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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Sam Franklin run for 11 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:09: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 18 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:22: Xavier Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +9.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 2:13: Zach Schmit 44 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +4.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:45: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 40 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:48: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +13.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 12:36LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 42, tiedClose callPunted · 65.5% before the snapGo for it65.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:15OU 4th & 8 at OU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snapGo for it34.3%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.4%average punt
- Q1 4:53OU 4th & 6 at OU 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snapGo for it31.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt64.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 12:20LSU 4th & 9 at OU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snapGo for it63.6%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.9%average punt
- Q2 10:24OU 4th & 6 at OU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.2%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.7%average punt
- Q2 8:39LSU 4th & 16 at OU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snapGo for it61.9%−1.214% to convertField goalTheir call63.1%80% to makePunt59.6%−3.5average punt
- Q2 2:13OU 4th & 12 at LSU 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snapGo for it32.3%−1.323% to convertField goalTheir call33.6%64% to makePunt28.9%−4.6average punt
- Q3 11:39OU 4th & 8 at OU 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.5%−1.034% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.6%average punt
- Q3 0:31LSU 4th & 1 at OU 49, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt91.0%−1.8average punt
- Q4 14:47LSU 4th & 4 at OU 4, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snapGo for it93.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call92.5%−0.493% to makePunt87.1%−5.8average punt
- Q4 13:02OU 4th & 17 at OU 18, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it3.2%−1.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q4 10:21LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 46, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snapGo for it96.0%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.1%average punt
- Q4 6:29OU 4th & 6 at OU 37, down 17Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.8%average punt
- Q4 3:19LSU 4th & 7 at OU 15, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call97.9%83% to makePunt96.7%−1.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:09LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.3%97% to makeGo for two67.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:22OU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.9%97% to makeGo for two42.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:45LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.3%97% to makeGo for two71.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:48LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.9%97% to makeGo for two86.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLSUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:2464% → 64%
OUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2136% → 36%
Q1 12:36
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+2
63.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 2 yds to the OU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD7 plays · 53 yds · 4:0664% → 67%
Q1 11:15
2ND & 7
50
+16
64.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 16 yds to the OU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+11
64.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ka'Morreun Pimpton for 11 yds to the OU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
64.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for no gain to the OU 18Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
66.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 18 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0834% → 34%
LSUDrive 5FUMBLE TD6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2766% → 62%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
66.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 9 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
62.2%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked for a loss of 10 yards Garrett Nussmeier fumbled, recovered by OU R Mason Thomas , return for 0 yards for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 5:5863% → 62%
Q1 3:18
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+2
62.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 2 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+15
62.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 15 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
63.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for no gain to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-7
64.2%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by R Mason Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
62.0%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Peyton Bowen at the OU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5639% → 38%
LSUDrive 8FG7 plays · 44 yds · 0:5764% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1736% → 48%
OUDrive 10FG12 plays · 49 yds · 4:5536% → 42%
LSUDrive 11TD7 plays · 66 yds · 1:1364% → 79%
Q2 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
64.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 6 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
65.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 7 yds to the OU 47Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+7
66.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 7 yds to the OU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
79.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 40 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 2 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:2128% → 25%
LSUDrive 14TD9 plays · 88 yds · 4:5175% → 90%
Q3 11:39
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
74.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for no gain to the LSU 10Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+14
73.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 14 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
75.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for no gain to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+16
76.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 16 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
89.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15INT8 plays · 39 yds · 4:2613% → 12%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
86.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 11 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
86.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 3 yds to the OU 42Similar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
85.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 4 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-16
88.5%
Bauer Sharp pass intercepted Sage Ryan return for 16 yds to the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16FG10 plays · 54 yds · 2:3593% → 96%
OUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:456% → 5%
LSUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 2:4197% → 97%
Q4 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-10
97.0%
NUSSMEIER, Garrett pass to the right incomplete thrown to the OU45. PENALTY LSU Holding on DURHAM, Caden enforced 10 yards from the LSU44 to the LSU34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+7
96.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+6
97.3%
Peyton Todd punt for 48 yds , Peyton Bowen returns for 6 yds to the OU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19DOWNS9 plays · 16 yds · 3:524% → 3%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
96.4%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Dominick McKinley for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 7Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 15
OWN 7
-1
96.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Sam Franklin for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 6Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 16
OWN 6
+15
96.6%
Jackson Arnold run for no gain to the OU 6 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Whit Weeks) to the OU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
96.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 2 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+5
96.2%
ARNOLD, Jackson pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SHARP, Bauer broken up by BURNS, Major at the LSU40. PENALTY LSU Offsides on RELIFORD, Gabriel enforced 5 yards from the OU35 to the OU40 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-3
96.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Sam Franklin for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 37Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 6
OWN 37
-9
97.0%
Jackson Arnold sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the OU 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OU , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20FG7 plays · 13 yds · 3:1098% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21END OF GAME10 plays · 75 yds · 3:121% → 1%
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
99.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 8 yds to the LSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:48
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+13.1
TD · Q2 0:45
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 40 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+12.8
TD · Q2 7:22
Xavier Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
-9.5