Oklahoma

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense−0.018th
  Defense−0.0190th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.0%17th
  Defense35.6%97th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.136th
  Defense+1.2459th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0118th
  Defense−0.1099th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense0.0010th
  Defense+0.1453rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.0%23rd
  Defense40.2%96th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense26.9%19th
  Defense28.0%77th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9941st
  Defense2.5592nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.7%47th
  Defense21.2%83rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.9%23rd
  Defense18.3%73rd

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oklahoma allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   TEM
2. W
   HOU
3. W
   TULN
4. L
   TENN
5. W
   AUB
6. L
   TEX
7. L
   SC
8. L
   MISS
9. W
   ME
10. L
    MIZ
11. W
    ALA
12. L
    LSU
13. L
    NAVY

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oklahoma.

Players, 2024

1. Jackson ArnoldQB244 plays · +0.173 pts/play · 102nd of 232 QBs
   0.79WAR0.29 to 1.25
2. Michael Hawkins Jr.QB138 plays · +0.213 pts/play · 126th of 232 QBs
   0.55WAR0.24 to 0.82
3. Jovantae BarnesRB87 plays · +0.113 pts/play · 163rd of 373 RBs
   0.18WAR0.14 to 0.22
4. Luke ElzingaP46 plays · +0.156 pts/play · 15th of 106 punters
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.19
5. Gavin SawchukRB41 plays · +0.118 pts/play · 257th of 373 RBs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.12
6. Bauer SharpTE27 plays · +0.099 pts/play · 60th of 221 TEs
   0.05WAR−0.02 to 0.11
7. Deion BurksWR29 plays · +0.092 pts/play · 247th of 452 WRs
   0.05WAR−0.02 to 0.11
8. Jake RobertsTE13 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 87th of 221 TEs
   0.04WAR0.01 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oklahoma's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  9079078th of 131Roster talent: 907, 8th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  2752758th of 131Recruiting: 275, 8th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  39%39%77th of 130Returning production: 39%, 77th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +9.5+9.533rd of 131SP+ rating: +9.5, 33rd of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oklahoma's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.07 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MISSQ4 5:35 4th & 21 at MISS 24, down 12Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.6 pts
2. at NAVYQ4 2:56 4th & 9 at OU 38, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
3. vs TENNQ1 0:33 4th & 1 at TENN 20, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. at NAVYQ3 5:01 4th & 5 at NAVY 45, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
5. vs TEXQ2 4:19 4th & 3 at OU 46, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
6. vs TENNQ3 4:16 4th & 4 at OU 46, down 19Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. vs ALAQ2 8:14 4th & 4 at ALA 11, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. at MISSQ3 8:21 4th & 3 at OU 18, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

96th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oklahoma's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   TEM
2. W

   HOU
3. W

   TULN
4. L

   TENN
5. W

   AUB
6. L

   TEX
7. L

   SC
8. L

   MISS
9. W

   ME
10. L

    MIZ
11. W

    ALA
12. L

    LSU
13. L

    NAVY

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Oklahoma's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.86
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock−0.04
• Other−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.01

Game by game

• TEMW 51-3 vs TEM99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +1
• HOUW 16-12 vs HOU96% → 90%Before kickoff +46 · On the field −6: Scoreboard +10, Timeouts +1
• TULNW 34-19 vs TULN83% → 99%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +21
• TENNL 15-25 vs TENN33% → 4%Before kickoff −17 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −40, Clock −2
• AUBW 27-21 at AUB39% → 90%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +46, Clock +4
• TEXL 3-34 vs TEX12% → 0%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −18
• SCL 9-35 vs SC51% → 0%Before kickoff +1 · On the field −51: Scoreboard −53, Possession & field position −1
• MISSL 14-26 at MISS9% → 2%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −14, Timeouts −1
• MEW 59-14 vs ME98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• MIZL 23-30 at MIZ55% → 7%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −31, Possession & field position −3
• ALAW 24-3 vs ALA16% → 100%Before kickoff −34 · On the field +84: Scoreboard +64, Clock −3
• LSUL 17-37 at LSU36% → 1%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −37, Possession & field position +1
• NAVYL 20-21 at NAVY63% → 6%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −38, Possession & field position −1

Points of win probability, from Oklahoma's side.

Closest call

TCU 31-52 OU (2021) - Oklahoma dropped to a 3.9% win probability before pulling it out.