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OU

Oklahoma 20 at Navy 21

NAVY
2024 · Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Dec 27, 2024 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:16 · Michael Hawkins Jr. run for no gain to the OU 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Home team on offense−13.0Pregame prior−8.4Garbage-time factor−2.5Score differential−6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:49: Blake Horvath 95 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick) — NAVY win probability +19.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 4:34: Blake Horvath 6 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick) — NAVY win probability +33.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:06: Jake Roberts 10 Yd pass from Michael Hawkins Jr. (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — OU win probability +21.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:06: Timeout Navy, clock 00:06 — NAVY win probability +18.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 45 — NAVY win probability +17.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:39NAVY 4th & 10 at OU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:27NAVY 4th & 5 at OU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−3.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:00OU 4th & 3 at OU 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:46OU 4th & 1 at NAVY 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−1.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−7.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:15NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:16OU 4th & 1 at OU 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.2%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:41OU 4th & 16 at OU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:39NAVY 4th & 8 at OU 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:54NAVY 4th & 9 at OU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:01OU 4th & 5 at NAVY 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−2.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:07NAVY 4th & 4 at OU 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.1%−0.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−11.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:06OU 4th & 10 at NAVY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:15NAVY 4th & 3 at OU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−2.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−22.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:56OU 4th & 9 at OU 38, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:47NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 14, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:22OU 4th & 6 at OU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:33OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:56OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:40NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:49NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:34NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−1.7
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:06OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.9 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.3%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1763% → 64%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
36.8%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
36.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Zion Ragins for 5 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
37.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the OU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
37.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+9
37.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 9 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
37.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 9 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+4
37.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
37.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Ivan Carreon for 5 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
36.4%
Gavin Sawchuk 21 Yd Run (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:4137% → 37%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.9%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
36.9%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 27Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+32
36.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 32 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
37.5%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 43Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 12
OPP 43
-5
37.1%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Brent Self) to the OU 48Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+7
37.1%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the OU 41Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
37.3%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Eli HeidenreichSimilar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
36.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 26 yds, downed at the OU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 1:3964% → 67%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
36.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Sam FranklinSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
36.6%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Sam FranklinSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+16
36.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 16 yds to the OU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
36.5%
Hawkins Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Jordan, Jacob, PENALTY NAVY holding (Duhart, Andrew) 10 yards to the OU41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OU.Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
36.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Zion RaginsSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
36.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+56
32.7%
Zion Kearney 56 Yd pass from Michael Hawkins Jr. (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:1834% → 33%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
34.1%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 33Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+37
33.6%
Blake Horvath run for 37 yds to the OU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
34.7%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
34.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 2 yds to the OU 25Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
33.2%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the OU 25Similar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 5
OPP 25
0
32.9%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Eli HeidenreichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5DOWNS
13 plays · 55 yds · 5:3469% → 74%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.3%
Taylor Tatum run for 5 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
31.0%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the OU 33Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
29.0%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
28.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Zion Ragins for 2 yds to the OU 38Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
28.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Zion RaginsSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+5
28.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Zion Ragins for 5 yds to the OU 43Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+28
27.8%
Luke Elzinga pass complete to Woodi Washington for 28 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
26.8%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Justin Reed for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 13
OPP 32
-6
26.6%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 4 yds to the NAVY 28 Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ivan Carreon) to the NAVY 38Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 19
OPP 38
+9
26.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Ivan Carreon for 9 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+9
26.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Ivan Carreon for 9 yds to the NAVY 20Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
26.2%
Xavier Robinson run for no gain to the NAVY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2530% → 29%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
29.6%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-2
29.6%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 22Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
28.9%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Eli HeidenreichSimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
28.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 70 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:4474% → 76%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
25.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Ivan Carreon for 9 yds to the OU 17Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+4
25.3%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 4 yds to the OU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
25.1%
Hawkins Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Ragins, Zion, PENALTY NAVY pass interference (Oniha, Irabonoise) 15 yards to the OU36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OU.Similar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
24.7%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
24.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 6 yds to the OU 45Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
23.6%
Gavin Sawchuk run for no gain to the OU 45Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
24.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for no gain to the OU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:3229% → 39%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
29.3%
Tecza, Alex rush for 1 yard to the OU44, PENALTY OU offside (Ford, Trace) 5 yards to the OU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 5
OPP 40
0
29.3%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the OU 40Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
29.1%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the OU 36Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+21
28.8%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 21 yds to the OU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
29.4%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the OU 14Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
29.2%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the OU 11Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
38.5%
Alex Tecza 11 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:5367% → 67%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
32.7%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the OU 36Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
31.6%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Zion Ragins) to the OU 31Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-2
32.7%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jacob Jordan for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 29Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
