2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreIOWA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:35 · W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by B.Inniss for 21 yards. Tackled by S.Castro at IOW 11.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:51: W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by E.Egbuka for 14 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — OSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:34: K.Johnson rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by A.Reese at IOW 33. — IOWA win probability +1.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:41: W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by J.Smith for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — OSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 9:21: T.Henderson rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Higgins; S.Castro at IOW 15. — OSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:06: W.Howard rushed for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — OSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 11:28IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it13.9%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.0%average punt
- Q2 13:06IOWA 4th & 3 at OSU 33, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.9%53% to convertField goalTheir call15.4%−0.549% to makePunt15.1%−0.8average punt
- Q2 9:49OSU 4th & 2 at IOWA 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.7%57% to convertField goal83.8%−1.030% to makePunt84.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 4:28IOWA 4th & 6 at OSU 49, down 7Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.3%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:43OSU 4th & 8 at IOWA 41, up 7Close callPunted · 83.5% before the snapGo for it83.4%34% to convertField goal83.1%−0.332% to makePuntTheir call83.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:21IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it14.0%−1.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%average punt
- Q3 1:35OSU 4th & 2 at IOWA 32, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.3%57% to convertField goal97.8%−0.451% to makePunt97.6%−0.7average punt
- Q4 5:56OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 34, up 28Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:42IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 38, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:51OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.4%97% to makeGo for two85.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:41OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.1%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:06OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:23OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:04OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:18IOWA Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIOWADrive 1PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 3:3212% → 13%
Q1 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
87.4%
K.Johnson rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Sawyer; C.Simon at IOW 29.Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
87.2%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by R.Vander Zee for 11 yards. Tackled by L.Ransom at IOW 40.Similar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
87.0%
K.Johnson rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by S.Styles; T.Hamilton at IOW 42.Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-1
86.7%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by L.Lachey for -1 yards. Tackled by C.Downs at IOW 41.Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
86.6%
C.McNamara steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.Wetjen.Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+47
86.6%
R.Dakin punts 47 yards to OSU 12, Center-L.Elkin. Downed by IOW.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD14 plays · 88 yds · 7:2687% → 87%
Q1 10:50
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+5
86.3%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by E.Egbuka for 5 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Harris at OSU 21.Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+12
86.1%
T.Henderson rushed for 12 yards. Tackled by Q.Schulte at OSU 33.Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
85.9%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by T.Henderson for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Harris; J.Higgins at OSU 35.Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+8
85.5%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by B.Rodgers for 8 yards. Tackled by D.Lee; K.Fisher at OSU 43.Similar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
85.7%
Q.Judkins rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by X.Nwankpa; Q.Schulte at OSU 48.Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+12
85.6%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by W.Kacmarek for 12 yards. Tackled by N.Jackson at IOW 40.Similar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
85.5%
Q.Judkins rushed for 7 yards. Pushed out of bounds by K.Fisher at IOW 33.Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+7
85.4%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by E.Egbuka for 7 yards. Pushed out of bounds by D.Lee at IOW 26.Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+5
84.7%
Q.Judkins rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by X.Nwankpa; D.Craig at IOW 14.Similar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
86.8%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by E.Egbuka for 14 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3MISSED FG11 plays · 42 yds · 5:3514% → 15%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.1%
K.Johnson rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by T.Hamilton; A.Reese at IOW 29.Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
