Try the model
GASO

Georgia Southern 34 at South Alabama 30

USA
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:07 · Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 28 yds to the GASO 1 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Pregame prior+7.0Home team on offense+0.1Garbage-time factor−1.0Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:26: Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +16.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Offense has -3 timeouts left).
  2. TD · Q3 5:08: Fluff Bothwell run for 22 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +12.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:09: Jalen White run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GASO win probability +24.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:14: Dexter Williams II pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 22 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GASO win probability +31.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:14: Timeout South Alabama, clock 08:14 — USA win probability +17.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7GASO made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:24GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:30USA 4th & 11 at GASO 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−2.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:17GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:09USA 4th & 5 at USA 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:56GASO 4th & 4 at USA 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−1.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:24GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 33, up 4
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:07USA 4th & 6 at GASO 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−2.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:07USA 4th & 2 at GASO 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−1.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−7.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:17USA 4th & 6 at GASO 6, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:46GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 38, down 2
    Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:57GASO 4th & 2 at USA 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.1%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:01USA 4th & 10 at USA 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:35GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.4%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:27GASO 4th & 15 at GASO 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−5.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:54USA 4th & 13 at GASO 23, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 7.7 ptsWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%−7.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−14.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:00GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:30GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:17GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:26USA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:08USA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:53GASO Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:09GASO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:14GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1TD
20 plays · 81 yds · 7:1735% → 39%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
65.0%
Jalen White run for 16 yds to the GASO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
65.0%
JC French pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 6 yds to the GASO 41Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
64.9%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 3 yds to the GASO 44Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
64.8%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
64.9%
JC French run for 2 yds to the GASO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
64.7%
JC French pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 3 yds to the GASO 49Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
64.6%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for 4 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
64.6%
JC French run for 4 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
64.4%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
64.3%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the USA 42Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+10
64.4%
JC French run for 10 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
63.9%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for 19 yds to the USA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
63.7%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 5 yds to the USA 8 for a 1ST down South Alabama Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (Wesley Miller) to the USA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
63.4%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the USA 3Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
63.3%
JC French run for 2 yds to the USA 1Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.6%
David Mbadinga run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 3:5261% → 61%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the USA 32Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
61.2%
PENALTY USA False Start (Jerido,Kenton) 5 yards from USA32 to USA27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
60.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 14 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
60.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 5 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
60.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 6 yds to the GASO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
60.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 15 yds to the GASO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
60.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 11 yds to the GASO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
60.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 23Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
60.4%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
59.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for no gain to the GASO 23Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+41
60.5%
Laith Marjan 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 4:0138% → 40%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
61.7%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GASO 18Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+7
61.6%
JC French pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 7 yds to the GASO 25Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
60.8%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GASO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
60.9%
JC French pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 1 yd to the GASO 28Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+9
60.9%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for 9 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
60.3%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 6 yds to the GASO 43Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-5
59.7%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Arnold,OJ rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GSU47 (Voisin,Jaden) PENALTY GSU Encroachment (Burgess Jr.,Derwin) 5 yards from GSU43 to GSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-2
59.9%
JC French sacked by Courtney McBride Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the GASO 36Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+6
61.0%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 6 yds to the GASO 42Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
60.3%
Alex Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0762% → 61%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
61.6%
PENALTY USA False Start (Carney,Malachi) 5 yards from USA17 to USA12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 15
OWN 12
0
61.5%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+10
61.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 10 yds to the USA 22Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
60.8%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
60.6%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:4843% → 51%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
57.1%
Jalen White run for 3 yds to the GASO 37Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
56.1%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 4 yds to the GASO 41Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+3
55.1%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 3 yds to the GASO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
55.0%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
55.3%
Jalen White run for 9 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
56.7%
JC French run for 2 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
56.4%
JC French run for 3 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
56.0%
JC French run for 3 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
55.7%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+16
56.7%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 16 yds to the USA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
49.1%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 23 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:3352% → 64%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
52.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 13 yds to the GASO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
53.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the GASO 40Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+12
52.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 12 yds to the GASO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
53.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the GASO 19Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+1
52.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the GASO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
52.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the GASO 16Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+11
52.2%
Gio Lopez run for 11 yds to the GASO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
52.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the GASO 2Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
47.6%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio rush left for 1 yard gain to the GSU01 (Gilmore,Davon; Dedman,Reid) PENALTY GSU Illegal Substitution (Rhodes,Justin) 1 yard from GSU02 to GSU01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5343% → 39%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.4%
OJ Arnold run for 1 yd to the GASO 24Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
58.1%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 9 yds to the GASO 33Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
55.7%
JC French run for no gain to the GASO 33Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
61.0%
Alex Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 2:1059% → 58%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
58.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 13 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
59.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 26 yds to the GASO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
