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ALA

Alabama 3 at Oklahoma 24

OU
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:29 · Luke Elzinga punt for 39 yds , Ryan Williams returns for no gain to the ALA 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior−11.9Home team on offense+26.9Score differential+18.1Garbage-time factor+10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:37: Xavier Robinson run for 18 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +11.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:37: Zach Schmit kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — ALA win probability +3.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:00: Jackson Arnold pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 5 yds to the ALA 9 — OU win probability +6.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:37: Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +15.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:05: Kip Lewis 49 Yd Interception Return (Zach Schmit Kick) — OU win probability +20.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:03OU 4th & 6 at OU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:30ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:23ALA 4th & 3 at OU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:40OU 4th & 10 at ALA 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:12ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:14OU 4th & 4 at ALA 11, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:51ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:46ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:29OU 4th & 7 at OU 17, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:20OU 4th & 10 at ALA 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:53ALA 4th & 10 at OU 35, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:00OU 4th & 2 at ALA 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 0:37OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:37OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:05OU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4416% → 17%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
16.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 12 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
16.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 1 yd to the OU 37Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
16.8%
Zion Ragins run for 3 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
17.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+8
17.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 43 yds , Ryan Williams returns for 8 yds to the ALA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3083% → 82%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
17.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the ALA 26Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
17.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive Offside (R Mason Thomas) to the ALA 31Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
17.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the ALA 32Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
17.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
18.0%
James Burnip punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:4118% → 19%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
18.0%
Xavier Robinson run for 40 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
18.6%
Taylor Tatum run for 2 yds to the ALA 33Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+6
18.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 6 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+6
19.2%
Taylor Tatum run for 6 yds to the ALA 21 Taylor Tatum fumbled, recovered by ALA Deontae LawsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4FG
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1281% → 79%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
18.9%
Alabama Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Elijah Pritchett) to the ALA 16Similar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
18.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 15
OWN 16
-1
19.0%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 15Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+32
19.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 32 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
19.2%
Justice Haynes run for 7 yds to the OU 46Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+5
19.3%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
19.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the OU 37Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-4
19.9%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 41Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+30
20.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 30 yds to the OU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
20.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 7 yds to the OU 4Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-3
20.4%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 7Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+3
20.9%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the OU 4Similar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
21.3%
Graham Nicholson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:3521% → 23%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
21.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 11 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
21.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 9 yds to the OU 45Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+6
22.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 6 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+28
23.1%
Jackson Arnold run for 28 yds to the ALA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
24.0%
Gavin Sawchuk run for no gain to the ALA 21Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
24.4%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Bauer SharpSimilar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
23.8%
Brenen Thompson pass incomplete to Bauer SharpSimilar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
23.1%
Zach Schmit 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2277% → 76%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
22.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
22.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-2
23.1%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 19Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
23.9%
James Burnip punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Peyton Bowen at the OU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 5:5224% → 31%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
24.0%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the OU 41Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
24.8%
Jackson Arnold run for 1 yd to the OU 42Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+19
24.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 19 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
26.0%
Xavier Robinson run for 12 yds to the ALA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
27.0%
Jackson Arnold run for no gain to the ALA 27Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
27.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 8 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+2
26.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the ALA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
28.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 1 yd to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+2
28.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the ALA 14Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+3
28.0%
Jacob Jordan run for 3 yds to the ALA 11Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
30.6%
Zach Schmit 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1973% → 71%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.2%
Jam Miller run for 9 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
26.3%
Jam Miller run for 8 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
26.2%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-5
26.4%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 39Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+5
28.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ALA 44Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
27.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to CJ DippreSimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
28.9%
James Burnip punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:0832% → 49%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
31.7%
Xavier Robinson run for 2 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
32.1%
Xavier Robinson run for 6 yds to the OU 41Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
33.5%
Xavier Robinson run for 4 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
34.5%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 8 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
35.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Xavier Robinson for no gain to the ALA 47Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+5
35.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 5 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
36.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 6 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+3
37.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jake Roberts for 3 yds to the ALA 33Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
37.3%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the ALA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
39.0%
Jackson Arnold run for no gain to the ALA 30Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+12
37.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 12 yds to the ALA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
49.2%
Xavier Robinson run for 18 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:1854% → 54%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
46.0%
Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 15Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
46.4%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the ALA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:4654% → 55%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.8%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
45.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 14 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-25
45.1%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted Eli Bowen return for 25 yds to the ALA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:2351% → 68%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
51.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 5 yds to the ALA 9Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+5
52.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 5 yds to the ALA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
52.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the ALA 1Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.1%
Xavier Robinson run for no gain to the ALA 1Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.2%
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13INT TD
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:2234% → 12%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
65.4%
Justice Haynes run for 6 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
65.8%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
66.9%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
66.5%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
66.9%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
67.9%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 45Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-49
88.2%
Kip Lewis 49 Yd Interception Return (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:1111% → 9%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 6 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
88.6%
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
89.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
89.4%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 36Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
90.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
90.8%
James Burnip punt for 62 yds, downed at the OU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:1191% → 94%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
90.9%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the OU 5Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+9
91.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 9 yds to the OU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
90.4%
Xavier Robinson run for 6 yds to the OU 20Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 4
OWN 20
-2
91.1%
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 18Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-1
93.5%
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 17Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
93.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 39 yds , Ryan Williams returns for no gain to the ALA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:176% → 3%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
93.7%
Jalen Milroe sacked by R Mason Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 39Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+7
94.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 7 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+11
95.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 11 yds to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
96.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 8 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
95.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-1
95.8%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 36Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 3
OPP 36
-5
97.1%
Alabama Penalty, Illegal Touching (Ryan Williams) to the OU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:4397% → 98%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
97.4%
Xavier Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 40Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+16
97.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 16 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
97.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 5 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
98.1%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-3
98.1%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Malachi Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 39Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 5
OPP 39
-5
98.1%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 44Similar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
98.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 43 yds , Ryan Williams returns for no gain to the ALA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18INT
16 plays · 64 yds · 3:222% → 1%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
98.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the ALA 3Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
98.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+28
98.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 28 yds to the ALA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
98.3%
Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jaeden Roberts) to the ALA 21Similar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 20
OWN 21
0
98.4%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Richard YoungSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 20
OWN 21
+7
98.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Richard Young for 7 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+15
98.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 15 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
98.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 5 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+5
98.5%
Oklahoma Penalty, Delay of Game (Kobie McKinzie) to the OU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
98.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 12 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
98.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jam MillerSimilar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
98.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-9
98.7%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted Woodi Washington return for 9 yds to the OU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19END OF GAME
12 plays · 34 yds · 6:2299% → 100%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.4%
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd to the OU 45Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+2
99.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the OU 47Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+18
99.6%
Jackson Arnold run for 18 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.6%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
99.6%
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+1
99.7%
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd to the ALA 27Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+3
99.8%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the ALA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.8%
Xavier Robinson run for 2 yds to the ALA 22Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
99.8%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-3
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:05
Kip Lewis 49 Yd Interception Return (Zach Schmit Kick)
+20.3
TD · Q3 11:37
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
+15
TD · Q2 0:37
Xavier Robinson run for 18 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com