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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTEX score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:10 · Tyler Keltner 42 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:20: Gunnar Helm 7 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +2.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:21: Q. Wisner run for 36 yds, Q. Wisner fumbled, forced by R. Spears-Jennings, recovered by TEX S. Bolden for a TD (B. Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +8.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:40: Quintrevion Wisner 43 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +8.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:25: Matthew Golden pass incomplete to Ryan Wingo — TEX win probability +2.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:01: Bert Auburn 41 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 11:40OU 4th & 4 at TEX 27, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.7%48% to convertField goalTheir call16.7%−<0.162% to makePunt16.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:12TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 34, tiedClose callPunted · 82.7% before the snapGo for it82.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:52TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snapGo for it79.4%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.5%average punt
- Q1 0:10OU 4th & 6 at TEX 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.4% before the snapGo for it23.4%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call23.4%66% to makePunt22.0%−1.4average punt
- Q2 8:48OU 4th & 10 at OU 45, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snapGo for it22.4%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.1%average punt
- Q2 7:14TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 35, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snapGo for it75.5%−0.637% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.1%average punt
- Q2 4:19OU 4th & 3 at OU 46, down 4Close callPunted · 25.5% before the snapGo for it25.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:07TEX 4th & 11 at OU 26, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snapGo for it90.5%−1.026% to convertField goalTheir call91.6%64% to makePunt89.6%−2.0average punt
- Q3 12:06OU 4th & 4 at OU 36, down 18Close callPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it10.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 8:25TEX 4th & 2 at OU 10, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.0%55% to convertField goal91.3%−0.788% to makePunt87.1%−4.9average punt
- Q3 6:36OU 4th & 14 at OU 6, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snapGo for it7.1%−1.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.9%average punt
- Q3 1:01TEX 4th & 17 at OU 23, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snapGo for it93.7%−1.613% to convertField goalTheir call95.3%70% to makePunt91.0%−4.3average punt
- Q4 11:20OU 4th & 22 at OU 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q4 7:44TEX 4th & 11 at OU 11, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.222% to convertField goalTheir call98.5%87% to makePunt97.3%−1.2average punt
- Q4 6:27OU 4th & 3 at OU 32, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:11OU 4th & 9 at OU 43, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q2 11:20TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.3%97% to makeGo for two77.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:21TEX Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.3%97% to makeGo for two82.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:40TEX Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.0%97% to makeGo for two87.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:21TEX Touchdown, up 30 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEXDrive 1INT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1088% → 87%
OUDrive 2MISSED FG6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5613% → 14%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
12.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 12 yds to the TEX 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1986% → 86%
Q1 10:12
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+5
14.4%
Ian Ratliff punt for 37 yds for a 1ST down , Peyton Bowen returns for 5 yds to the OU 39 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jelani McDonald) to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT8 plays · -12 yds · 3:0115% → 16%
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-13
15.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Michael Taaffe for a loss of 13 yards to the OU 47Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 23
OWN 47
0
15.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Brenen Thompson for no gain to the OU 47Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 23
OWN 47
-5
15.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Robert Spears-Jennings) to the OU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0584% → 83%
OUDrive 6FG11 plays · 38 yds · 4:3417% → 21%
TEXDrive 7TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4479% → 82%
Q2 14:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+26
21.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 26 yds to the OU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
20.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 2 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+21
20.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 21 yds to the OU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 2:1820% → 20%
Q2 10:10
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+15
20.0%
Hawkins Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Sharp, Bauer (Holmes, Gavin), PENALTY TEX roughing passer (Gbenda, David) 15 yards to the OU45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OU.Similar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
21.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to J.J. Hester for 4 yds to the OU 49Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-4
21.6%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Barryn Sorrell for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 45Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+10
20.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 33 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 10 yds to the TEX 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2880% → 79%
Q2 7:14
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+14
21.4%
Ian Ratliff punt for 50 yds , Peyton Bowen returns for 14 yds to the OU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4821% → 23%
TEXDrive 11TD4 plays · 84 yds · 1:5378% → 85%
Q2 3:35
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-1
22.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 20Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+44
22.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 44 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
14.7%
Q. Wisner run for 36 yds, Q. Wisner fumbled, forced by R. Spears-Jennings, recovered by TEX S. Bolden for a TD (B. Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12FUMBLE3 plays · 10 yds · 0:2315% → 15%
TEXDrive 13TD1 play · 43 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FUMBLE2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
9.9%
Taylor Tatum run for 13 yds to the OU 38 Taylor Tatum fumbled, forced by Derek Williams Jr., recovered by TEX Derek Williams Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15MISSED FG9 plays · 12 yds · 1:1893% → 93%
OUDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3710% → 9%
Q3 12:06
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
9.0%
Luke Elzinga punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Silas Bolden at the TEX 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18DOWNS10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3492% → 93%
Q3 11:29
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+26
7.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 26 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:438% → 8%
TEXDrive 20FG12 plays · 45 yds · 5:3093% → 98%
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
6.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 6 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+23
5.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 23 yds to the OU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
4.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 11 yds to the OU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 12
OPP 18
-10
4.1%
Wisner, Quintrevion rush for 10 yards to the OU8, PENALTY TEX holding (Campbell, DJ) 10 yards to the OU28, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT11 plays · 19 yds · 4:293% → 2%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
3.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Zion Kearney for 10 yds to the OU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
3.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 10 yds to the OU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
3.0%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 6 yds to the OU 38Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
2.7%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 3 yds to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
2.5%
Hawkins Jr., Michael pass incomplete, PENALTY OU holding (Hickman, Branson) 10 yards to the OU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 20
OWN 33
-6
2.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Anthony Hill Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the OU 27Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 26
OWN 27
+6
2.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 6 yds to the OU 33Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 20
OWN 33
-2
2.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Anthony Hill Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 31Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 22
OWN 31
+55
2.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 48 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 55 yds to the OU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22FG8 plays · 13 yds · 3:3099% → 99%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
1.5%
Ewers, Quinn pass incomplete to Wingo, Ryan, PENALTY OU pass interference (McCullough, Dasan) 4 yards to the OU20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEX.Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+7
1.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 7 yds to the OU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
1.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
1.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 7 yds to the OU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24TD3 plays · 32 yds · 0:5999% → 100%
OUDrive 25END OF GAME19 plays · 69 yds · 5:130% → 0%
Q4 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
0.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Ivan Carreon for 12 yds to the OU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-10
0.1%
Tatum, Taylor rush for 3 yards to the OU49, PENALTY OU holding (Sexton, Jacob) 10 yards to the OU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 16
OWN 36
+7
0.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 7 yds to the OU 43Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
0.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Taylor Tatum for 4 yds to the TEX 39Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-6
0.1%
Taylor Tatum run for 4 yds to the TEX 35 Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bauer Sharp) to the TEX 45Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+13
0.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Zion Kearney for 13 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
0.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Zion Kearney for 7 yds to the TEX 25Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+7
0.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 7 yds to the TEX 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
0.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 5 yds to the TEX 13 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Roughing Passer (Barryn Sorrell) to the TEX 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:40
Quintrevion Wisner 43 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)
-8.1
TD · Q2 2:21
Q. Wisner run for 36 yds, Q. Wisner fumbled, forced by R. Spears-Jennings, recovered by TEX S. Bolden for a TD (B. Auburn KICK)
-8
TD · Q2 11:20
Gunnar Helm 7 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
-2.8