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USA

South Alabama 48 at App State 14

APP
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 19, 2024 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:53 · Jack Martin punt for 47 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense−33.2Score differential−18.3Pregame prior+12.0Garbage-time factor−9.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:10: Fluff Bothwell run for 22 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +2.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:30: Gio Lopez run for 31 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +12.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:30: Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +8.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:00: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 47 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +25.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:08: Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 18 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan PAT MISSED) — USA win probability +8.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 9USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:16APP 4th & 8 at APP 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:16APP 4th & 7 at USA 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:19APP 4th & 19 at USA 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:01USA 4th & 1 at USA 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.6%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:44APP 4th & 9 at APP 36, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:53USA 4th & 2 at APP 47, up 28
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:39APP 4th & 6 at APP 47, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:39APP 4th & 22 at APP 30, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:25USA 4th & 10 at USA 27, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:00APP 4th & 9 at USA 14, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:44USA 4th & 13 at USA 44, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:15APP 4th & 5 at APP 24, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:58APP 4th & 12 at USA 12, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:59USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:10USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:30USA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:30USA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:00APP Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:08USA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:35USA Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:15USA Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:52APP Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5327% → 29%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 26Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+50
72.9%
Gio Lopez run for 50 yds to the APP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
72.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 3 yds to the APP 21Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+10
72.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 10 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
72.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 1 yd to the APP 10Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
71.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 10 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2371% → 70%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
71.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 6 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+6
71.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 6 yds to the APP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
70.9%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the APP 32Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
70.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 3 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
70.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+21
69.9%
Conner Maynard punt for 46 yds , Jamaal Pritchett returns for 21 yds to the USA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:0630% → 35%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
69.7%
PENALTY USA False Start (Carney,Malachi) 5 yards from USA40 to USA35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 15
OWN 35
0
69.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+1
69.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the USA 36Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+15
69.6%
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio pass incomplete deep left to Voisin,Devin thrown to App37 PENALTY App Pass Interference (Cole,Avarion) 15 yards from USA36 to App49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
68.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 20 yds to the APP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
68.4%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
68.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 7 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+22
65.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 22 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:2666% → 63%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
66.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 7 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
66.2%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+12
65.4%
Ahmani Marshall run for 12 yds to the APP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
65.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 14 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
65.1%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
64.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the USA 42Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
63.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
62.7%
Conner Maynard punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:5039% → 43%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
61.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 10Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+13
60.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 13 yds to the USA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
60.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 6 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+6
59.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
58.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 6 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
57.5%
Gio Lopez sacked by Santana Hopper for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 42 Gio Lopez fumbled, recovered by APP Shawn Collins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 1:4960% → 57%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
59.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
59.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 10 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
60.0%
PENALTY App False Start (Hollifield,Jack) 5 yards from USA32 to USA37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 15
OPP 37
-10
59.7%
(14:53) Shotgun Roberts,Kanye rush right for 16 yards gain to the USA21 (Miller,Wesley) PENALTY App Holding (Shrader,Thomas) 10 yards from USA37 to USA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 25
OPP 47
+6
58.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 6 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 19
OPP 41
0
58.4%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the USA 41Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 19
OPP 41
0
57.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 19
OPP 41
0
56.8%
Conner Maynard punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7TD
17 plays · 95 yds · 7:3845% → 68%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-4
55.3%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-4 Yards) to the USA 3Similar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+10
54.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 10 yds to the USA 13Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+1
54.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the USA 14Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+12
53.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for 12 yds to the USA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
51.7%
Gio Lopez run for no gain to the USA 26Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
51.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 9 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
50.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for no gain to the USA 35Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+19
48.8%
Gio Lopez run for 19 yds to the APP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
46.3%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
46.3%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio rush left for 2 yards gain to the App44, out of bounds at App44 PENALTY USA Illegal Formation (Davis,Jordan) 5 yards from App46 to USA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+12
46.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 12 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+6
44.4%
Gio Lopez run for 6 yds to the APP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
43.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+31
31.7%
Gio Lopez run for 31 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8INT
11 plays · 68 yds · 2:4332% → 29%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
31.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 13 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
32.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 14 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
32.5%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass complete short right to Robinson,Kaedin caught at USA42, for 6 yards to the USA42, End Of Play PENALTY App Illegal Touch-Pass (Robinson,Kaedin). NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
32.1%
Kanye Roberts run for 3 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+7
32.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 7 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+26