62.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the GASO 33Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+12
64.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 12 yds to the GASO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
63.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the GASO 23Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+7
63.8%
Gio Lopez run for 7 yds to the GASO 16Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 1
OPP 12
-5
60.7%
PENALTY USA False Start 5 yards from GSU12 to GSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+4
61.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 4 yds to the GASO 12Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
58.4%
Laith Marjan 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
57.4%
J. French takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 4:3659% → 66%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
58.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 16 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+22
61.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 22 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
62.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
63.3%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+2
61.8%
Gio Lopez run for 2 yds to the GASO 29Similar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+28
59.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 28 yds to the GASO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the GASO 1Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
62.7%
PENALTY USA False Start (Carney,Malachi) 5 yards from GSU01 to GSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
62.7%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio pass complete short right to Thomas-Jones,DJ caught at GSU03, for 5 yards to the GSU01, out of bounds at GSU01 PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Voisin,Devin) 15 yards from GSU06 to GSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
-10
62.0%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GASO 30Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 30
+5
60.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the GASO 25Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 25
+19
58.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 19 yds to the GASO 6Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
66.2%
Laith Marjan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1837% → 36%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
62.8%
Jalen White run for 5 yds to the GASO 37Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
61.5%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+1
62.9%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the GASO 38Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
64.0%
Alex Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:3264% → 82%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
64.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 11 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
64.8%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio pass incomplete deep middle to Webb,Jeremiah thrown to GSU21 broken up by Gamble,Chance PENALTY GSU Roughing The Passer (Pikes,Troy) 15 yards from USA32 to USA47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
67.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
67.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Rod Gibbs for 4 yds to the GASO 47Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+17
67.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 17 yds to the GASO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
69.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 7 yds to the GASO 23Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
69.4%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+6
68.0%
Gio Lopez run for 6 yds to the GASO 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
69.4%
(05:27) PENALTY USA False Start (Webb,Jeremiah) 5 yards from GSU17 to GSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+22
81.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 22 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:0020% → 22%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
79.6%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 18 yds to the GASO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
78.3%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 3
50
+1
76.5%
OJ Arnold run for 1 yd to the USA 49Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
77.1%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for no gain to the USA 49Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-3
78.4%
JC French sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the GASO 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:0985% → 96%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
85.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 17 yds to the GASO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
85.4%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+16
85.3%
Gio Lopez run for 16 yds to the GASO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
85.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the GASO 12Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
85.6%
Gio Lopez run for no gain to the GASO 12Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
96.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 12 yds for a TD Devin Voisin fumbled, recovered by USA Jamaal Pritchett for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 0:0711% → 20%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
89.1%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the USA 45Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+45
79.6%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 45 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:2622% → 43%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
77.9%
Jalen White run for 19 yds to the USA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.5%
Jalen White run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0973% → 67%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
72.8%
PENALTY USA False Start (Jerido,Kenton) 5 yards from USA40 to USA35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+3
69.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+2
69.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 2 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
69.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
66.7%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Josh Dallas at the GASO 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:4132% → 72%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
67.6%
Jalen White run for 5 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
66.7%
JC French pass complete to Jalen White for 1 yd to the GASO 32Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+3
68.4%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for 3 yds to the GASO 35Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+1
69.7%
JC French run for 1 yd to the GASO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
67.0%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 3 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST down South Alabama Penalty, Targeting (Reggie Neely) to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
62.3%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 8 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
61.6%
Dexter Williams II pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+16
62.8%
OJ Arnold run for 16 yds to the USA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
59.6%
Dalen Cobb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
27.9%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 22 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:1345% → 44%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
44.9%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio rush right for 3 yards gain to the USA28 (Stampley II,Marc; Smith,Dorrian) PENALTY USA Holding (Preciado,Malachi) 10 yards from USA25 to USA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
44.4%
Gio Lopez pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2365% → 64%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
34.9%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the GASO 33Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
33.2%
Dexter Williams II pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+1
34.8%
Dexter Williams II run for 1 yd to the GASO 34Similar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 10
OWN 34
-5
35.9%
PENALTY GSU False Start (Hammonds,Jacob) 5 yards from GSU34 to GSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
36.1%
Alex Smith punt for 41 yds , Jamaal Pritchett returns for no gain to the USA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 40 yds · 4:2242% → 17%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
42.2%
Bishop Davenport run for 1 yd to the USA 29Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+22
41.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 22 yds to the GASO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
48.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-10
36.1%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Davenport,Bishop pass incomplete short middle to Pritchett,Jamaal thrown to GSU40 PENALTY USA Holding (Preciado,Malachi) 10 yards from USA49 to USA39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 22
OWN 39
+7
33.8%
Bishop Davenport run for 7 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+17
21.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 17 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
27.3%
Bishop Davenport run for 6 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
29.1%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+11
25.1%
Bishop Davenport run for 11 yds to the GASO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
26.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the GASO 15Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
27.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the GASO 16Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
-7
25.4%
Bishop Davenport sacked by Da'Shawn Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the GASO 23Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 13
OPP 23
-9
17.2%
Bishop Davenport sacked by Davon Gilmore for a loss of 9 yards to the GASO 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 6 yds · 1:4891% → 96%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
9.3%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the GASO 33Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
9.4%
PENALTY USA Delay Of Game 5 yards from GSU33 to GSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+4
7.9%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GASO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
7.7%
Dexter Williams II run for 4 yds to the GASO 38 Dexter Williams II fumbled, recovered by GASO Jalen WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+2
6.0%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GASO 36Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 16
OWN 36
+2
4.6%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GASO 38Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
3.7%
Alex Smith punt for 44 yds , Jamaal Pritchett returns for no gain to the USA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:14
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 22 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
-31.7
TD · Q4 14:09
Jalen White run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
-24.6
TD · Q4 8:14
Timeout South Alabama, clock 08:14
+17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com