32.8%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Zion RaginsSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
33.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5138% → 35%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
37.6%
Eli Heidenreich run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 41Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
36.5%
Eli Heidenreich pass incomplete to Regis VelezSimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+3
35.3%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the OU 38Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
35.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 31 yds, downed at the OU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11END OF HALF
10 plays · 47 yds · 1:3065% → 70%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
34.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the OU 12Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
34.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Zion KearneySimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+9
35.1%
Xavier Robinson run for 9 yds to the OU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
33.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
33.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Zion KearneySimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+12
34.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 12 yds to the OU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
31.8%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Griffen Willis for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 30Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+14
32.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 14 yds to the OU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
30.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 10 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 4:5633% → 32%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.2%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
33.4%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
32.8%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
32.1%
Horvath, Blake rush for 2 yards to the NAVY36, PENALTY OU offside (Lewis, Kip) 5 yards to the NAVY39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
33.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for 9 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
35.6%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
50
0
35.7%
Alex Tecza run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
50
+1
35.0%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the OU 49Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
33.5%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Eli HeidenreichSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
31.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:4969% → 73%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
30.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the OU 25Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
29.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+13
30.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 13 yds to the OU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
28.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the OU 42Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
27.4%
Xavier Robinson run for 4 yds to the OU 46Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
27.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
50
+3
26.5%
Zion Ragins run for 3 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
26.4%
Xavier Robinson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
26.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for no gain to the NAVY 45Similar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
27.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rayuan Lane III at the NAVY 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
2 plays · 96 yds · 1:0631% → 50%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
30.8%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 5Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+95
50.2%
Blake Horvath 95 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the OU 26 Michael Hawkins Jr. fumbled, forced by Colin Ramos, recovered by NAVY Andrew DuhartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16MISSED FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2857% → 53%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
57.3%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Brandon ChatmanSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
57.2%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the OU 26Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+6
55.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the OU 20Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
53.2%
Nathan Kirkwood 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:5353% → 52%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
47.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Zion RaginsSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
47.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 4 yds to the OU 24Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+21
49.0%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Ivan Carreon for 21 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
43.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 44Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-10
45.0%
Hawkins Jr., Michael rush for 56 yards to the NAVY0, PENALTY OU holding (Nwaiwu, Febechi) 10 yards to the OU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 21
OWN 34
+10
48.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Kaden Helms for 10 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+11
47.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 11 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
42.8%
Taylor Tatum run for 1 yd to the NAVY 44Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+10
42.8%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Zion Kearney for 10 yds to the NAVY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
40.9%
Taylor Tatum run for no gain to the NAVY 34Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
41.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for no gain to the NAVY 34Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
43.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Gavin SawchukSimilar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
48.3%
Zach Schmit 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 7:2654% → 91%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
53.6%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+8
57.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
58.2%
Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the OU 47Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+5
59.9%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Isaiah Bryant for 5 yds to the OU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
60.2%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the OU 41Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
60.3%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+10
59.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 10 yds to the OU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
62.2%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+3
62.5%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the OU 24Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+2
60.8%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the OU 22Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+16
57.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 16 yds to the OU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.9%
Blake Horvath 6 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:2915% → 12%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 7 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
82.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 5 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
84.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the OU 38Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
84.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
85.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Jake RobertsSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
87.6%
Luke Elzinga punt for 57 yds, downed at the NAVY 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0292% → 94%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
92.0%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 6Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+5
92.7%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 11Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+3
93.8%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 14Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+13
93.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 54 yds , Peyton Bowen returns for 13 yds to the OU 27 Oklahoma Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the OU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD
18 plays · 65 yds · 1:3211% → 37%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
88.6%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Griffen Willis for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 34Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
91.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 5 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
90.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Jake RobertsSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+7
91.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jake Roberts for 7 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
89.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Ivan Carreon for 5 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
88.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+8
89.0%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Zion Ragins for 8 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
88.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 3 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+14
87.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Ivan Carreon for 14 yds to the NAVY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-7
83.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Kyle Jacob for a loss of 7 yards to the NAVY 31Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 17
OPP 31
0
87.8%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass incomplete to Jacob JordanSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 17
OPP 31
+10
91.1%
Hawkins Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Ragins, Zion, PENALTY NAVY holding (Duhart, Andrew) 10 yards to the NAVY21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OU.Similar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
84.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 11 yds to the NAVY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
63.3%
Jake Roberts 10 Yd pass from Michael Hawkins Jr. (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
94.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:34
Blake Horvath 6 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)
+33.2
TD · Q4 0:06
Jake Roberts 10 Yd pass from Michael Hawkins Jr. (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-21.1
TD · Q3 3:49
Blake Horvath 95 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)
+19.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com