View as
Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:05 · Tyler Keltner 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:07: Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 14 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK) — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q1 0:43: Tyler Keltner 50 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:05: Tyler Keltner 42 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:28: Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 8 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK) — OU win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:36: Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 5 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK) — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 14:03TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q1 11:50OU 4th & 1 at TEM 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%71% to convertField goal98.7%−0.181% to makePunt98.3%−0.6average punt
- Q1 5:01TEM 4th & 17 at TEM 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q1 3:39OU 4th & 12 at OU 13, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q1 0:43OU 4th & 9 at TEM 33, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call98.4%49% to makePunt98.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:10OU 4th & 1 at TEM 49, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:48OU 4th & 1 at TEM 33, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.5%71% to convertField goal98.3%−0.349% to makePunt98.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:05OU 4th & 6 at TEM 24, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.3%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call98.3%68% to makePunt97.7%−0.6average punt
- Q2 6:50TEM 4th & 16 at TEM 13, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q2 2:59TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 27, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 1:38OU 4th & 4 at TEM 44, up 27Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%48% to convertField goal99.5%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call99.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:50OU 4th & 8 at OU 37, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 10:19TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 21, down 34Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:53OU 4th & 5 at TEM 5, up 34Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%92% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:07TEM 4th & 22 at OU 31, down 37Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.28% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%54% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 1:06OU 4th & 1 at OU 34, up 34Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:47TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 39, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 11:17OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:07OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:28OU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:36OU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:44OU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:11OU Touchdown, up 47 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:571% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:4699% → 99%
Q1 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+47
99.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 47 yds to the TEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 3 yds to the TEM 22Similar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 14 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3FUMBLE5 plays · 11 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.1%
Forrest Brock run for 7 yds to the TEM 43 Forrest Brock fumbled, forced by Ethan Downs, recovered by OU Da'Jon TerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4TD5 plays · 43 yds · 1:4399% → 99%
TEMDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 3:001% → 1%
Q1 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-7
99.0%
Forrest Brock sacked by Gracen Halton for a loss of 7 yards to the TEM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q1 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-4
99.0%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Latrell Jean for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7INT3 plays · -1 yds · 1:341% → 1%
OUDrive 8FG5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
TEMDrive 9FUMBLE6 plays · 33 yds · 2:471% → 1%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+28
98.9%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Dante Wright for 28 yds to the OU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+3
98.7%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Dante Wright for 3 yds Dante Wright fumbled, forced by Robert Spears-Jennings, recovered by OU Robert Spears-JenningsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10FG13 plays · 34 yds · 4:5199% → 99%
TEMDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:071% → 1%
OUDrive 12TD5 plays · 44 yds · 1:2299% → 100%
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+18
99.0%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the TEM 41 for a 1ST down Temple Penalty, Personal Foul (Sekou Kromah) to the TEM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 6 yds to the TEM 20Similar
Q2 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 8 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 2:291% → 0%
OUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
TEMDrive 15FUMBLE4 plays · 1 yds · 0:240% → 0%
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-2
99.8%
Brock, Forrest pass complete to Smith, Joquez for 7 yards to the TEMPLE12, PENALTY TEMPLE holding (Faminu, James) 2 yards to the TEMPLE3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+3
99.8%
Joquez Smith run for 3 yds to the TEM 6 Joquez Smith fumbled, forced by Gracen Halton, recovered by OU Billy Bowman Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16TD3 plays · 6 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q2 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 5 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17END OF HALF3 plays · 15 yds · 0:190% → 0%
OUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 1 yd to the OU 36Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-4
99.8%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Demerick Morris and Cam'Ron Stewart for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 32Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+5
99.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 5 yds to the OU 37Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q3 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+7
99.8%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Antonio Jones for 7 yds to the TEM 21Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 1
OWN 21
-5
99.8%
Brock, Forrest rush for 3 yards to the TEMPLE24, PENALTY TEMPLE illegal formation 5 yards to the TEMPLE16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+5
99.8%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Dante Wright for 5 yds to the TEM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20FG9 plays · 52 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+8
99.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the TEM 8 for a 1ST down Temple Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Torey Richardson) to the TEM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21FG12 plays · 44 yds · 4:460% → 0%
Q3 7:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+34
99.9%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Antwain Littleton for 19 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST down Oklahoma Penalty, Personal Foul (Robert Spears-Jennings) to the OU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+14
99.9%
Forrest Brock pass complete to John Adams for 14 yds to the OU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-7
99.9%
Forrest Brock sacked by Ethan Downs for a loss of 7 yards to the OU 26Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 17
OPP 26
-5
99.9%
Forrest Brock sacked by Ashton Sanders and Gracen Halton for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 4 yds to the OU 29Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.9%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Tyquan King for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 24Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
99.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 10 yds to the OU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:190% → 0%
OUDrive 24FUMBLE RETURN TD6 plays · 4 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
TEMDrive 25INT9 plays · 42 yds · 4:100% → 0%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
100.0%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Ashton Allen for 9 yds to the TEM 45Similar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
100.0%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Landon Morris for 16 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-41
100.0%
Forrest Brock pass intercepted Jaydan Hardy return for 26 yds to the OU 7 Oklahoma Penalty, Personal Foul (Taylor Wein) to the OU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26TD10 plays · 85 yds · 4:23100% → 100%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
100.0%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Zion Ragins for 7 yds to the TEM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 27Uncategorized7 plays · 17 yds · 2:520% → 0%
Q4 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
100.0%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Ashton Allen for 10 yds to the TEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
100.0%
Forrest Brock pass complete to Xavier Irvin for 10 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
100.0%
Forrest Brock sacked by Markus Strong for a loss of 7 yards to the TEM 44Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 17
OWN 44
-2
100.0%
Forrest Brock sacked by Markus Strong for a loss of 2 yards to the TEM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:28
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 8 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK)
+0.5
FG · Q2 8:05
Tyler Keltner 42 yd FG GOOD
+0.2
TD · Q1 8:07
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Deion Burks for 14 yds for a TD (Tyler Keltner KICK)
+0.1