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TXST

Texas State 45 at South Alabama 38

USA
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2024 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:06 · Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 32 yds, downed at the TXST 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.5Pregame prior−3.9Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:06: Gio Lopez run for 8 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +20.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:33: Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +16.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:44: Fluff Bothwell run for 29 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +30.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:39: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +25.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:27: Gio Lopez pass intercepted Mannie Nunnery return for 60 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +28.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 3:45USA 4th & 11 at USA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:06USA 4th & 2 at USA 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:35USA 4th & 1 at TXST 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−3.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:54TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−3.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:14TXST 4th & 9 at USA 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:52USA 4th & 17 at USA 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−5.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:54USA 4th & 6 at USA 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:29TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:49TXST 4th & 7 at USA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−13.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:23TXST 4th & 1 at USA 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−5.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−6.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:50USA 4th & 9 at TXST 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:34USA 4th & 1 at TXST 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−0.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:34USA 4th & 3 at TXST 3, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:53TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:38USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:15USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:39TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:59TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:59USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:06USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:33TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:44USA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:39TXST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:27TXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0556% → 56%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
44.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
44.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 8 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
44.8%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Courtney McBride Jr. and Jordan Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+5
45.0%
(13:14) MCCLOUD, Jordan pass to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Jaden thrown to the TSU44, clock 13:10. PENALTY USA Offsides on STRONG JR., Maurice enforced 5 yards from the TSU35 to the TSU40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
44.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+45
45.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 45 yds to the USA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
43.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 9 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1444% → 47%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.1%
Gio Lopez run for no gain to the USA 25Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
43.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 24Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+17
43.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 17 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
43.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 8 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+51
46.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 51 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0054% → 51%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 4 yds to the TXST 24Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
46.2%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 24Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-33
49.2%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Blayne Myrick return for 33 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3551% → 55%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
49.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
49.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 5 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
49.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+24
49.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 24 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
49.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 22 yds to the USA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
49.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
44.8%
Brad Jackson run for 11 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5347% → 47%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.7%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 24Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
46.8%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
46.6%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6INT
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:1555% → 59%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
45.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+7
45.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
44.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 9 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
43.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
43.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 31 yds to the USA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
42.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 21Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+3
42.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the USA 18Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+15
43.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 15 yds to the USA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
41.0%
Brad Jackson run for no gain to the USA 3Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
41.0%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted, touchback. Jaden Voisin return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1046% → 45%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
45.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 17Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
45.7%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
44.9%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
44.7%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 32 yds, downed at the TXST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:5758% → 59%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
41.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
41.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+8
40.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 8 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
40.5%
Texas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Beau Sparks) to the TXST 47Similar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 18
OWN 47
+5
41.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+12
44.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 12 yds to the USA 36Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
44.6%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the USA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
40.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 33 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5943% → 46%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 5 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
43.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the USA 30Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
44.4%
Gio Lopez run for 16 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
46.3%
(07:10) QB Keeper LOPEZ, Gio rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the USA48 (NEAL, James), clock 07:06. PENALTY Before the snap, USA Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the USA46 to the USA41. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
45.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+5
45.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 5 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+9
44.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
36.9%
Gio Lopez run for 1 yd to the TXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
38.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 26 yds to the TXST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
38.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the TXST 17Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
46.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 17 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5852% → 49%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
47.8%
Texas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Yards) to the TXST 5Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+2
48.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 7Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 13
OWN 7
0
49.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 13
OWN 7
0
50.9%
Lars Rau punt for 18 yds, downed at the TXST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:3946% → 67%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
46.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 17 yds to the TXST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
67.2%
Gio Lopez run for 8 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:0035% → 42%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
64.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
56.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-10
56.3%
(01:35) PARE, Lincoln rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the USA40 (MYRICK, Blayne;SCRUGGS, Jordan), clock 01:31. PENALTY TSU Holding on TODD, Chayse enforced 10 yards from the USA44 to the TSU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 17
OWN 46
0
59.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+8
60.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 8 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