85.9%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by J.Gill for -2 yards. Pushed out of bounds by C.Downs at IOW 27.Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+22
86.0%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by J.Gill for 22 yards. Tackled by OSU at IOW 49.Similar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
85.1%
J.Patterson rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by T.Hamilton, C.Simon at OSU 47.Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
84.9%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by J.Patterson for 3 yards. Pushed out of bounds by S.Styles at OSU 44.Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
84.8%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by J.Gill for 4 yards. Tackled by L.Ransom at OSU 40.Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
84.5%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by L.Lachey for 6 yards. Tackled by C.Simon at OSU 34.Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+1
84.3%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by K.Johnson for 1 yards. Tackled by OSU at OSU 33.Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
84.7%
D.Stevens 51 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-L.Elkin, Holder-T.Nissen.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4DOWNS6 plays · 26 yds · 3:0386% → 85%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
85.5%
T.Henderson rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by N.Jackson; J.Higgins at OSU 38.Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+12
86.0%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by E.Egbuka for 12 yards. Pushed out of bounds by K.Fisher at OSU 50.Similar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+2
86.1%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by B.Inniss for 2 yards. Tackled by S.Castro; J.Higgins at IOW 48.Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+4
85.5%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by E.Egbuka for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Higgins at IOW 42.Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
85.1%
W.Howard rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by Y.Black; J.Higgins at IOW 41.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1616% → 16%
Q2 9:12
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-2
84.1%
IOW rushed for -2 yards. IOW FUMBLES. Fumble RECOVERED by IOW-H.Large at IOW 42. Tackled by OSU at IOW 40.Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+10
84.6%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by J.Buie for 10 yards. Tackled by D.Burke at OSU 50. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain and the play was upheld.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6FUMBLE2 plays · 44 yds · 0:3785% → 86%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
85.2%
Q.Judkins rushed for 21 yards. Pushed out of bounds by Q.Schulte at OSU 49.Similar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
86.0%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by J.Smith for 23 yards. J.Smith FUMBLES, forced by J.Higgins. Fumble RECOVERED by IOW-J.Higgins at IOW 28. Tackled by OSU at IOW 28.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0616% → 16%
Q2 5:57
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
83.9%
C.McNamara steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Gill.Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+14
84.4%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by R.Vander Zee for 14 yards. Tackled by D.Igbinosun at IOW 47.Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
82.8%
C.McNamara steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for A.Ostrenga.Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
82.9%
C.McNamara steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for A.Ostrenga.Similar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 6
OPP 49
+49
84.1%
R.Dakin punts 49 yards to OSU End Zone, Center-L.Elkin. Touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 39 yds · 2:3585% → 84%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.8%
W.Howard steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for E.Egbuka.Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
84.9%
J.Smith rushed for 14 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Harris at OSU 47.Similar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
85.8%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by Q.Judkins for -2 yards. Tackled by S.Castro at OSU 45.Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+12
84.9%
W.Howard rushed for 12 yards. Tackled by J.Higgins; Q.Schulte at IOW 43.Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
85.6%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by E.Egbuka for 2 yards. Pushed out of bounds by N.Jackson at IOW 41.Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
85.1%
W.Howard steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for B.Inniss.Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 8
OPP 41
+34
83.9%
J.McGuire punts 34 yards to IOW 7, Center-J.Ferlmann. Fair catch by K.Wetjen.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1416% → 15%
OSUDrive 10INT2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0685% → 85%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
85.3%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by T.Henderson for 2 yards. Pushed out of bounds by Z.Lutmer at OSU 47.Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
85.3%
W.Howard pass INTERCEPTED at IOW 38. Intercepted by S.Castro at IOW 38. Tackled by E.Egbuka at IOW 38.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD9 plays · 86 yds · 5:1084% → 92%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.1%
Q.Judkins rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by D.Lee; J.Higgins at OSU 29.Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
83.9%
W.Howard rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by D.Lee; Y.Black at OSU 39.Similar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
