1:55
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+4
41.6%
PENALTY OSU Illegal Substitution 4 yards from OSU09 to OSU05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20DOWNS7 plays · 1 yds · 0:2220% → 16%
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.6%
Will Howard pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 1 yd to the OSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:45
Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOOD
-36.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:45
Will Howard pass incomplete to Gee Scott Jr.
+12.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:48
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OSU 17
+11.9