44.8%
David Nunez punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 14Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
58.1%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:1259% → 57%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 15
OWN 9
-2
58.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 7Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 17
OWN 7
+1
58.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 8Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 16
OWN 8
-1
57.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 7Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 17
OWN 7
0
56.6%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 40 yds, downed at the USA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:3258% → 57%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
41.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 14 yds to the USA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
41.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
41.8%
(00:27) MCCLOUD, Jordan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILSON, Kole thrown to the USA0, clock 00:23. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on WALLACE, JR., Christopher enforced 15 yards to the USA18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
42.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
42.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the USA 14Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+4
43.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 4 yds to the USA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0664% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
64.3%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (Tyler Thomas) to the USA 20Similar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
64.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
64.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 5 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
64.0%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
62.6%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the TXST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1837% → 35%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
63.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 34Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
63.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+6
65.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Titus Lyons for 6 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
65.1%
Lars Rau punt for 10 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
50
-4
68.2%
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Darius Jackson return for 4 yds to the TXST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:3137% → 55%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
63.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 38Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
62.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
62.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
62.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 16 yds to the USA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
61.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+13
60.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 13 yds to the USA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
59.8%
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds to the USA 20Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+4
60.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the USA 16Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+11
62.2%
Jordan McCloud run for 11 yds to the USA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
60.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the USA 2Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the USA 1Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:0653% → 56%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
52.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 11 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
54.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-11
56.3%
Gio Lopez sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the USA 29 Gio Lopez fumbled, recovered by TXST Terry Webb , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:2458% → 62%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
42.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the USA 26Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-1
42.0%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 27Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+9
44.5%
(04:14) MCCLOUD, Jordan pass to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Jaden thrown to the USA18, clock 04:10. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on WEBB JR., Lardarius enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards to the USA18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
41.9%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 21Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 13
OPP 21
-15
42.6%
Texas State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaden Williams) to the USA 36Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 28
OPP 36
+5
45.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 5 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 23
OPP 31
+16
47.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 16 yds to the USA 15Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
38.5%
Mason Shipley 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:0436% → 70%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
36.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 15 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+31
39.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 31 yds to the TXST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
69.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 29 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:5638% → 71%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
61.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 14 yds to the TXST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
61.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 15 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
59.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 40Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+14
60.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 14 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
56.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
55.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
56.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the USA 37Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
59.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
55.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the USA 26Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+7
54.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the USA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
54.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the USA 18Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
28.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23INT TD
9 plays · 35 yds · 4:1135% → 12%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
35.4%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamaal Pritchett) to the USA 26Similar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 9
OWN 26
+10
35.9%
Gio Lopez run for 10 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
33.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 12 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
36.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 4 yards to the USA 44Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+10
34.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 10 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
38.9%
Gio Lopez run for 5 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
40.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 1 yd to the TXST 40Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-60
11.5%
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Mannie Nunnery return for 60 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24FG
19 plays · 74 yds · 5:4612% → 9%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
12.4%
Bishop Davenport run for 13 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
8.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 15 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
8.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for no gain to the TXST 49Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
7.9%
Bishop Davenport run for 1 yd to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
5.1%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+10
4.5%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 10 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
4.7%
(04:26) DAVENPORT, Bishop pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WEBB, Jeremiah thrown to the TSU7, clock 04:21. PENALTY TSU Pass Interference on MILLS, Chris enforced 15 yards to the TSU23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
6.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 4 yds to the TXST 19Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+5
8.0%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 5 yds to the TXST 14Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
5.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for no gain to the TXST 14Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+5
3.7%
Bishop Davenport run for 5 yds to the TXST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
4.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 6 yds to the TXST 3Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
4.8%
Bishop Davenport run for no gain to the TXST 3Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
4.1%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
8.9%
Laith Marjan 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2497% → 98%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
3.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+3
2.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+7
2.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the USA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
2.1%
(00:43) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at USA33 (team loss of 2), clock 00:40.Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 12
OPP 33
-2
2.1%
(00:06) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at USA35 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:44
Fluff Bothwell run for 29 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
+30.1
TD · Q4 7:27
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Mannie Nunnery return for 60 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-28.4
TD · Q4 11:39
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-25.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com