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HOU

Houston 12 at Oklahoma 16

OU
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:42 · Luke Elzinga punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior+40.2Home team on offense+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.4Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:28: Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jake Roberts for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK) — OU win probability +1.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Joseph Kim 44 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +2.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:15: Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 44 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — HOU win probability +7.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:22: Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 4 yds to the OU 25 — OU win probability +5.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:38: Timeout Houston, clock 01:38 — OU win probability +15.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:05OU 4th & 10 at OU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:29HOU 4th & 20 at OU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:42OU 4th & 7 at OU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:39HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:53HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:10OU 4th & 14 at HOU 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    92.5%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:46HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:30OU 4th & 11 at HOU 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:42HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 13, down 11
    Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:17OU 4th & 10 at HOU 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:45HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.4%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:28HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 27, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:14OU 4th & 9 at OU 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−2.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:41OU 4th & 6 at HOU 28, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−10.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:57HOU 4th & 9 at OU 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:46OU 4th & 11 at OU 44, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−3.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:29OU 4th & 23 at OU 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:07HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.9%−8.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HOU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 12:59OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:28OU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:15HOU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4696% → 95%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
95.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for a loss of 6 yards to the OU 19Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
95.4%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the OU 20Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
95.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 5 yds to the OU 25Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+65
95.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 54 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for no gain to the HOU 10 Mekhi Mews fumbled, recovered by HOU Lewis CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
95.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 10 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 8:185% → 6%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
95.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 1 yd to the HOU 11Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+9
95.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 9 yds to the HOU 20Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+9
95.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Maliq Carr for 9 yds to the HOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
94.9%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
94.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+10
94.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jonah Wilson for 10 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
94.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 8 yds to the OU 37Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+1
94.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the OU 36Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+21
94.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 21 yds to the OU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+1
94.0%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the OU 21Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 16
OPP 21
+1
93.9%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the OU 20Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 15
OPP 20
-5
94.0%
Donovan Smith sacked by Damonic Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 25Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 20
OPP 25
+43
93.7%
Joseph Kim 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3393% → 93%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
93.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 7 yds to the OU 22Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+9
93.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 9 yds to the OU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
93.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
93.2%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
93.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
92.9%
Luke Elzinga punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:557% → 7%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
93.1%
J'Marion Burnette run for 2 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
92.9%
J'Marion Burnette run for 1 yd to the HOU 32Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+15
92.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 15 yds to the HOU 37Similar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
92.7%
Liam Dougherty punt for 42 yds , Billy Bowman Jr. returns for no gain to the OU 19 Billy Bowman Jr. fumbled, recovered by HOU Billy BowmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:0493% → 94%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
92.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 2 yds to the OU 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+13
92.3%
Jovantae Barnes run for 13 yds to the OU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+33
92.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 33 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
92.8%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+11
92.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 11 yds to the HOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
92.6%
Jackson Arnold run for 6 yds to the HOU 13Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+2
92.5%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the HOU 11Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+11
93.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jake Roberts for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:296% → 6%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Parker Jenkins run for no gain to the HOU 25Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.7%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the HOU 26Similar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+20
93.7%
Liam Dougherty punt for 53 yds , Peyton Bowen returns for 20 yds to the OU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3494% → 93%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
93.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 4 yds to the OU 45Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
93.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the OU 46Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+15
93.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 15 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for no gain to the HOU 39Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-4
93.7%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Keith Cooper Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 43Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 14
OPP 43
0
93.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
92.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:157% → 6%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
93.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 7 yds to the HOU 17Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+4
93.2%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
93.1%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 5 yds to the HOU 26Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
92.8%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 27Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
92.9%
Stacy Sneed run for no gain to the HOU 27Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+4
93.6%
Liam Dougherty punt for 38 yds , Peyton Bowen returns for 4 yds to the OU 39 Peyton Bowen fumbled, recovered by HOU Peyton BowenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:5793% → 93%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
93.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Zion Ragins for 14 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.2%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
93.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 1 yd to the HOU 48Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
92.9%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 11
OPP 48
+1
92.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 45 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 1 yd to the HOU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:417% → 7%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
93.4%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the HOU 5Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+1
93.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the HOU 6Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+7
93.4%
Stacy Sneed run for 7 yds to the HOU 13Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
93.4%
Liam Dougherty punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HOU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2094% → 93%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
94.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
93.8%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
93.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:097% → 11%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
92.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the HOU 25Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+16
92.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 16 yds to the HOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
92.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 23 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
91.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 7 yds to the OU 29Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
91.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 4 yds to the OU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+44
89.0%
Joseph Kim 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:349% → 17%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jayden York for 7 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
90.1%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the HOU 33Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
90.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 8 yds to the HOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
89.9%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
82.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 44 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15INT
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:1585% → 86%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
85.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 8 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 17
OWN 28
+7
84.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 7 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
84.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jake Roberts for 12 yds to the OU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
85.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for no gain to the OU 47Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
85.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 46Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+13
83.5%
Jackson Arnold run for 13 yds to the HOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.5%
Jackson Arnold pass intercepted Jeremiah Wilson return for no gain to the HOU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
14 plays · 20 yds · 7:1817% → 20%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
83.1%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 8 yds to the HOU 15Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+2
82.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 2 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
81.9%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 5 yds to the HOU 22Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
81.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 4 yds to the HOU 26Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 1
OWN 26
0
80.9%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the HOU 26Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+1
81.9%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the HOU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
79.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 3 yds to the HOU 24Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+4
80.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 4 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+11
79.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 11 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 23
OWN 14
+1
80.1%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the HOU 15Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-11
77.7%
Donovan Smith sacked by Gracen Halton for a loss of 11 yards to the HOU 19Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 21
OWN 19
0
78.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 21
OWN 19
+8
79.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 8 yds to the HOU 27Similar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
79.6%
Liam Dougherty punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Billy Bowman Jr. at the OU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0379% → 76%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
78.5%
Taylor Tatum run for 6 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-5
80.2%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Michael Batton for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 34Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
76.9%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
75.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 41 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for no gain to the HOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:0524% → 23%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
75.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the HOU 22Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+10
75.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 10 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
76.6%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2781% → 78%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
80.8%
Jovantae Barnes run for 1 yd to the HOU 33Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
80.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+5
78.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 5 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
77.8%
Tyler Keltner 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 4:3726% → 30%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
73.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+7
73.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Devan Williams for 7 yds to the HOU 37Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
71.3%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
69.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 11 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
68.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 7 yds to the OU 42Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+1
66.3%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 1 yd to the OU 43Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
65.8%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for no gain to the OU 43Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
70.3%
Liam Dougherty punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Billy Bowman Jr. at the OU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 6:0272% → 78%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
72.2%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the OU 12Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
70.9%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+9
69.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 9 yds to the OU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
75.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 4 yds to the OU 25Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
74.7%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+5
72.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 5 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
75.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 6 yds to the OU 41Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
79.3%
Jovantae Barnes run for 4 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
78.1%
Jovantae Barnes run for 1 yd to the OU 46Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
77.6%
Jackson Arnold run for no gain to the OU 46Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-2
76.1%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Michael Batton for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 44Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
78.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22SF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
77.1%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 1:0692% → 94%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.6%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+28
91.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jake Roberts for 28 yds to the HOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
95.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
95.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-3
95.4%
J. Arnold takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 23
OWN 42
0
94.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:2310% → 10%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
90.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
90.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 5 yds to the HOU 18Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+4
91.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 4 yds to the HOU 22Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+14
91.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 14 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
89.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 19 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:38
Timeout Houston, clock 01:38
+15.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+10.4
TD · Q3 13:15
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 44 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com