84.8%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by E.Egbuka for 9 yards. Tackled by D.Lee; E.Hurkett at OSU 48.Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-5
85.4%
W.Howard steps back to pass. Sacked at OSU 43 for -5 yards (J.Higgins).Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+53
84.3%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by J.Smith for 53 yards. Tackled by Q.Schulte at IOW 4.Similar
Q3 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.1%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by J.Smith for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
90.6%
C.McNamara steps back to pass. Sacked at IOW 19 for 0 yards (J.Sawyer). C.McNamara FUMBLES, forced by J.Sawyer. Fumble RECOVERED by OSU-C.Simon at IOW 19. Tackled by IOW at IOW 19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD3 plays · 19 yds · 1:1592% → 97%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
92.2%
T.Henderson rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Higgins; S.Castro at IOW 15.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14INT7 plays · 51 yds · 3:523% → 3%
Q3 7:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
96.9%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by R.Vander Zee for 4 yards. Pushed out of bounds by D.Burke at IOW 27.Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
97.1%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by L.Lachey for 9 yards. Tackled by C.Simon at IOW 36.Similar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+28
96.9%
K.Johnson rushed for 28 yards. Pushed out of bounds by C.Downs at OSU 36.Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+13
97.4%
C.McNamara pass complete. Catch made by L.Lachey for 13 yards. Tackled by J.Tuimoloau at OSU 24.Similar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+45
97.1%
C.McNamara pass INTERCEPTED at OSU 15. Intercepted by D.Igbinosun at OSU 15. Pushed out of bounds by K.Johnson at IOW 40.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD8 plays · 36 yds · 3:3097% → 100%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.1%
Q.Judkins rushed for yards. Tackled by E.Hurkett at IOW 26. PENALTY on OSU-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+6
98.0%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by B.Inniss for 6 yards. Tackled by D.Lee at IOW 41.Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+9
98.0%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by J.Smith for 9 yards. Pushed out of bounds by S.Castro at IOW 32.Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+21
98.3%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by B.Inniss for 21 yards. Tackled by S.Castro at IOW 11.Similar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-4
98.5%
W.Howard FUMBLES (aborted). Fumble RECOVERED by OSU-W.Howard at IOW 15. W.Howard rushed for -4 yards. Tackled by IOW at IOW 15.Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 14
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by E.Egbuka for 15 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16FUMBLE3 plays · 2 yds · 0:130% → 0%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
K.Johnson rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by M.Melton; T.Hamilton at IOW 29.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
99.8%
C.McNamara steps back to pass. Sacked at IOW 27 for -2 yards (T.Hamilton). C.McNamara FUMBLES, forced by T.Hamilton. Fumble RECOVERED by OSU-S.Styles at IOW 27. Tackled by IOW at IOW 27. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble and the play was upheld.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD8 plays · 27 yds · 3:48100% → 100%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
99.8%
T.Henderson rushed for 10 yards. Pushed out of bounds by Q.Schulte at IOW 17.Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+4
99.8%
T.Henderson rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by Y.Black; S.Castro at IOW 5.Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.9%
W.Howard rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by K.Fisher; E.Hurkett at IOW 3.Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by E.Egbuka for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:400% → 0%
OSUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Q.Judkins rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by K.Entringer; M.Llewellyn at OSU 32.Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Q.Judkins rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Watson; A.Graves at OSU 34.Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+43
99.9%
J.McGuire punts 43 yards to IOW 23, Center-J.Ferlmann. K.Wetjen returned punt from the IOW 23. Pushed out of bounds by OSU at IOW 35.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
K.Moulton rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by C.Hicks; J.McClain at IOW 41.Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-3
99.9%
B.Sullivan steps back to pass. Sacked at IOW 38 for -3 yards (J.Mathews).Similar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+55
100.0%
R.Dakin punts 55 yards to OSU 7, Center-L.Elkin. B.Inniss returned punt from the OSU 7. Tackled by K.Sharar at OSU 10.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21END OF GAME6 plays · 22 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
99.9%
J.Peoples rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by M.Llewellyn; J.Harrell at OSU 15.Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+7
99.9%
J.Peoples rushed for 7 yards. Tackled by J.Nestor; X.Nwankpa at OSU 22.Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
J.Peoples rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by A.Graves; M.Llewellyn at OSU 22.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:41
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by J.Smith for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+7.9
TD · Q3 8:06
W.Howard rushed for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+4.7
TD · Q1 3:51
W.Howard pass complete. Catch made by E.Egbuka for 14 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+2.1