33.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 26 yds to the USA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
33.8%
Kanye Roberts run for 5 yds to the USA 7Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
28.5%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Jordan Scruggs return for no gain to the APP 4Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 5
OPP 7
-2
28.5%
App State Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Christan Horn) to the APP 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0773% → 81%
Q2 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
26.8%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:399% → 9%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
9.2%
Kanye Roberts run for 1 yd to the APP 36Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
8.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
8.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+29
8.6%
Conner Maynard punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 45 , Jamaal Pritchett returns for 29 yds to the USA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4184% → 88%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
16.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
50
+4
14.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 4 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
13.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the APP 47Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
11.9%
Jack Martin punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:395% → 30%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
5.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 12 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
5.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
4.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 14 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
5.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
5.0%
Joey Aguilar run for 2 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+47
30.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 47 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1427% → 26%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
27.2%
South Alabama Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
28.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 2 yds to the APP 45Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+1
27.9%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the APP 46Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+1
27.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 1 yd to the APP 47Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
25.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:2183% → 93%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
16.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 13 yds to the APP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
15.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 16 yds to the APP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
6.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 18 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:215% → 4%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
5.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 4 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
4.7%
Maquel Haywood run for 13 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
4.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the APP 43Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-13
4.4%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Courtney McBride Jr. for a loss of 13 yards to the APP 30Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 22
OWN 30
0
3.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
3.8%
Conner Maynard punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:0495% → 98%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
5.0%
PENALTY USA False Start (Davis,Jordan) 5 yards from USA33 to USA28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+17
4.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 17 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
4.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
4.1%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-5
4.2%
PENALTY USA False Start (Preciado,Malachi) 5 yards from USA49 to USA44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+22
4.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 22 yds to the APP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
3.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 20 yds to the APP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
2.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 14 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
1.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 15 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
1.3%
Maquel Haywood run for 15 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
1.3%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete deep right to Jackson,Makai thrown to USA19 PENALTY USA Roughing The Passer (Norman,Jordan) 15 yards from USA45 to USA30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
1.3%
Maquel Haywood run for 11 yds to the USA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
1.2%
run for 8 yds to the USA 27 fumbled, recovered by USA Darius McKenzieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2898% → 98%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
1.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
1.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
1.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
2.4%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APP 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+49
1.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 49 yds to the USA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
1.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the USA 14Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
0.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
0.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+8
0.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 8 yds to the USA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 5:0998% → 99%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
1.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 10 yds to the USA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
1.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+5
1.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 5 yds to the USA 16Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+18
1.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 3 yds to the USA 19 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Brendan Harrington) to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
1.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 13 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
0.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+4
0.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+2
0.6%
Gio Lopez run for 2 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
0.7%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
0.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
0.2%
Kanye Roberts run for 6 yds to the APP 25Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-1
0.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 24Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+17
0.1%
Conner Maynard punt for 48 yds , Jamaal Pritchett returns for 17 yds to the USA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 5:49100% → 100%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
0.3%
Iverson Celestine run for 6 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
0.3%
Iverson Celestine run for no gain to the APP 49Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+4
0.3%
Iverson Celestine run for 4 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
0.2%
Bishop Davenport run for 14 yds to the APP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
0.2%
PJ Martin run for 1 yd to the APP 30Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
0.2%
PJ Martin run for 4 yds to the APP 26Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+13
0.2%
Bishop Davenport run for 13 yds to the APP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
0.2%
Bishop Davenport run for 7 yds to the APP 6Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
0.1%
Iverson Celestine run for 6 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 11 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
0.0%
Anderson Castle run for 11 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
0.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 7
50
0
0.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 7
50
+15
0.0%
Anderson Castle run for 15 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
0.0%
Anderson Castle run for 14 yds to the USA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
0.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 13 yds to the USA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
0.0%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the USA 12Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
0.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
0.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
0
0.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
0.0%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete short middle to Hetzel,Michael thrown to USA00 PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Harris,Mike) 10 yards from USA12 to USA02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24Uncategorized
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.1%
Kneel down by South Alabama at USA24 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
0.1%
Kneel down by South Alabama at USA23 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 47 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+25.3
TD · Q2 5:30
Gio Lopez run for 31 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
-12
TD · Q3 11:08
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 18 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan PAT MISSED)
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com