South Alabama

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3198th
  Defense+0.0857th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense49.7%96th
  Defense40.9%57th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2749th
  Defense+1.2843rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3299th
  Defense+0.0654th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3389th
  Defense+0.1355th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense56.4%99th
  Defense46.2%59th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.2%62nd
  Defense29.7%60th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.5497th
  Defense2.7877th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.4%83rd
  Defense16.6%35th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.7%79th
  Defense15.9%47th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what South Alabama allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   UNT
2. L
   OHIO
3. W
   NWST
4. W
   APP
5. L
   LSU
6. L
   ARST
7. W
   TROY
8. W
   ULM
9. L
   GASO
10. W
    UL
11. W
    USM
12. L
    TXST
13. W
    WMU

Bars above the line: better than expected for South Alabama.

Players, 2024

1. Gio LopezQB306 plays · +0.215 pts/play · 78th of 232 QBs
   1.23WAR0.68 to 1.73
2. Bishop DavenportQB96 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 161st of 232 QBs
   0.29WAR0.11 to 0.46
3. Kentrel BullockRB128 plays · +0.098 pts/play · 125th of 373 RBs
   0.24WAR0.13 to 0.32
4. Fluff BothwellRB90 plays · +0.140 pts/play · 125th of 373 RBs
   0.24WAR0.17 to 0.29
5. Jeremiah WebbWR31 plays · +0.194 pts/play · 129th of 452 WRs
   0.11WAR0.04 to 0.18
6. Laith MarjanPK14 plays · +0.398 pts/play · 28th of 114 kickers
   0.10WAR0.08 to 0.13
7. Devin VoisinWR24 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 197th of 452 WRs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.11
8. Jamaal PritchettWR78 plays · +0.029 pts/play · 263rd of 452 WRs
   0.04WAR−0.17 to 0.25

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares South Alabama's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  55555594th of 131Roster talent: 555, 94th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  13613697th of 131Recruiting: 136, 97th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  37%37%82nd of 130Returning production: 37%, 82nd of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +2.8+2.859th of 131SP+ rating: +2.8, 59th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than South Alabama's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs GASOQ4 1:54 4th & 13 at GASO 23, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−7.7 pts
2. at ULQ2 1:47 4th & 1 at USA 43, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
3. at ULQ2 4:34 4th & 4 at UL 42, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
4. vs ULMQ2 2:24 4th & 4 at ULM 31, down 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
5. vs UNTQ4 1:17 4th & 15 at UNT 35, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
6. at ULQ3 3:00 4th & 6 at USA 44, up 18Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.7 pts
7. at OHIOQ2 8:58 4th & 2 at USA 44, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs TXSTQ4 1:34 4th & 3 at TXST 3, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

84th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up South Alabama's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   UNT
2. L

   OHIO
3. W

   NWST
4. W

   APP
5. L

   LSU
6. L

   ARST
7. W

   TROY
8. W

   ULM
9. L

   GASO
10. W

    UL
11. W

    USM
12. L

    TXST
13. W

    WMU

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at South Alabama's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.07
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock−0.05
• Timeouts−0.22
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.29

Game by game

• UNTL 38-52 vs UNT68% → 1%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −67: Scoreboard −60, Clock −3
• OHIOL 20-27 at OHIO55% → 2%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −3
• NWSTW 87-10 vs NWST98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• APPW 48-14 at APP27% → 100%Before kickoff −23 · On the field +73: Scoreboard +65, Clock +2
• LSUL 10-42 at LSU8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −11
• ARSTL 16-18 at ARST51% → 17%Before kickoff +1 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −17, Timeouts −4
• TROYW 25-9 vs TROY76% → 100%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +28, Clock −1
• ULMW 46-17 vs ULM72% → 100%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +29, Timeouts +1
• GASOL 30-34 vs GASO65% → 4%Before kickoff +15 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −52, Timeouts −5
• ULW 24-22 at UL32% → 88%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +45, Clock +4
• USMW 35-14 at USM94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +12
• TXSTL 38-45 vs TXST45% → 2%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts −10
• WMUW 30-23 at WMU63% → 97%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +43, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from South Alabama's side.

Closest call

USA 59-10 EMU (2023) - South Alabama dropped to a 0.0% win probability before pulling it out.