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TROY

Troy 9 at South Alabama 25

USA
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 15, 2024 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:40 · Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense+0.1Pregame prior+23.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:10: Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 24 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +4.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:34: Gio Lopez 49 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick) — USA win probability +6.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:18: Scott Taylor Renfroe 36 Yd Field Goal — TROY win probability +4.1 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:34: Laith Marjan 42 Yd Field Goal — USA win probability +4.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 8:34: Timeout South Alabama, clock 08:34 — TROY win probability +3.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 11TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:24USA 4th & 11 at USA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:40USA 4th & 3 at USA 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:40USA 4th & 3 at USA 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:26TROY 4th & 2 at USA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:18USA 4th & 10 at TROY 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:01TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:01TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:07USA 4th & 6 at USA 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:18TROY 4th & 8 at USA 18, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:09TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 45, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:34USA 4th & 16 at TROY 24, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−1.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:40TROY 4th & 8 at USA 29, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−4.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:40TROY 4th & 8 at USA 29, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−4.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:35USA 4th & 5 at USA 34, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:50USA 4th & 12 at TROY 24, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−2.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:55USA 4th & 4 at TROY 42, up 22
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:27TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 19, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:34USA 4th & 6 at TROY 38, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:48TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 20, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:06USA 4th & 11 at USA 34, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TROY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 9:10USA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 2:35TROY Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2976% → 75%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.7%
Gio Lopez run for no gain to the USA 25Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-3
75.5%
Gio Lopez sacked by Julian Peterson for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 24Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+14
75.3%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 47 , Devonte Ross returns for 14 yds to the USA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0225% → 25%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
75.2%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
75.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the USA 44Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-9
74.8%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Dalton Hughes for a loss of 9 yards to the TROY 47Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
75.0%
Robert Cole punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2775% → 74%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
74.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 14Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+15
74.7%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio pass incomplete deep left to Pritchett,Jamaal thrown to TRO42 PENALTY TRO Pass Interference (Powell,Cecil) 15 yards from USA14 to USA29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
74.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the USA 30Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-2
74.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 28Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+8
74.2%
Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the USA 36Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
73.9%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 21 ydsSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
73.9%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2827% → 27%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
73.4%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
73.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Gerald Green for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 3
50
+1
73.1%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 1 yd to the USA 49Similar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
73.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 4:5874% → 73%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
74.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 3 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-10
74.3%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio rush left for 0 yards to the TRO48 (Stringer,Jordan; Cattledge,Steven) PENALTY USA Holding (Gibbs,Rod) 10 yards from TRO48 to USA42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 17
OWN 42
0
73.5%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+29
73.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 29 yds to the TROY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
74.3%
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the TROY 26Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+6
74.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the TROY 20Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
73.8%
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the TROY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
74.1%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TROY 24Similar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 17
OPP 24
+10
74.0%
Gio Lopez run for 10 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+3
74.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the TROY 17Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
73.6%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+36
73.4%
Laith Marjan 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:0226% → 26%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
73.6%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the TROY 27Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
73.6%
Gerald Green run for no gain to the TROY 27Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
74.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+23
74.4%
Robert Cole punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Jamaal Pritchett returns for 23 yds to the 50 yard line South Alabama Penalty, Illegal Block (Amarion Fortenberry) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+23
74.4%
Robert Cole punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 15 , Jamaal Pritchett returns for 23 yds to the 50 yard line South Alabama Penalty, Illegal Block (Amarion Fortenberry) to the USA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:5373% → 72%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
72.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the USA 18Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
72.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 6 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+8
72.5%
Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
72.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 7 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+5
73.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 5 yds to the USA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
73.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
73.6%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-5
72.6%
PENALTY USA False Start (Jerido,Kenton) 5 yards from USA46 to USA41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+7
72.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 7 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
72.0%
Jack Martin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1527% → 27%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
73.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-4
73.3%
(11:03) PENALTY TRO False Start (Parker,Landon) 4 yards from TRO09 to TRO05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 14
OWN 5
+6
73.2%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the TROY 11Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
73.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:3574% → 78%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
74.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the TROY 24Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+24
78.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 24 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10SF
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:2722% → 21%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-9
78.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Mojo Dortch for a loss of 9 yards to the TROY 1Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 19
OWN 1
+4
79.3%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the TROY 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:3783% → 90%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
83.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 4 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
83.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 8 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
84.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Anthony Eager for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 40Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+11
84.1%
Gio Lopez run for 11 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+49
90.3%
Gio Lopez 49 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12FG
19 plays · 57 yds · 4:1012% → 13%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 10 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
87.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 6 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
87.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 7 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
87.5%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-11
87.0%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST down Troy Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Damien Taylor) to the TROY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
87.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
87.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 10 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
86.6%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+8
86.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
85.9%
(01:20) Shotgun Caldwell,Matthew pass incomplete deep left to Parker,Landon thrown to USA11 PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Neely,Reggie) 15 yards from USA35 to USA20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-7
85.7%
Matthew Caldwell sacked by Courtney McBride Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the USA 27Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 17
OPP 27
0
87.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 17
OPP 27
+9
87.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 9 yds to the USA 18Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
86.8%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.5%
Kneel down by South Alabama at USA24 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3214% → 12%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
85.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 7 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
85.2%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+6
85.5%
Matthew Caldwell run for 6 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
85.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
85.9%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-3
86.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Gerald Green for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 45Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
87.6%
Robert Cole punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:2989% → 95%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
88.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+57
88.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Javon Ivory for 57 yds to the TROY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
90.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the TROY 20Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+5
90.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the TROY 15Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-9
90.4%
Gio Lopez sacked by Phillip Lee for a loss of 9 yards to the TROY 24Similar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 16
OPP 24
+42
94.6%
Laith Marjan 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 2:499% → 8%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
91.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 7 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
91.1%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
91.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST down South Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Lardarius Webb Jr.) to the USA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
90.8%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the USA 30Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+1
91.6%
Matthew Caldwell run for 1 yd to the USA 29Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 8
OPP 29
0
91.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 8
OPP 29
0
91.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5797% → 97%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.9%
Jamaal Pritchett run for 3 yds to the USA 32Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
96.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 1 yd to the USA 33Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+1
97.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 1 yd to the USA 34Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 5
OWN 34
+20
96.9%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TROY 40 , Devonte Ross returns for 20 yds to the TROY 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:407% → 7%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
92.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 3 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
93.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass intercepted Lardarius Webb Jr. return for no gain to the TROY 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4498% → 99%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-13
97.5%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 23
OPP 35
+15
97.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 15 yds to the TROY 20Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-4
97.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 24Similar
Q3 0:50
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
98.8%
Laith Marjan 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20INT
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:452% → 2%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 13 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
98.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
98.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:5199% → 100%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the USA 19Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
99.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the USA 21Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+12
99.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 12 yds to the USA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
99.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 19 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.6%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
99.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 49Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+7
99.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to PJ Martin for 7 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
99.6%
Jack Martin punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:221% → 1%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
99.0%
Matthew Caldwell sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the TROY 15Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+4
99.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 4 yds to the TROY 19Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
99.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
99.1%
Robert Cole punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.6%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
99.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+1
99.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the TROY 38Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+6
99.7%
Jack Martin punt for 28 yds , Devonte Ross returns for 6 yds to the TROY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:391% → 1%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.3%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the TROY 20Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Robert Cole punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the USA 37Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
99.7%
PENALTY USA False Start (Carney,Malachi) 5 yards from USA37 to USA32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+3
99.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the USA 34Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:161% → 3%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
99.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Brody Dalton for 18 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.5%
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+31
99.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 16 yds to the USA 26 for a 1ST down South Alabama Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Amarion Fortenberry) to the USA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
96.6%
Devonte Ross 11 Yd pass from Matthew Caldwell (Scott Taylor Renfroe PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+22
99.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 22 yds to the TROY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the TROY 19Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+3
99.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the TROY 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:34
Gio Lopez 49 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)
+6.2
TD · Q2 9:10
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 24 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
+4.2
FG · Q3 8:34
Laith Marjan 42 Yd Field Goal
+4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com